07.08.2026 20:15
Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra
Referee: J. Rivera
Comerciantes Unidos
Match Timeline
Cusco
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
F. Callejo · Assist: L. Colitto
Cusco
🟨
33'
Flavio Alcedo
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
49'
L. Colitto ↔ N. Silva
Cusco
🔄
61'
M. P. Carpio Ferro ↔ W. Ayovi
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
68'
Aldair Fuentes
Cusco
🔄
72'
A. Rodriguez ↔ J. Olivares
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
72'
J. Herrera ↔ T. Salinas
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
72'
Miguel Silveira ↔ Herrera Joel
Cusco
73'
F. Alcedo · Assist: W. Ayovi
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
76'
Juan Rodríguez
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
78'
C. Diez ↔ D. Soto
Cusco
🔄
78'
F. Callejo ↔ J. Tevez
Cusco
🟨
84'
Iván Colman
Cusco
86'
M. Sen · Assist: R. Vilca
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
89'
Juan Rodríguez
Comerciantes Unidos
🟥
89'
Juan Rodríguez
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
90'
M. Sen ↔ E. M. Perez Azambuya
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
90'
R. Vilca ↔ P. Guzman
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
90+5'
↔ C. Gamarra
Cusco
90'
A. Cossio · Assist: J. Olivares
Comerciantes Unidos

Comerciantes Unidos vs Cusco Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.6%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Comerciantes Unidos Win 55.6%
Draw 10.7%
Cusco Win 33.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Comerciantes Unidos1.29
Cusco1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WWDLW
25 GF / 29 GA
Cusco Cusco
WLDWL
35 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
13
BTTS Yes
17
9
Over 2.5
15
4.35
Shots on Goal
4.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 22 matches
Cusco Cusco 27 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Statistic Cusco
5 Wins 10
9 Draws 5
8 Losses 12
25 Goals For 35
29 Goals Against 41
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
13 BTTS Yes 17
14 Over 1.5 20
9 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 7
4.35 Shots On Goal 4.27
13.25 Total Shots 11.42
3.75 Corners 3.46
46.6% Ball Possession 55%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cusco. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Comerciantes Unidos expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cusco in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cusco having the stronger overall control.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

So far, Comerciantes Unidos have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 21 points from 17 matches. The record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 18:20 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Matías Sen (3 goals), Josuee Herrera (2 goals), Juan Rodríguez (1 goals), with creative support from Josuee Herrera (2 assists), Mathías Carpio (2 assists), Juan Rodríguez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cusco Analysis

So far, Cusco have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 27 points from 17 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 21:24 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Facundo Callejo (4 goals), Iván Colman (3 goals), José Miguel Manzaneda (2 goals), with creative support from Lucas Colitto (3 assists), Facundo Callejo (2 assists), Iván Colman (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Comerciantes Unidos won 2 times, Cusco won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:14 from Comerciantes Unidos's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1 / Cusco 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Comerciantes Unidos wins 2, draws 1, Cusco wins 5

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5
Cusco Away
26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2