🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
12.09.2026 23:30
ScottsMiracle-Gro Field

Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 72.9%
Odds 2.00
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.44
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
72.9%
2.00
BTTS Yes
88%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.44
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.34
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
9.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Columbus Crew Win 27.1%
Draw 23.1%
New York Red Bulls Win 49.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Columbus Crew1.7
New York Red Bulls1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Columbus Crew Columbus Crew
WWDLW
40 GF / 44 GA
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WLDWL
45 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
2.03
20
BTTS Yes
20
19
Over 2.5
20
3.75
Shots on Goal
4.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 27 matches
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 30 matches
Columbus Crew Statistic New York Red Bulls
7 Wins 9
6 Draws 6
14 Losses 15
40 Goals For 45
44 Goals Against 61
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 2.03
20 BTTS Yes 20
24 Over 1.5 27
19 Over 2.5 20
10 Over 3.5 15
4 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 8
3.75 Shots On Goal 4.75
11.25 Total Shots 13.21
4.92 Corners 5.79
55.3% Ball Possession 53.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward New York Red Bulls. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward New York Red Bulls having the stronger overall control.

Columbus Crew Analysis

With 20 points from 22 games and a place of 15, Columbus Crew still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 31:39, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Diego Rossi (4 goals), Maximilian Arfsten (3 goals), Dániel Gazdag (3 goals), with creative support from Mohamed Farsi (3 assists), Maximilian Arfsten (2 assists), Hugo Picard (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

With 26 points from 22 games and a place of 8, New York Red Bulls still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 32:46 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (4 goals), Cade Cowell (2 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), Emil Forsberg (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Columbus Crew won 6 times, New York Red Bulls won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:18 from Columbus Crew's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.86 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.9%)
Predicted formations: Columbus Crew 4-4-2 / New York Red Bulls -
Missing players: Columbus Crew 4, New York Red Bulls 4
H2H summary: Columbus Crew wins 6, draws 3, New York Red Bulls wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 16 5 3 48:19 29 53
L D W W W
2 24 12 8 4 59:44 15 44
D D W L D
3 24 12 4 8 39:30 9 40
W L W D W
4 23 11 6 6 44:33 11 39
D D D D W
5 24 11 6 7 42:33 9 39
W D W W D
6 24 9 4 11 41:56 -15 31
W W D W L
7 23 8 7 8 49:56 -7 31
L L D W D
8 24 8 6 10 41:39 2 30
W W W D D
9 24 7 8 9 37:33 4 29
L D D D L
10 24 6 11 7 38:43 -5 29
W D D W D
11 23 6 10 7 30:37 -7 28
W D L L D
12 24 7 6 11 32:48 -16 27
L D L D L
13 24 6 5 13 35:41 -6 23
L W L L L
14 24 6 4 14 29:43 -14 22
L D L W W
15 24 5 6 13 31:50 -19 21
L L L D W
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)