17.05.2026 20:00
Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia
Referee: D. Ojeda
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Match Timeline
Sportivo Luqueno
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
B. Pinatares ↔ H. Gonzalez
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
46'
P. Riveros ↔ A. M. Martinez Cubilla
Sportivo Luqueno
🔄
57'
C. Colman ↔ J. Barrios
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
65'
J. Ramos ↔ W. Gonzalez
Sportivo Luqueno
🔄
65'
L. Comas ↔ O. Ruiz
Sportivo Luqueno
🔄
65'
S. Diaz ↔ M. Ojeda
Sportivo Luqueno
🟨
69'
I. Maggi
Sportivo Luqueno
🔄
74'
I. Torres ↔ A. Oviedo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
74'
A. Galeano ↔ V. Cespedes
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🟨
86'
D. Meza Montiel
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🟨
86'
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
86'
A. Alvarez ↔ H. Villamayor
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🟨
89'
A. Quinonez
Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Luqueno Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Win 62.6%
Draw 0%
Sportivo Luqueno Win 37.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo1.01
Sportivo Luqueno1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
WWDLW
13 GF / 41 GA
Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno
WLDWL
23 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.65
Average Goals Scored
1.15
2.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
9
BTTS Yes
13
8
Over 2.5
11
1.9
Shots on Goal
4.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo 20 matches
Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 20 matches
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Statistic Sportivo Luqueno
2 Wins 5
5 Draws 4
13 Losses 11
13 Goals For 23
41 Goals Against 31
0.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
2.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
9 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 1
9 Failed To Score 7
1.9 Shots On Goal 4.1
7.4 Total Shots 11.1
2.75 Corners 3.4
28.5% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Club Sp. San Lorenzo have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Sp. San Lorenzo expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Sportivo Luqueno in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sportivo Luqueno having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sportivo Luqueno.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Analysis

Club Sp. San Lorenzo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 11 points from 20 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 13:41, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Galeano (3 goals), J. Barrios (3 goals), Luis Cáceres (2 goals), with creative support from Héctor Villamayor (3 assists), J. Barrios (1 assists), A. Paez (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sportivo Luqueno Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Sportivo Luqueno have collected 19 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 23:31 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Iván Maggi (10 goals), Sebastián Quintana (4 goals), L. Comas (2 goals), with creative support from L. Comas (3 assists), Iván Maggi (2 assists), G. Bogado (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Club Sp. San Lorenzo won 5 times, Sportivo Luqueno won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:10 from Club Sp. San Lorenzo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-1-4-1 / Sportivo Luqueno 4-4-2
H2H summary: Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins 5, draws 4, Sportivo Luqueno wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 4 3 37:17 20 49
W W L D L
2 22 10 9 3 31:22 9 39
W D W W W
3 22 11 5 6 30:22 8 38
W L D L D
4 22 8 9 5 27:21 6 33
L L W D D
5 22 8 8 6 30:24 6 32
W W L L L
6 22 9 4 9 34:26 8 31
L D W W W
7 22 7 8 7 27:23 4 29
L W D L D
8 22 8 4 10 35:32 3 28
W L L W L
9 22 6 5 11 15:26 -11 23
L D L D W
10 22 5 7 10 18:35 -17 22
L D W W D
11 22 5 5 12 24:33 -9 20
L D L D W
12 22 3 6 13 14:41 -27 15
W D W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)