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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
11.09.2026 18:00
Ticha Stadium
Referee: Kristiyan Kolev, Bulgaria
Cherno More Varna
Match Timeline
Lokomotiv Sofia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
C. Sidney · Assist: G. Lazarov
Cherno More Varna
🟨
15'
Angel Lyaskov
Lokomotiv Sofia
🟨
33'
Krasimir Stanoev
Lokomotiv Sofia
⚽
37'
I. Bounaas · Assist: M. Achi
Cherno More Varna
🟥
45+3'
Bozhidar Katsarov
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
46'
I. Yordanov ↔ R. Bidounga
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
46'
R. Daskalov ↔ Eiro
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
46'
G. Minchev ↔ D. Kostadinov
Lokomotiv Sofia
🟨
57'
Kristian Tomov
Cherno More Varna
🔄
58'
I. Bounaas ↔ I. Tasev
Cherno More Varna
🔄
58'
C. Sidney ↔ P. Andreev
Cherno More Varna
🔄
61'
Caue Caruzo ↔ A. Aralica
Lokomotiv Sofia
🟨
62'
Ventsislav Kerchev
Cherno More Varna
⚽
64'
A. Aralica · Assist: S. Delev
Lokomotiv Sofia
🟨
69'
Asen Donchev
Cherno More Varna
⚽
77'
D. Kostadinov · Assist: K. Stanoev
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
78'
K. Kostov ↔ N. Neychev
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
79'
↔ M. Barandas
Cherno More Varna
🔄
79'
M. Achi ↔ J. Padilla
Cherno More Varna
🔄
86'
V. Kerchev ↔ Joao Bandaro
Cherno More Varna
🟨
87'
Ante Aralica
Lokomotiv Sofia
🟨
90+4'
Georgi Lazarov
Cherno More Varna

Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
76.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cherno More Varna Win 44.8%
Draw 31.3%
Lokomotiv Sofia Win 23.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cherno More Varna1.48
Lokomotiv Sofia1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna
WWDLW
26 GF / 23 GA
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia
WLDWL
20 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
8
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
10
2.88
Shots on Goal
2.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 20 matches
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia 16 matches
Cherno More Varna Statistic Lokomotiv Sofia
8 Wins 3
4 Draws 6
8 Losses 7
26 Goals For 20
23 Goals Against 28
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
8 BTTS Yes 12
11 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 2
2.88 Shots On Goal 2.86
6 Total Shots 6
3.13 Corners 2.29
30.3% Ball Possession 21.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lokomotiv Sofia. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cherno More Varna Analysis

Cherno More Varna sit 11 with 4 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 8:16 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lokomotiv Sofia Analysis

Lokomotiv Sofia sit 13 with 3 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats with a 7:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Cherno More Varna won 5 times, Lokomotiv Sofia won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:6 from Cherno More Varna's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (76.1%)
Predicted formations: Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1 / Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cherno More Varna wins 5, draws 3, Lokomotiv Sofia wins 2

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 1 0 23:4 19 28
W D W W W
2 11 8 3 0 27:9 18 27
W D W W D
3 10 8 2 0 21:7 14 26
W W W D D
4 11 7 1 3 21:13 8 22
L W W L W
5 11 6 1 4 17:14 3 19
W W W W L
6 11 5 2 4 15:17 -2 17
L D L L W
7 11 3 4 4 11:15 -4 13
W L D D D
8 11 2 5 4 9:9 0 11
L L D W L
9 11 2 3 6 9:20 -11 9
L D D W L
10 11 2 2 7 13:21 -8 8
W D L L D
11 11 2 2 7 6:14 -8 8
D D L W L
12 11 1 5 5 12:19 -7 8
D W L D L
13 11 2 2 7 10:21 -11 8
L L L L D
14 11 1 3 7 11:22 -11 6
L D D L L
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