WALES PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Llanelian Road
Referee: B. Markham-Jones
Colwyn Bay
Match Timeline
Penybont
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
66'
A. Baker ↔ C. Green
Penybont
🔄
67'
A. Edwards ↔ J. Cumming
Colwyn Bay
🔄
73'
J. Clay ↔ J. Woodiwiss
Penybont
🔄
77'
A. Cvetkovic ↔ N. Daley
Penybont
🔄
82'
M. Hill ↔ A. Williams
Colwyn Bay
🔄
88'
A. Moore ↔ A. Williams
Colwyn Bay

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 89.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
89.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
58.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Colwyn Bay Win 89.4%
Draw 10.6%
Penybont Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Colwyn Bay1.39
Penybont1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay
WWDLW
41 GF / 37 GA
Penybont Penybont
WLDWL
40 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
15
BTTS Yes
14
13
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 32 matches
Penybont Penybont 34 matches
Colwyn Bay Statistic Penybont
12 Wins 11
9 Draws 9
11 Losses 14
41 Goals For 40
37 Goals Against 53
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
15 BTTS Yes 14
21 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 9
9 Clean Sheets 11
11 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 0-0, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Penybont. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Penybont having the stronger overall control. Penybont arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Colwyn Bay Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Colwyn Bay arrive from a league campaign that has them 6 with 30 points after 22 matches. With 8 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses plus a goal ratio of 29:25, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. Davies (13 goals), L. Robles (6 goals), N. Peate (5 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, the return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Penybont Analysis

Penybont come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 38 points from 22 matches. Their record of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats with goals at 36:31 reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their attacking weight falls on J. Crole (11 goals), N. Daley (11 goals), I. Phillips (4 goals), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Colwyn Bay won 4 times, Penybont won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:14 from Colwyn Bay's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.89 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
H2H summary: Colwyn Bay wins 4, draws 2, Penybont wins 3

Lineups

Colwyn Bay
Formation
Penybont
A. Brown
A. Brown
N. Peate
N. Peate
L. Sirrell
L. Sirrell
R. Astles
R. Astles
M. Hill
M. Hill
A. Edwards
A. Edwards
G. Hughes
G. Hughes
A. Moore
A. Moore
J. Davies
J. Davies
L. Robles
L. Robles
E. Roberts
E. Roberts
L. Armstrong
L. Armstrong
K. Ludvigsen
K. Ludvigsen
A. Baker
A. Baker
B. Borge
B. Borge
O. Pritchard
O. Pritchard
J. Clay
J. Clay
M. Davies
M. Davies
E. Cann
E. Cann
N. Wood
N. Wood
A. Cvetkovic
A. Cvetkovic
C. Venables
C. Venables
Colwyn Bay 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
51
A. Brown
4
N. Peate
5
L. Sirrell
21
R. Astles
19
M. Hill
↓ 82'
23
A. Edwards
↓ 67'
24
G. Hughes
12
A. Moore
↓ 88'
9
J. Davies
10
L. Robles
11
E. Roberts
Substitutes
3
S. Hart
7
J. Cumming
↑ 67'
14
A. Williams
↑ 88'
20
A. Williams
↑ 82'
22
I. Kargbo
38
B. Hoban
45
L. Murphy
Penybont 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
L. Armstrong
2
K. Ludvigsen
21
A. Baker
↓ 66'
16
B. Borge
8
O. Pritchard
15
J. Clay
↓ 73'
6
M. Davies
10
E. Cann
7
N. Wood
33
A. Cvetkovic
↓ 77'
9
C. Venables
Substitutes
5
J. Woodiwiss
↑ 73'
11
N. Daley
↑ 77'
17
O. Warlow
24
A. Matthews
29
C. Green
↑ 66'
14
I. Phillips
72
J. Villacorta
Last matches: Colwyn Bay
18.04.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
0
2
L
28.03.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
0
0
D
20.03.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
3
1
W
27.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
0
3
L
21.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
3
1
W
13.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
0
2
L
07.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2
2
D
13.01.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
0
1
L
01.01.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Flint Town United
1
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
2
1
W
05.12.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
2
L
29.11.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
5
4
W
15.11.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Haverfordwest County AFC
0
1
L
08.11.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
llanelli AFC
3
1
W
01.11.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
1
4
L
25.10.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Briton Ferry
2
0
W
11.10.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Cardiff MET
0
0
D
Last matches: Penybont
02.05.26
Pre
Penybont
Haverfordwest County AFC
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
Penybont
Barry Town
0
2
L
28.03.26
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pre
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
Penybont
The New Saints
1
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Penybont
Barry Town
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
1
3
L
14.02.26
Pre
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0
0
D
07.02.26
Pre
Penybont
The New Saints
0
6
L
24.01.26
Pre
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0
0
D
13.01.26
Pre
Penybont
Cardiff MET
1
1
D
01.01.26
Pre
Penybont
llanelli AFC
1
0
W
26.12.25
Pre
Penybont
Briton Ferry
1
1
D
09.12.25
Pre
Penybont
Barry Town
1
1
D
29.11.25
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
4
5
L
15.11.25
Pre
Penybont
Bala Town
2
1
W
08.11.25
Pre
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0
4
L
01.11.25
Pre
Penybont
Flint Town United
4
3
W
25.10.25
Pre
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0
2
L
H2H: Colwyn Bay vs Penybont
25.04.26
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
0
0
D
28.03.26
H2H
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
0
0
D
21.02.26
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
3
1
W
29.11.25
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
5
4
W
27.09.25
H2H
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
1
0
L
16.03.24
H2H
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
5
0
L
03.02.24
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
1
2
L
25.11.23
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
2
1
W
09.09.23
H2H
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
0
1
W
Last matches: Colwyn Bay
03.04.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
0
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
3
1
W
21.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
3
1
W
13.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
0
2
L
24.01.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2
2
D
01.01.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Flint Town United
1
2
L
29.11.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
5
4
W
08.11.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
llanelli AFC
3
1
W
01.11.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
1
4
L
11.10.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Cardiff MET
0
0
D
04.10.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
1
0
W
23.09.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Bala Town
0
1
L
13.09.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Haverfordwest County AFC
3
0
W
30.08.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Briton Ferry
2
2
D
25.08.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
1
1
D
10.08.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
1
D
H2H at home: Colwyn Bay
25.04.26
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
0
0
D
21.02.26
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
3
1
W
29.11.25
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
5
4
W
03.02.24
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
1
2
L
25.11.23
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
2
1
W
Last matches: Penybont
18.04.26
Pre
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Penybont
Barry Town
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
1
3
L
07.02.26
Pre
Penybont
The New Saints
0
6
L
01.01.26
Pre
Penybont
llanelli AFC
1
0
W
29.11.25
Pre
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
4
5
L
08.11.25
Pre
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0
4
L
01.11.25
Pre
Penybont
Flint Town United
4
3
W
11.10.25
Pre
Penybont
The New Saints
2
6
L
03.10.25
Pre
Penybont
Briton Ferry
0
0
D
23.09.25
Pre
Penybont
Cardiff MET
4
0
W
20.09.25
Pre
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
2
1
W
06.09.25
Pre
Penybont
Bala Town
0
0
D
22.08.25
Pre
Penybont
Barry Town
3
2
W
08.08.25
Pre
Penybont
Haverfordwest County AFC
1
0
W
10.07.25
UEF
Penybont
Kauno Žalgiris
0
3
L
H2H away: Penybont
25.04.26
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
0
0
D
21.02.26
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
3
1
L
29.11.25
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
5
4
L
03.02.24
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
1
2
W
25.11.23
H2H
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
2
1
L

Standings

Cymru Premier
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 17 2 3 59:19 40 53
W W W L W
2 22 14 5 3 48:25 23 47
D L D W W
3 22 11 5 6 36:31 5 38
W W L L D
4 22 9 7 6 44:32 12 34
W W L L L
5 22 7 9 6 33:25 8 30
L L W D W
6 22 8 6 8 29:25 4 30
L D L D W
7 22 6 10 6 33:36 -3 28
D L W W L
8 22 6 7 9 32:40 -8 25
W W L D W
9 22 6 6 10 30:39 -9 24
L W W W W
10 22 6 5 11 19:30 -11 23
L W L W D
11 22 5 6 11 34:48 -14 21
D L L D D
12 22 2 2 18 12:59 -47 8
L L W L L
Championship round
Relegation Round