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FRANCE › LIGUE 3
17.10.2026 12:45
Stade Guy Piriou

Concarneau vs Bastia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Concarneau Win 51.2%
Draw 12.4%
Bastia Win 36.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concarneau1.6
Bastia1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concarneau Concarneau
WWDLW
23 GF / 14 GA
Bastia Bastia
WLDWL
11 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
9
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concarneau Concarneau 14 matches
Bastia Bastia 11 matches
Concarneau Statistic Bastia
7 Wins 3
5 Draws 3
2 Losses 5
23 Goals For 11
14 Goals Against 17
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
9 BTTS Yes 5
12 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Concarneau's more proactive style and Bastia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Bastia having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Concarneau arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 16 points compared to Bastia in 12 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Bastia.

Concarneau Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 16 points from 9 games, Concarneau bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 12:8, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Bastia Analysis

Bastia are currently 12 in the standings with 11 points from 9 matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 7:11 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Concarneau won 0 times, Bastia won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:8 from Concarneau's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
H2H summary: Concarneau wins 0, draws 4, Bastia wins 1

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 15:8 7 21
W W W D D
2 9 6 2 1 17:5 12 20
W L W W D
3 9 4 4 1 12:8 4 16
W D W W D
4 9 5 1 3 13:12 1 16
W W D W L
5 9 4 3 2 12:3 9 15
W D W D W
6 9 3 6 0 11:4 7 15
W D D D W
7 9 5 0 4 17:12 5 15
L W L W W
8 9 4 1 4 11:9 2 13
W L W L D
9 9 3 3 3 14:14 0 12
L L D L D
10 9 3 3 3 15:12 3 12
W L D W W
11 9 3 3 3 7:9 -2 12
L W D L D
12 9 3 2 4 7:11 -4 11
D L D W L
13 9 2 4 3 8:12 -4 10
L D D W D
14 9 2 3 4 7:11 -4 9
D D L L D
15 9 2 2 5 9:14 -5 8
L W L L D
16 9 2 1 6 6:12 -6 7
L W L L D
17 9 1 2 6 5:15 -10 5
L D D L L
18 9 1 1 7 7:22 -15 4
L L L D L
Promotion - Ligue 2
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
Relegation