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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.10.2026 18:30
Soldier Field
Referee: Brandon Stevis, USA
Chicago Fire
Match Timeline
New York City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
19'
H. Wolf · Assist: A. Ojeda
New York City FC
🟨
20'
Dje Tah D'Avilla
Chicago Fire
🟨
43'
Dje Tah D'Avilla
Chicago Fire
🟥
43'
Dje Tah D'Avilla
Chicago Fire
🔄
46'
J. Bamba ↔ M. Pineda
Chicago Fire
🔄
46'
N. Cavallo ↔ K. O'Toole
New York City FC
⚽
55'
A. Saletros · Assist: M. Haile-Selassie
Chicago Fire
🔄
60'
A. Perea ↔ Raul Gustavo
New York City FC
🔄
60'
A. Martinez ↔ Luighi
New York City FC
🟨
64'
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
Chicago Fire
🔄
71'
R. Lewandowski ↔ J. Gomez
Chicago Fire
🔄
71'
P. Zinckernagel ↔ P. Dithejane
Chicago Fire
🔄
72'
L. Barroso ↔ N. Allen
Chicago Fire
🔄
76'
J. Sands ↔ J. Shore
New York City FC
🔄
76'
A. Ojeda ↔ B. Traore
New York City FC
🔄
82'
H. Wolf ↔ M. Jones
New York City FC
⚽
88'
M. Haile-Selassie
Chicago Fire
🟨
90+4'
Mauricio Pineda
Chicago Fire
🔄
90+5'
M. Haile-Selassie ↔ A. Hanche-Olsen
Chicago Fire

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.5%
Odds 1.96
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.5%
1.96 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
1.50 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.58 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Chicago Fire Win 61.5%
Draw 4.8%
New York City FC Win 33.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chicago Fire1.59
New York City FC1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WWDLW
58 GF / 47 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
47 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.76
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
22
BTTS Yes
21
23
Over 2.5
16
5.26
Shots on Goal
4.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 33 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 32 matches
Chicago Fire Statistic New York City FC
15 Wins 9
9 Draws 11
9 Losses 12
58 Goals For 47
47 Goals Against 43
1.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
22 BTTS Yes 21
26 Over 1.5 28
23 Over 2.5 16
13 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 6
5.26 Shots On Goal 4.59
14.41 Total Shots 11.56
4.37 Corners 3.81
51.1% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chicago Fire expected to line up in 4-4-2 and New York City FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring New York City FC.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Chicago Fire arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 42 points after 26 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 46:38 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Haile-Selassie (8 goals), Hugo Cuypers (8 goals), P. Zinckernagel (6 goals), with creative support from P. Zinckernagel (7 assists), M. Haile-Selassie (5 assists), R. Lewandowski (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

New York City FC Analysis

So far, New York City FC have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 33 points from 27 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 41:36 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by N. Fernández Mercau (10 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), H. Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from A. Ojeda (7 assists), N. Fernández Mercau (4 assists), H. Wolf (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Chicago Fire won 1 times, New York City FC won 9 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:25 from Chicago Fire's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: Chicago Fire 4-4-2 / New York City FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Chicago Fire 4, New York City FC 7
H2H summary: Chicago Fire wins 1, draws 5, New York City FC wins 9

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 20 6 3 63:22 41 66
W W W W D
2 29 14 10 5 70:50 20 52
W W L D D
3 29 15 4 10 48:41 7 49
W L L W W
4 29 14 6 9 52:43 9 48
L W W W L
5 29 13 7 9 51:43 8 46
L W L W D
6 29 13 6 10 59:46 13 45
W W W W W
7 29 11 5 13 54:69 -15 38
D W L L W
8 29 10 6 13 39:54 -15 36
L W L W W
9 28 9 9 10 60:68 -8 36
L W L D D
10 29 8 9 12 42:40 2 33
L L D L W
11 29 7 12 10 44:55 -11 33
D W L L L
12 28 7 12 9 36:47 -11 33
W L D L D
13 29 9 5 15 44:47 -3 32
W L W W L
14 29 8 6 15 36:48 -12 30
W L D W D
15 29 6 6 17 35:59 -24 24
L L W L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)