MEXICO LIGA MX
20.09.2026 03:00
Estadio Banorte

Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 46.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
46.4%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Club America Win 46.4%
Draw 17.1%
Guadalajara Chivas Win 36.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club America1.05
Guadalajara Chivas1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club America Club America
WWDLW
22 GF / 11 GA
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
WLDWL
16 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.45
0.69
Average Goals Conceded
0.55
6
BTTS Yes
3
5
Over 2.5
3
6.08
Shots on Goal
5.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club America Club America 16 matches
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas 11 matches
Club America Statistic Guadalajara Chivas
8 Wins 6
5 Draws 4
3 Losses 1
22 Goals For 16
11 Goals Against 6
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
0.69 Avg Goals Conceded 0.55
6 BTTS Yes 3
10 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 1
8 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 3
6.08 Shots On Goal 5.88
17 Total Shots 13.88
6.62 Corners 7.63
57.6% Ball Possession 59.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Club America come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Guadalajara Chivas. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Club America arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 16 points compared to Guadalajara Chivas in 2 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club America expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Guadalajara Chivas in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Guadalajara Chivas having the stronger overall control.

Club America Analysis

Club America approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 16 points after 6 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 12:2 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Brian Rodríguez (2 goals), Raphael Veiga (1 goals), Henry Martín (1 goals), with creative support from Raphael Veiga (2 assists), Dagoberto Espinoza (2 assists), Henry Martín (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Guadalajara Chivas Analysis

Guadalajara Chivas come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 14 points after 7 matches. They have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, with a 12:6 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on R. Alvarado (3 goals), R. Marín (2 goals), R. Ledezma (1 goals), with creative support from R. Marín (2 assists), H. Camberos (1 assists), E. Álvarez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club America won 7 times, Guadalajara Chivas won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:8 from Club America's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.9%)
Predicted formations: Club America 4-2-3-1 / Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Club America wins 7, draws 4, Guadalajara Chivas wins 4

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 17:6 11 16
W W W D W
2 7 5 1 1 15:6 9 16
L W W W W
3 8 5 0 3 16:14 2 15
W W W L L
4 7 4 2 1 12:6 6 14
W D W W D
5 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
6 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
7 7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
W L W W D
8 8 4 1 3 12:14 -2 13
L D L W W
9 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
10 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
W L D D W
11 7 3 1 3 13:10 3 10
D L L W W
12 7 3 1 3 9:9 0 10
L D W W W
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
L D L D L
14 8 1 4 3 9:11 -2 7
D D D W L
15 8 1 4 3 7:12 -5 7
L D D L D
16 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L W D L D
17 7 0 1 6 4:12 -8 1
L D L L L
18 7 0 0 7 3:21 -18 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)