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18.10.2026 23:30
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: A. Menendez
Cienciano
Match Timeline
UTC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
C. Nunez ↔ C. Cabello
Cienciano
🔄
46'
R. Sandoval ↔ M. Succar
Cienciano
⚽
55'
C. Souza Espana · Assist: C. Garces
Cienciano
🟨
57'
Marcos Martinich
Cienciano
🟨
61'
Carlos Garcés
Cienciano
🟨
61'
Arquímedes Figuera
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
65'
Cristián Molins
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
69'
G. Barreto ↔ H. Caparo
Cienciano
🔄
69'
J. Cantt ↔ L. Arce
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
70'
Santiago Arias
Cienciano
VAR
73'
Cristian Souza
Cienciano
🔄
75'
M. de Jesus ↔ A. Arroyo
UTC Cajamarca
🟥
78'
Arquímedes Figuera
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
81'
S. D. Arias Fierro ↔ G. Aguirre
Cienciano
🔄
81'
C. Garces ↔ D. La Torre
Cienciano
🔄
87'
A. Munoz ↔ J. Nunez
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
88'
F. Cavagna ↔ D. Caro
UTC Cajamarca

Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cienciano Win 81.3%
Draw 12%
UTC Cajamarca Win 6.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cienciano1.71
UTC Cajamarca1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cienciano Cienciano
W D L W L
10 GF / 7 GA
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
L L L L L
7 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
19
BTTS Yes
19
17
Over 2.5
16
5.79
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cienciano Cienciano 29 matches
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 30 matches
Cienciano Statistic UTC Cajamarca
13 Wins 5
6 Draws 9
10 Losses 16
49 Goals For 34
41 Goals Against 52
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
19 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 23
17 Over 2.5 16
10 Over 3.5 12
5 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 8
5.79 Shots On Goal 4.43
16.14 Total Shots 12.71
5.64 Corners 4.32
51.8% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Cienciano's more proactive style and UTC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward UTC Cajamarca. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Cienciano arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 44 points compared to UTC Cajamarca in 18 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cienciano expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and UTC Cajamarca in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UTC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control. UTC Cajamarca arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Cienciano Analysis

Cienciano sit 6 with 44 points after 28 league matches. The record of 13 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 48:40 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through C. Garcés (6 goals), Alejandro Hohberg (5 goals), N. Bandiera (3 goals), with creative support from C. Garcés (3 assists), Alejandro Hohberg (2 assists), C. Souza (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

UTC Cajamarca Analysis

With 15 points from 27 games and a place of 18, UTC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 8 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 32:50 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Rasmussen (4 goals), M. Lliuya (3 goals), A. Arroyo (3 goals), with creative support from M. Lliuya (3 assists), M. Rasmussen (2 assists), D. Camacho (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Cienciano won 5 times, UTC Cajamarca won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:20 from Cienciano's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.31 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.3%)
Predicted formations: Cienciano 4-2-3-1 / UTC Cajamarca 4-4-2
H2H summary: Cienciano wins 5, draws 5, UTC Cajamarca wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 20 8 4 53:23 30 68
W L W W W
2 32 17 9 6 57:37 20 60
D W W W D
3 33 16 9 8 56:38 18 57
W L D W W
4 32 16 6 10 50:35 15 54
W L W L L
5 33 15 6 12 63:48 15 51
D W W L W
6 33 16 3 14 46:47 -1 51
L L W W L
7 33 15 5 13 54:46 8 50
L L W L W
8 33 15 5 13 48:49 -1 50
W W L W W
9 33 14 7 12 49:48 1 49
L W W L L
10 32 13 8 11 39:51 -12 47
D L L W D
11 32 12 9 11 37:35 2 45
D W W L L
12 33 11 8 14 48:59 -11 41
L L W L W
13 33 10 7 16 32:41 -9 37
W L L D L
14 32 8 12 12 44:47 -3 36
D D W L D
15 33 7 11 15 36:48 -12 32
D D W D L
16 33 8 7 18 46:65 -19 31
W L L L L
17 32 7 8 17 25:46 -21 29
D L L W L
18 32 5 8 19 38:58 -20 18
L W L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2