URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Gran Parque Central
Referee: J. Feres
Club Nacional
Match Timeline
Cerro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Matías Ocampo
Cerro
20'
M. Gomez
Club Nacional
28'
M. Gomez
Club Nacional
🔄
46'
N. Soria ↔ C. Barros
Cerro
🟨
53'
Brahian Alemán
Cerro
🔄
54'
J. Amaro ↔ S. Cristoforo
Cerro
61'
M. Gomez
Club Nacional
🔄
62'
D. Suarez ↔ M. Arguello
Cerro
🔄
62'
B. Aleman ↔ A. Cambon
Cerro
🟨
67'
Sebastián Coates
Club Nacional
🔄
71'
M. Silvera ↔ G. Carneiro
Club Nacional
🟨
76'
Alejo Macelli
Cerro
🔄
78'
J. De Los Santos ↔ T. Veron
Club Nacional
🔄
78'
B. Barcia ↔ R. Martinez
Club Nacional
🔄
80'
M. Ocampo ↔ S. Paiva
Cerro
🔄
87'
L. Rodriguez ↔ J. I. Garcia Lantean
Club Nacional
🔄
87'
M. Gomez ↔ P. Nunez
Club Nacional
87'
P. Nunez
Club Nacional

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Club Nacional Win 100%
Draw 0%
Cerro Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Nacional1.51
Cerro1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Nacional Club Nacional
WWDLW
28 GF / 30 GA
Cerro Cerro
WLDWL
8 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
0.57
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
12
BTTS Yes
6
12
Over 2.5
4
4.25
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Nacional Club Nacional 18 matches
Cerro Cerro 14 matches
Club Nacional Statistic Cerro
7 Wins 2
2 Draws 4
9 Losses 8
28 Goals For 8
30 Goals Against 20
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 0.57
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
12 BTTS Yes 6
15 Over 1.5 8
12 Over 2.5 4
7 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 6
4.25 Shots On Goal 0
9.75 Total Shots 0
5.25 Corners 0
39% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Club Nacional's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Cerro. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Club Nacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Club Nacional arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 19 points compared to Cerro in 16 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Nacional expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Cerro in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro having the stronger overall control.

Club Nacional Analysis

With 19 points from 14 games and a place of 9, Club Nacional still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 22:21, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through M. Gomez (7 goals), T. Veron (4 goals), Agustín Rogel (2 goals), with creative support from T. Veron (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cerro Analysis

With 10 points from 14 games and a place of 16, Cerro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 8:20, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Pandiani (4 goals), T. Correa (4 goals), Alejo Macelli (3 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Nacional won 11 times, Cerro won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:10 from Club Nacional's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: Club Nacional 3-4-1-2 / Cerro 5-3-2
H2H summary: Club Nacional wins 11, draws 3, Cerro wins 1

Lineups

Club Nacional
Formation
Cerro
L. Mejia
L. Mejia
E. Ancheta
E. Ancheta
S. Coates
S. Coates
T. Viera
T. Viera
C. Candido
C. Candido
A. dos Santos
A. dos Santos
L. Rodriguez
L. Rodriguez
B. Barcia
B. Barcia
M. Silvera
M. Silvera
J. De Los Santos
J. De Los Santos
M. Gomez
⚽ 3
M. Gomez
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
D. Suarez
D. Suarez
A. Macelli
A. Macelli
A. Lima
A. Lima
G. Rodriguez
G. Rodriguez
F. Bregante
F. Bregante
A. Miranda
A. Miranda
B. Aleman
B. Aleman
J. Amaro
J. Amaro
N. Soria
N. Soria
M. Ocampo
M. Ocampo
Club Nacional 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
L. Mejia
G
13
E. Ancheta
D
4
S. Coates
🟨 67'
D
32
T. Viera
D
21
C. Candido
D
10
A. dos Santos
M
23
L. Rodriguez
↓ 87'
M
30
B. Barcia
↓ 78'
M
11
M. Silvera
↓ 71'
F
19
J. De Los Santos
↓ 78'
M
9
M. Gomez
⚽ 20' ⚽ 28' ⚽ 61' ↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
25
I. Suarez
G
77
N. Rodriguez
D
15
P. Calione
D
56
J. I. Garcia Lantean
↑ 87'
M
14
N. Lodeiro
M
6
L. Boggio
M
27
T. Veron
↑ 78'
M
31
R. Martinez
↑ 78'
F
20
G. Carneiro
↑ 71'
F
18
P. Nunez
⚽ 87' ↑ 87'
F
Cerro 5-3-2
Starting XI
25
F. N. Correa Gonzalez
G
22
D. Suarez
↓ 62'
D
5
A. Macelli
🟨 76'
M
3
A. Lima
D
17
G. Rodriguez
6
F. Bregante
D
8
A. Miranda
M
10
B. Aleman
↓ 62' 🟨 53'
M
31
J. Amaro
↓ 54'
M
11
N. Soria
↓ 46'
F
77
M. Ocampo
↓ 80' 🟨 19'
M
Substitutes
12
Y. Irrazabal
G
23
M. Farias
D
4
M. Arguello
↑ 62'
D
41
S. Cristoforo
↑ 54'
M
19
E. Sosa
M
35
P. Nongoy
M
7
A. Severo
F
28
A. Cambon
↑ 62'
F
29
S. Paiva
↑ 80'
F
27
C. Barros
↑ 46'
M
Last matches: Club Nacional
17.07.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
1
2
L
11.07.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
0
0
D
06.06.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
0
3
L
27.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
2
3
L
30.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
2
4
L
25.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
3
1
W
14.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
3
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
08.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Central Espanol
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
3
2
W
24.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
Last matches: Cerro
12.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
H2H: Club Nacional vs Cerro
10.05.26
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
01.11.25
H2H
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
03.05.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
02.11.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
2
0
W
09.06.24
H2H
Cerro
Club Nacional
3
0
L
28.04.24
H2H
Cerro
Club Nacional
1
2
W
15.10.23
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
2
1
W
03.06.23
H2H
Cerro
Club Nacional
1
1
D
04.03.23
H2H
Cerro
Club Nacional
2
2
D
27.02.21
H2H
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
1
W
06.09.20
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
5
1
W
19.10.19
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
2
0
W
30.03.19
H2H
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
2
W
11.08.18
H2H
Cerro
Club Nacional
1
2
W
25.02.18
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
Last matches: Club Nacional
17.07.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
1
2
L
06.06.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
2
L
14.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
3
1
W
03.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Central Espanol
0
1
L
24.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
13.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Penarol
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
30.11.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Penarol
1
0
W
18.10.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Miramar
3
1
W
04.10.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
20.09.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
3
1
W
07.09.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
3
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Boston River
0
0
D
16.08.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Progreso
3
1
W
02.08.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
5
2
W
H2H at home: Club Nacional
10.05.26
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
03.05.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
02.11.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
2
0
W
15.10.23
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
2
1
W
06.09.20
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
5
1
W
19.10.19
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
2
0
W
25.02.18
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
Last matches: Cerro
12.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
18.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
2
L
26.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
1
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
1
5
L
31.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
0
1
L
17.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.08.25
Pri
Cerro
CA River Plate
0
0
D
16.10.22
Seg
Cerro
Rampla Juniors
1
0
W
01.10.22
Seg
Cerro
Miramar
2
0
W
17.09.22
Seg
Cerro
La Luz
1
0
W
03.09.22
Seg
Cerro
Rampla Juniors
2
2
D
H2H away: Cerro
10.05.26
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
L
03.05.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
L
02.11.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
2
0
L
15.10.23
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
2
1
L
06.09.20
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
5
1
L
19.10.19
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
2
0
L
25.02.18
H2H
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
L

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 12 4 5 36:22 14 40
L D W W D
2 21 12 4 5 32:19 13 40
W D W L W
3 20 10 8 2 26:16 10 38
D D D D W
4 21 10 5 6 33:25 8 35
W W L W W
5 21 9 6 6 30:22 8 33
L D W L L
6 21 10 2 9 32:28 4 32
L D W L W
7 20 9 5 6 27:25 2 32
D D W L W
8 21 9 5 7 26:25 1 32
W W D W D
9 20 6 7 7 23:22 1 25
L D W D L
10 20 7 4 9 22:21 1 25
D D W W L
11 20 5 9 6 16:17 -1 24
D D D L L
12 21 6 4 11 25:33 -8 22
W L D L L
13 21 6 4 11 19:29 -10 22
L D D L L
14 21 4 9 8 20:28 -8 21
L D D D L
15 21 4 4 13 17:32 -15 16
W L L W L
16
Cerro Away
20 4 4 12 12:32 -20 16
W L L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)