ITALY SERIE A
02.05.2026 16:00
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Referee: M. Fabbri
Como
Match Timeline
Napoli
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
60'
K. De Bruyne ↔ F. Anguissa
Napoli
🟨
69'
Jacobo Ramón
Como
🔄
80'
A. Douvikas ↔ A. Morata
Como
🔄
80'
M. Baturina ↔ J. Rodriguez
Como
🔄
80'
A. Valle ↔ A. Moreno
Como
🔄
80'
A. Rrahmani ↔ L. Spinazzola
Napoli
🔄
86'
A. Diao ↔ M. Vojvoda
Como
🔄
86'
L. Da Cunha ↔ S. Roberto
Como
🟨
89'
Matteo Politano
Napoli

Como vs Napoli Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 66.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
66.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Como Win 45.5%
Draw 16.5%
Napoli Win 38%
Expected Goals (xG)
Como1.5
Napoli1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Como Como
WWDLW
71 GF / 34 GA
Napoli Napoli
WLDWL
67 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.78
Average Goals Scored
1.46
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
19
BTTS Yes
23
20
Over 2.5
21
5.23
Shots on Goal
4.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Como Como 40 matches
Napoli Napoli 46 matches
Como Statistic Napoli
20 Wins 25
12 Draws 10
8 Losses 11
71 Goals For 67
34 Goals Against 50
1.78 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
19 BTTS Yes 23
31 Over 1.5 35
20 Over 2.5 21
11 Over 3.5 11
18 Clean Sheets 16
9 Failed To Score 10
5.23 Shots On Goal 4.59
14.03 Total Shots 12.93
4.38 Corners 5.72
60.8% Ball Possession 56.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Napoli. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Como expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Napoli in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Napoli having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Como Analysis

Placed 5 with 61 points from 34 outings, Como continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 17 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses, while the 59:28 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Douvikas (12 goals), Nico Paz (12 goals), M. Baturina (6 goals), with creative support from J. Rodriguez (7 assists), Nico Paz (6 assists), M. Caqueret (5 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Napoli Analysis

Napoli approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 69 points after 34 outings. The return of 21 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 52:33, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Hojlund (10 goals), S. McTominay (9 goals), K. De Bruyne (5 goals), with creative support from M. Politano (5 assists), R. Hojlund (3 assists), S. McTominay (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Como won 2 times, Napoli won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:6 from Como's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.5%)
Predicted formations: Como 4-2-3-1 / Napoli 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Como wins 2, draws 3, Napoli wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4
Como Home
38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B