ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
03.10.2026 14:00
Colchester Community Stadium

Colchester vs Port Vale Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Colchester Win 74.4%
Draw 6.8%
Port Vale Win 18.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Colchester1.28
Port Vale1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Colchester Colchester
WWDLW
23 GF / 20 GA
Port Vale Port Vale
WLDWL
13 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
8
BTTS Yes
3
8
Over 2.5
3
4.13
Shots on Goal
2.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Colchester Colchester 15 matches
Port Vale Port Vale 11 matches
Colchester Statistic Port Vale
4 Wins 5
6 Draws 2
5 Losses 4
23 Goals For 13
20 Goals Against 10
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
8 BTTS Yes 3
12 Over 1.5 6
8 Over 2.5 3
7 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 4
4.13 Shots On Goal 2.86
12.63 Total Shots 10.86
4.13 Corners 4.71
53.4% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Port Vale arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Port Vale. Colchester arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 15 with 9 points compared to Port Vale in 23 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Colchester expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Port Vale in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Port Vale having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Colchester Analysis

Colchester sit 15 with 9 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, together with goals at 8:10, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through H. Anderson (2 goals), M. Sesay (1 goals), K. Kouassi (1 goals), with creative support from O. Thorn (2 assists), M. Sesay (1 assists), E. Iandolo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Port Vale Analysis

Port Vale sit 23 with 5 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 3:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on G. Byers (2 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Colchester won 6 times, Port Vale won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:18 from Colchester's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
Predicted formations: Colchester 4-2-3-1 / Port Vale 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Colchester wins 6, draws 5, Port Vale wins 4

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 13:10 3 16
W W W D W
2 7 4 3 0 17:10 7 15
W W D D D
3 9 3 6 0 11:7 4 15
W D D D D
4 9 4 3 2 16:14 2 15
L W D W D
5 9 5 0 4 14:14 0 15
L W L L W
6 8 4 2 2 16:10 6 14
W L W D L
7 8 3 5 0 11:5 6 14
D W D D D
8 9 4 2 3 15:12 3 14
W L W W D
9 9 3 4 2 13:10 3 13
L L W W D
10 9 3 4 2 11:9 2 13
D L W W W
11 9 4 1 4 10:11 -1 13
W W W D L
12 9 2 5 2 12:12 0 11
L D D L W
13 9 3 2 4 9:13 -4 11
L D L L W
14 9 3 2 4 9:14 -5 11
W D D W L
15 9 2 4 3 12:12 0 10
D W D D L
16 9 2 4 3 13:14 -1 10
W D D L W
17 9 2 4 3 11:12 -1 10
L D W D L
18 9 2 4 3 9:10 -1 10
L L L D W
19 8 2 4 2 10:12 -2 10
D D D L L
20 9 2 3 4 5:6 -1 9
W L D L D
21 8 2 1 5 9:13 -4 7
L L L L D
22 7 1 3 3 3:6 -3 6
L L W D D
23 7 1 2 4 3:9 -6 5
L W L L D
24 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League