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03.10.2026 20:00
Estadio Rogelio Livieres
Referee: Juan Gabriel Benitez, Paraguay
Club Guarani
Match Timeline
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Daniel Meza
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🟨
5'
Leandro Allende
Club Guarani
⚽
11'
L. Martinez
Club Guarani
🟨
29'
Hugo González
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🟨
46'
Franco Aragón
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
46'
H. Gonzalez ↔ A. Benitez
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
46'
D. Meza Montiel ↔ I. Fretes
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🟨
50'
Álex Álvarez
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
⚽
57'
F. Aragon
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
62'
D. Fernandez ↔ G. Gomez
Club Guarani
🔄
62'
J. Garcia ↔ F. Fernandez
Club Guarani
🔄
62'
C. Arrua ↔ P. Coronel
Club Guarani
🔄
62'
A. Alvarez ↔ K. Fernandez
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🟨
66'
Luis Cáceres
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
68'
S. Salcedo ↔ C. Colman
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
74'
A. Mendez ↔ R. O. Rodriguez Echeverria
Club Guarani
🔄
79'
J. Llano ↔ J. Recalde
Club Guarani
🔄
79'
G. Gerzel ↔ J. Salcedo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Club Guarani vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Club Guarani Win 86.9%
Draw 6.5%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Win 6.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Guarani1.41
Club Sp. San Lorenzo0.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Guarani Club Guarani
W W D W D
6 GF / 2 GA
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
D L L L L
2 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
0.5
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.82
17
BTTS Yes
12
13
Over 2.5
13
3.81
Shots on Goal
1.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Guarani Club Guarani 36 matches
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo 34 matches
Club Guarani Statistic Club Sp. San Lorenzo
12 Wins 3
14 Draws 8
10 Losses 23
41 Goals For 17
34 Goals Against 62
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 0.5
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.82
17 BTTS Yes 12
22 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 6
15 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 19
3.81 Shots On Goal 1.68
11 Total Shots 7
4.28 Corners 2.91
46.1% Ball Possession 26%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Club Guarani's more proactive style and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Club Guarani arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 20 points compared to Club Sp. San Lorenzo in 12 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Club Sp. San Lorenzo. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Guarani expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Club Sp. San Lorenzo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Club Sp. San Lorenzo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Club Sp. San Lorenzo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Club Guarani Analysis

Club Guarani approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 20 points after 12 outings. The return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 13:9, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through F. Fernández (3 goals), D. Fernández (2 goals), J. García (2 goals), with creative support from F. Llano (2 assists), M. López (1 assists), I. Segovia (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Analysis

Club Sp. San Lorenzo sit 12 with 2 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 3:21, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through F. Aragón (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Club Guarani won 6 times, Club Sp. San Lorenzo won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:7 from Club Guarani's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Club Guarani 4-1-4-1 / Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Club Guarani wins 6, draws 3, Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 3 3 28:12 16 33
W W D D W
2 16 9 3 4 26:14 12 30
W W D W W
3 16 9 3 4 24:17 7 30
W L D W L
4 16 8 5 3 23:9 14 29
L W W D D
5 16 8 5 3 18:17 1 29
D L W W D
6 16 6 7 3 18:14 4 25
W L D D W
7 16 7 3 6 23:17 6 24
W D W L L
8 16 4 7 5 19:21 -2 19
L D L L D
9 16 5 1 10 17:30 -13 16
L W L L L
10 16 3 4 9 15:27 -12 13
L L D W D
11 16 3 3 10 16:28 -12 12
D W L L D
12 16 0 4 12 8:29 -21 4
L L D D D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)