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09.11.2026 20:00
Estadio Gunther Vogel
Referee: Mario Alberto Diaz De Vivar
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Match Timeline
Rubio NU
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Lucas Andres Cohener Gonzalez
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
⚽
10'
J. Barrios · Assist: Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
⚽
13'
Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón · Assist: Franco Aragón
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
⚽
16'
Sergio Fretes · Assist: Marcelo Rubén Acosta Ríos
Rubio NU
🟨
36'
Javier Luis Torrente
Rubio NU
🟨
49'
Víctor Ramón Cabañas
Rubio NU
🔄
54'
Tobías Leiva ↔ E. Alfonso
Rubio NU
🔄
55'
Mauricio Roldan ↔ Steven·Perez
Rubio NU
🟨
63'
E. Alfonso
Rubio NU
🟨
69'
Franco Aragón
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
71'
Lucas Andres Cohener Gonzalez ↔ Héctor Villamayor
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
71'
Gastón Gerzel ↔ Alexis Doldán
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
71'
Rodi Ferreira ↔ Rodrigo Rojas
Rubio NU
🔄
72'
Marcelo Rubén Acosta Ríos ↔ Octavio Alfonso
Rubio NU
🟨
73'
Sergio Fretes
Rubio NU
🔄
77'
Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón ↔ Santiago Salcedo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
77'
I Fretes ↔ Teodoro Paredes
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
77'
Sergio Fretes ↔ Mauricio De Carvalho González
Rubio NU
⚽
84'
E. Alfonso
Rubio NU
🔄
87'
Hugo González ↔ R. Amarilla
Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Rubio NU Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 72.5%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.97
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
72.5%
1.22 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.97 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.24 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Win 27.5%
Draw 24.5%
Rubio NU Win 48%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo0.99
Rubio NU1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
W W L L D
8 GF / 8 GA
Rubio NU Rubio NU
L W L L D
4 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
0.65
Average Goals Scored
0.85
1.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
17
BTTS Yes
13
16
Over 2.5
15
2.23
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo 40 matches
Rubio NU Rubio NU 40 matches
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Statistic Rubio NU
5 Wins 10
10 Draws 9
25 Losses 21
26 Goals For 34
71 Goals Against 60
0.65 Avg Goals Scored 0.85
1.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
17 BTTS Yes 13
27 Over 1.5 25
16 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 10
19 Failed To Score 21
2.23 Shots On Goal 3.5
8.28 Total Shots 11.65
3.23 Corners 3.95
29.3% Ball Possession 43.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rubio NU. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Sp. San Lorenzo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Rubio NU in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rubio NU having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Analysis

Club Sp. San Lorenzo are currently 12 in the standings with 10 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 12:30 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by F. Aragón (3 goals), M. Ferreira (3 goals), J. Barrios (2 goals), with creative support from F. Aragón (1 assists), J. Barrios (1 assists), S. Salcedo (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rubio NU Analysis

Rubio NU are currently 10 in the standings with 16 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, while the 19:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Ruiz Díaz (2 goals), J. Vallejos (2 goals), S. Fretes (2 goals), with creative support from R. Ruiz Díaz (2 assists), W. Mendieta (2 assists), J. Vallejos (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Club Sp. San Lorenzo won 7 times, Rubio NU won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:15 from Club Sp. San Lorenzo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.5%)
Predicted formations: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-4-2 / Rubio NU 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins 7, draws 1, Rubio NU wins 6

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 3 3 37:14 23 42
W W W W W
2 19 10 4 5 31:18 13 34
W D L W W
3 19 10 3 6 28:20 8 33
W L L W L
4 19 9 5 5 26:14 12 32
L L W L W
5 19 8 7 4 21:17 4 31
L W W W L
6 19 8 6 5 18:21 -3 30
L D L D L
7 19 8 4 7 25:20 5 28
D W L W D
8 19 7 1 11 25:33 -8 22
W W L L W
9 19 4 7 8 19:28 -9 19
L L L L D
10 19 4 5 10 21:36 -15 17
D L W L L
11 19 4 4 11 21:33 -12 16
D L W D W
12 19 2 5 12 14:32 -18 11
D W W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)