PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.1%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cienciano Win 71.1%
Draw 5.2%
FBC Melgar Win 23.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cienciano1.62
FBC Melgar1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cienciano Cienciano
WWDLW
35 GF / 23 GA
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WLDWL
36 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.94
Average Goals Scored
1.64
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
13
BTTS Yes
15
12
Over 2.5
12
5.94
Shots on Goal
4.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cienciano Cienciano 18 matches
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 22 matches
Cienciano Statistic FBC Melgar
10 Wins 10
4 Draws 6
4 Losses 6
35 Goals For 36
23 Goals Against 25
1.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.64
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
13 BTTS Yes 15
15 Over 1.5 19
12 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 3
5.94 Shots On Goal 4.53
15.59 Total Shots 13.76
5.41 Corners 4.88
52.6% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cienciano expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FBC Melgar in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FBC Melgar having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FBC Melgar.

Cienciano Analysis

Cienciano arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 33 points after 17 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 34:22 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by A. Hohberg (10 goals), C. Garces (10 goals), N. Bandiera (6 goals), with creative support from A. Hohberg (5 assists), C. Souza Espana (3 assists), C. Garces (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 28 points after 17 matches. The record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 29:20 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Cuesta (8 goals), J. Vidales (7 goals), M. Zegarra (3 goals), with creative support from N. Quagliata (8 assists), B. Cuesta (4 assists), M. Zegarra (4 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Cienciano won 1 times, FBC Melgar won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:21 from Cienciano's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Cienciano 4-4-2 / FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cienciano wins 1, draws 3, FBC Melgar wins 10
Last matches: Cienciano
31.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Sporting Cristal
3
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Sport Huancayo
2
2
D
16.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Atletico Grau
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
23.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
20.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
UCV Moquegua
2
1
W
03.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
ADT
3
2
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cienciano
FC Cajamarca
3
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Cienciano
Cusco
2
1
W
09.03.26
Pri
Cienciano
Sport Boys
3
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Deportivo Garcilaso
3
2
W
22.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Universitario
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Juan Pablo II College
6
1
W
31.01.26
Pri
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
25.01.26
Fri
Cienciano
Bolívar
1
1
D
Last matches: FBC Melgar
18.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
22.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
15.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Boys
3
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
ADT
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Macara
2
1
W
H2H: Cienciano vs FBC Melgar
06.03.26
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
31.01.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
L
03.10.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
L
11.05.25
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
26.08.24
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
30.03.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
L
10.09.23
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
0
1
L
15.04.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
1
0
L
17.09.22
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
2
2
D
30.04.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
1
0
L
16.03.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
1
0
L
09.03.22
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
12.09.21
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
0
1
L
23.05.21
H2H
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
3
0
L
04.10.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
0
0
D
Last matches: Cienciano
31.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Sporting Cristal
3
2
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cienciano
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
20.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
UCV Moquegua
2
1
W
03.04.26
Pri
Cienciano
ADT
3
2
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cienciano
FC Cajamarca
3
0
W
09.03.26
Pri
Cienciano
Sport Boys
3
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Cienciano
Juan Pablo II College
6
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Cienciano
Bolívar
1
1
D
H2H at home: Cienciano
06.03.26
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
11.05.25
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
26.08.24
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
10.09.23
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
0
1
L
17.09.22
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
2
2
D
09.03.22
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
12.09.21
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
0
1
L
Last matches: FBC Melgar
18.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
22.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
1
1
D
10.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
28.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
15.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Boys
3
1
W
20.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
ADT
1
1
D
10.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
08.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
20.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
3
L
H2H away: FBC Melgar
06.03.26
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
11.05.25
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
2
W
26.08.24
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
3
1
L
10.09.23
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
0
1
W
17.09.22
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
2
2
D
09.03.22
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
12.09.21
H2H
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
0
1
W

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
?
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
?
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
?
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
?
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
?
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
?
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
?
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
?
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
?
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
?
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
?
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
?
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
?
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
?
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
?
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
?
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
?
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
?
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)