PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: R. B. Perez
Cienciano
Match Timeline
Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
34'
M. Succar · Assist: C. Cabello
Cienciano
🔄
46'
L. Alzugaray ↔ J. Guivin Tanta
Universitario
🔄
63'
J. Rivera ↔ G. Lapadula
Universitario
🔄
63'
H. Fertoli ↔ J. Concha
Universitario
🔄
66'
M. Succar ↔ A. Robles
Cienciano
🔄
77'
A. Hohberg ↔ H. Caparo
Cienciano
82'
C. Garces · Assist: C. Souza Espana
Cienciano
🔄
83'
J. Requena ↔ H. Calcaterra
Universitario
🔄
86'
C. Cabello ↔ R. Salazar
Cienciano
🔄
86'
C. Souza Espana ↔ G. Aguirre
Cienciano
🔄
87'
G. Barreto ↔ R. Sandoval
Cienciano

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.8%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cienciano Win 50.8%
Draw 12%
Universitario Win 37.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cienciano1.44
Universitario1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cienciano Cienciano
WWDLW
36 GF / 28 GA
Universitario Universitario
WLDWL
41 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.8
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
14
BTTS Yes
14
13
Over 2.5
14
5.63
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cienciano Cienciano 20 matches
Universitario Universitario 29 matches
Cienciano Statistic Universitario
10 Wins 14
4 Draws 8
6 Losses 7
36 Goals For 41
28 Goals Against 26
1.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
14 BTTS Yes 14
17 Over 1.5 19
13 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 12
4 Failed To Score 9
5.63 Shots On Goal 4.08
15.05 Total Shots 13.64
5.21 Corners 6.08
51.5% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Universitario. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Cienciano have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cienciano expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Universitario in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universitario having the stronger overall control.

Cienciano Analysis

Cienciano sit 4 with 33 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 35:27 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Alejandro Hohberg (5 goals), Carlos Garcés (2 goals), Matías Succar (2 goals), with creative support from Alejandro Hohberg (2 assists), Carlos Garcés (2 assists), Matías Succar (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Universitario Analysis

Universitario come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 35 points after 19 matches. They have recorded 10 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, with a 28:17 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Alex Valera (5 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), Caín Fara (2 goals), with creative support from Edison Flores (2 assists), Jairo Concha (2 assists), Andy Polo (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Cienciano won 3 times, Universitario won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:22 from Cienciano's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88%)
Predicted formations: Cienciano 4-4-2 / Universitario 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: Cienciano wins 3, draws 4, Universitario wins 7
Stats
Cienciano Cienciano
Universitario Universitario
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
13
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
7 Corner Kicks 2
8 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 1
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Goal 1
13 Shots off Goal 4
3 Blocked Shots 2
13 Shots insidebox 4
11 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
465 Total passes 313
397 Passes accurate 231
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cienciano
Formation
Universitario
Gonzalo Falcón
Gonzalo Falcón
Carlos Cabello
🎯
Carlos Cabello
Maximiliano Amondarain
Maximiliano Amondarain
Kevin Becerra
Kevin Becerra
Marcos Martinich
Marcos Martinich
Gerson Barreto
Gerson Barreto
Santiago Arias
Santiago Arias
Cristian Souza
🎯
Cristian Souza
Alejandro Hohberg
Alejandro Hohberg
Matías Succar
Matías Succar
Carlos Garcés
Carlos Garcés
Diego Romero
Diego Romero
Andy Polo
Andy Polo
Caín Fara
Caín Fara
Matías Di Benedetto
Matías Di Benedetto
César Inga
César Inga
Héctor Fértoli
Héctor Fértoli
Juan Manuel Requena
Juan Manuel Requena
Adrián Quiroz
Adrián Quiroz
Lisandro Alzugaray
Lisandro Alzugaray
Alex Valera
Alex Valera
José Rivera
José Rivera
Cienciano 4-2-3-1 (estimated from previous match)
Starting XI
1
Gonzalo Falcón
G
22
Carlos Cabello
🎯 34' ↓ 86'
D
4
Maximiliano Amondarain
D
3
Kevin Becerra
D
16
Marcos Martinich
D
88
Gerson Barreto
↓ 87'
M
5
Santiago Arias
M
7
Cristian Souza
🎯 82' ↓ 86'
M
10
Alejandro Hohberg
↓ 77'
M
19
Matías Succar
⚽ 34' ↓ 66'
M
21
Carlos Garcés
⚽ 82'
F
Substitutes
29
Ademar Robles
↑ 66'
M
39
Henry Caparó
↑ 77'
M
25
Renzo Salazar
↑ 86'
D
8
Gonzalo Aguirre
↑ 86'
M
17
Ray Sandoval
↑ 87'
F
31
Ítalo Espinoza
G
14
Sebastian Cavero
D
27
Alonso Yovera
D
18
Didier La Torre
F
Universitario 4-1-3-2 (estimated from previous match)
Starting XI
1
Diego Romero
G
24
Andy Polo
D
2
Caín Fara
D
5
Matías Di Benedetto
D
33
César Inga
D
8
Héctor Fértoli
↓ 63'
M
15
Juan Manuel Requena
↓ 83'
M
28
Adrián Quiroz
M
30
Lisandro Alzugaray
↓ 46'
M
20
Alex Valera
F
11
José Rivera
↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
21
Jordan Guivin
↑ 46'
M
17
Jairo Concha
↑ 63'
M
18
Gianluca Lapadula
↑ 63'
F
10
Horacio Calcaterra
↑ 83'
M
25
Miguel Vargas
G
4
Anderson Santamaría
D
3
Williams Riveros
D
6
Jesús Castillo
M
23
Jorge Murrugarra
M
Last matches: Cienciano
06.08.26
Pri
Cienciano
Alianza Atletico
0
1
L
25.07.26
Pri
Cienciano
Juan Pablo II College
0
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
3
L
31.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Sporting Cristal
3
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Sport Huancayo
2
2
D
16.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Atletico Grau
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
23.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
20.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
UCV Moquegua
2
1
W
03.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
ADT
3
2
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cienciano
FC Cajamarca
3
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Cienciano
Cusco
2
1
W
09.03.26
Pri
Cienciano
Sport Boys
3
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Deportivo Garcilaso
3
2
W
22.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Universitario
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Juan Pablo II College
6
1
W
31.01.26
Pri
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
Last matches: Universitario
08.08.26
Pri
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
25.07.26
Pri
Universitario
Cusco
2
1
W
18.07.26
Pri
Universitario
ADT
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Universitario
Millonarios
2
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
30.04.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
4
2
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Atletico
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Deportivo Garcilaso
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
15.04.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
0
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
H2H: Cienciano vs Universitario
02.08.26
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
2
0
W
14.02.26
H2H
Universitario
Cienciano
2
1
L
26.07.25
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
1
1
D
16.02.25
H2H
Universitario
Cienciano
3
2
L
27.10.24
H2H
Universitario
Cienciano
3
1
L
21.05.24
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
0
0
D
23.06.23
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
1
1
D
25.03.23
H2H
Universitario
Cienciano
3
0
L
10.03.23
H2H
Universitario
Cienciano
2
0
L
07.08.22
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
1
0
W
13.03.22
H2H
Universitario
Cienciano
1
1
D
09.08.21
H2H
Universitario
Cienciano
3
1
L
08.05.21
H2H
Universitario
Cienciano
3
2
L
03.11.20
H2H
Universitario
Cienciano
0
1
W
13.09.20
H2H
Universitario
Cienciano
0
0
D
Last matches: Cienciano
18.07.26
Pri
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
3
L
31.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Sporting Cristal
3
2
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
20.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
UCV Moquegua
2
1
W
03.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
ADT
3
2
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cienciano
FC Cajamarca
3
0
W
09.03.26
Pri
Cienciano
Sport Boys
3
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Juan Pablo II College
6
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Cienciano
Bolívar
1
1
D
H2H at home: Cienciano
02.08.26
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
2
0
W
26.07.25
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
1
1
D
21.05.24
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
0
0
D
23.06.23
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
1
1
D
07.08.22
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
1
0
W
Last matches: Universitario
18.07.26
Pri
Universitario
ADT
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
08.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
08.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Cusco
1
1
D
H2H away: Universitario
02.08.26
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
2
0
L
26.07.25
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
1
1
D
21.05.24
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
0
0
D
23.06.23
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
1
1
D
07.08.22
H2H
Cienciano
Universitario
1
0
L

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 6 1 38:13 25 48
D W D W D
2 21 12 5 4 31:27 4 41
D W L W D
3 21 11 3 7 37:28 9 36
L W L L W
4 21 10 6 5 29:20 9 36
D L W W W
5 21 10 5 6 36:26 10 35
L D W W W
6 21 10 5 6 26:20 6 35
W W W L W
7 21 10 3 8 31:31 0 33
L W L W W
8 21 7 6 8 26:26 0 27
W L W L L
9 21 7 6 8 19:21 -2 27
D W W L W
10 21 7 5 9 33:33 0 26
D W L W L
11 21 6 8 7 27:28 -1 26
W L D D L
12 21 6 5 10 27:34 -7 23
D W W L L
13 21 5 6 10 24:27 -3 21
D L L L L
14 21 5 6 10 30:36 -6 21
W L L D D
15 21 5 6 10 19:28 -9 21
L D D D L
16 21 5 6 10 26:44 -18 21
D L W D L
17 21 5 5 11 15:22 -7 20
D L L W W
18 21 4 8 9 24:34 -10 15
D L D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2