Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
82.3%
|
- | |
| BTTS | No |
55%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
62.1%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Under 11.5 Corners |
74.2%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 3-0 |
-
|
- |
Club Nacional
Progreso
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Club Nacional
27 matches
Progreso
21 matches
| Club Nacional | Statistic | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wins | 4 |
| 4 | Draws | 4 |
| 11 | Losses | 13 |
| 39 | Goals For | 17 |
| 37 | Goals Against | 32 |
| 1.44 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.81 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.52 |
| 15 | BTTS Yes | 9 |
| 20 | Over 1.5 | 14 |
| 17 | Over 2.5 | 9 |
| 8 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 10 |
| 4 | Shots On Goal | 0 |
| 9.83 | Total Shots | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 39.5% | Ball Possession | 0% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Club Nacional's more proactive style and Progreso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Progreso. Club Nacional arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 32 points compared to Progreso in 16 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Progreso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Nacional expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Progreso in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Progreso having the stronger overall control.
Club Nacional are currently 6 in the standings with 32 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, while the 31:26 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
With 13 points from 20 games and a place of 16, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 13 defeats with a 16:32 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Nacional won 12 times, Progreso won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:9 from Club Nacional's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.
Lineups
Club Nacional
Progreso
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
Boston River
Club Nacional
Wanderers
Club Nacional
Danubio
Club Nacional
Juventud
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
Club Nacional
Albion FC
Club Nacional
Universitario
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
Cerro
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
Albion FC
Club Nacional
Universitario
Club Nacional
Danubio
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
Progreso
Danubio
Progreso
Club Nacional
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
Central Espanol
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
Wanderers
Progreso
Albion FC
Progreso
Danubio
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Cerro Largo
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Wanderers
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Penarol
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
Boston River
Progreso
Cerro
Club Nacional
Progreso
Club Nacional
Boston River
Club Nacional
Wanderers
Club Nacional
Juventud
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
Club Nacional
Albion FC
Club Nacional
Universitario
Club Nacional
Cerro
Club Nacional
Danubio
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
Central Espanol
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
Wanderers
Club Nacional
Penarol
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
Penarol
Club Nacional
Miramar
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
Club Nacional
Progreso
Central Espanol
Progreso
Wanderers
Progreso
Danubio
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Atletico Torque
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
Cerro
Progreso
Danubio
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
Juventud
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
Plaza Colonia
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
CA River Plate
Progreso
Boston River
Progreso
Club Nacional
Progreso
Penarol
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:0 | 9 | 9 |
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 7 | 9 |
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:4 | 2 | 8 |
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:6 | 0 | 7 |
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:6 | -2 | 7 |
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 5 |
D
W
D
|
|
| 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 5 |
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 4 |
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3:3 | 0 | 3 |
D
D
D
|
|
| 11 |
Club Nacional
Home
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 3 |
W
L
L
|
| 12 |
Progreso
Away
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1:4 | -3 | 3 |
W
L
L
L
|
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 3 |
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0:2 | -2 | 2 |
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:9 | -7 | 1 |
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 0 |
L
L
L
|