Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
89.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
58.6%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
56.9%
|
- |
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Colwyn Bay
32 matches
Penybont
34 matches
| Colwyn Bay | Statistic | Penybont |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wins | 11 |
| 9 | Draws | 9 |
| 11 | Losses | 14 |
| 41 | Goals For | 40 |
| 37 | Goals Against | 53 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.56 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 14 |
| 21 | Over 1.5 | 24 |
| 13 | Over 2.5 | 15 |
| 8 | Over 3.5 | 9 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 11 |
| 11 | Failed To Score | 14 |
| 0 | Shots On Goal | 0 |
| 0 | Total Shots | 0 |
| 0 | Corners | 0 |
| 0% | Ball Possession | 0% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 0-0, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Penybont. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Penybont having the stronger overall control. Penybont arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.
Ahead of this knockout test, Colwyn Bay arrive from a league campaign that has them 6 with 30 points after 22 matches. With 8 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses plus a goal ratio of 29:25, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. Davies (13 goals), L. Robles (6 goals), N. Peate (5 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, the return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
Penybont come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 38 points from 22 matches. Their record of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats with goals at 36:31 reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their attacking weight falls on J. Crole (11 goals), N. Daley (11 goals), I. Phillips (4 goals), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.
Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Colwyn Bay won 4 times, Penybont won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:14 from Colwyn Bay's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.89 goals per game.
Lineups
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
Colwyn Bay
Flint Town United
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Haverfordwest County AFC
Colwyn Bay
llanelli AFC
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
Colwyn Bay
Briton Ferry
Colwyn Bay
Cardiff MET
Penybont
Haverfordwest County AFC
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
Barry Town
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
The New Saints
Penybont
Barry Town
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
The New Saints
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
Cardiff MET
Penybont
llanelli AFC
Penybont
Briton Ferry
Penybont
Barry Town
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
Bala Town
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
Flint Town United
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
Flint Town United
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
llanelli AFC
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
Colwyn Bay
Cardiff MET
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
Bala Town
Colwyn Bay
Haverfordwest County AFC
Colwyn Bay
Briton Ferry
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
Barry Town
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
The New Saints
Penybont
llanelli AFC
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
Flint Town United
Penybont
The New Saints
Penybont
Briton Ferry
Penybont
Cardiff MET
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
Bala Town
Penybont
Barry Town
Penybont
Haverfordwest County AFC
Penybont
Kauno Žalgiris
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 59:19 | 40 | 53 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 2 | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 48:25 | 23 | 47 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 3 |
Penybont
Away
|
22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 36:31 | 5 | 38 |
W
W
L
L
D
|
| 4 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 44:32 | 12 | 34 |
W
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 5 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 33:25 | 8 | 30 |
L
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 |
Colwyn Bay
Home
|
22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 29:25 | 4 | 30 |
L
D
L
D
W
|
| 7 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 33:36 | -3 | 28 |
D
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 8 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32:40 | -8 | 25 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 30:39 | -9 | 24 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 19:30 | -11 | 23 |
L
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 34:48 | -14 | 21 |
D
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 12 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 12:59 | -47 | 8 |
L
L
W
L
L
|