ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Stamford Bridge
Referee: A. Taylor
Chelsea
Match Timeline
Nottingham Forest
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
T. Awoniyi · Assist: D. Bakwa
Nottingham Forest
🟨
10'
Morato
Nottingham Forest
VAR
13'
Taiwo Awoniyi
Nottingham Forest
🟨
14'
Malo Gusto
Chelsea
15'
Igor Jesus
Nottingham Forest
🔄
45+9'
J. Derry ↔ L. Delap
Chelsea
🔄
45+5'
Z. Abbott ↔ N. Williams
Nottingham Forest
🔄
46'
T. Adarabioyo ↔ L. Colwill
Chelsea
🔄
46'
Cunha ↔ N. Milenkovic
Nottingham Forest
🔄
46'
Igor Jesus ↔ M. Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
🔄
46'
N. Dominguez ↔ E. Anderson
Nottingham Forest
52'
T. Awoniyi · Assist: M. Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
🔄
58'
R. Lavia ↔ Andrey Santos
Chelsea
🔄
66'
R. Sanchez ↔ F. Jorgensen
Chelsea
🔄
66'
↔ C. Wood
Nottingham Forest
VAR
75'
João Pedro
Chelsea
🟨
78'
Liam Delap
Chelsea
🟨
78'
Moisés Caicedo
Chelsea
🔄
80'
D. Bakwa ↔ O. Hutchinson
Nottingham Forest
90'
Joao Pedro · Assist: M. Cucurella
Chelsea

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Chelsea Win 48.2%
Draw 4.6%
Nottingham Forest Win 47.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chelsea1.62
Nottingham Forest1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chelsea Chelsea
WWDLW
93 GF / 66 GA
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
WLDWL
68 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.9
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
28
BTTS Yes
21
34
Over 2.5
27
5.12
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chelsea Chelsea 49 matches
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 50 matches
Chelsea Statistic Nottingham Forest
23 Wins 18
10 Draws 13
16 Losses 19
93 Goals For 68
66 Goals Against 60
1.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
28 BTTS Yes 21
41 Over 1.5 38
34 Over 2.5 27
20 Over 3.5 12
15 Clean Sheets 16
8 Failed To Score 17
5.12 Shots On Goal 4.8
14.2 Total Shots 14.02
6.08 Corners 5.54
58.6% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Chelsea's more proactive style and Nottingham Forest's more cautious structure. Nottingham Forest seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nottingham Forest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Chelsea have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chelsea expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nottingham Forest in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nottingham Forest having the stronger overall control.

Chelsea Analysis

Chelsea sit 9 with 48 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 13 wins, 9 draws, and 12 defeats with a 53:45 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Joao Pedro (14 goals), C. Palmer (9 goals), E. Fernandez (8 goals), with creative support from Joao Pedro (5 assists), Reece James (5 assists), P. Neto (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with L. Colwill, R. James, F. Jorgensen, M. Mudryk unavailable.

Nottingham Forest Analysis

Nottingham Forest sit 16 with 39 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 41:45 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Gibbs-White (13 goals), Igor Jesus (5 goals), C. Hudson-Odoi (3 goals), with creative support from Igor Jesus (4 assists), C. Hudson-Odoi (4 assists), O. Hutchinson (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with W. Boly, I. Sangare, Cunha unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Chelsea won 6 times, Nottingham Forest won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:11 from Chelsea's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.91 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Chelsea 4-2-3-1 / Nottingham Forest 4-4-2
Missing players: Chelsea 6, Nottingham Forest 8
H2H summary: Chelsea wins 6, draws 3, Nottingham Forest wins 2
Stats
Chelsea Chelsea
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
1
10 Corner Kicks 1
12 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2
67% Ball Possession 33%
21 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Goal 4
8 Shots off Goal 1
8 Blocked Shots 1
12 Shots insidebox 6
9 Shots outsidebox 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
659 Total passes 334
597 Passes accurate 267
2.15 expected_goals 2.05
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Chelsea
Formation
Nottingham Forest
R. Sanchez
R. Sanchez
M. Gusto
M. Gusto
T. Chalobah
T. Chalobah
T. Adarabioyo
T. Adarabioyo
M. Cucurella
🎯
M. Cucurella
R. Lavia
R. Lavia
M. Caicedo
M. Caicedo
C. Palmer
C. Palmer
E. Fernandez
E. Fernandez
J. Derry
J. Derry
Joao Pedro
Joao Pedro
M. Sels
M. Sels
Z. Abbott
Z. Abbott
Cunha
Cunha
Morato
Morato
L. Netz
L. Netz
D. Bakwa
🎯
D. Bakwa
R. Yates
R. Yates
N. Dominguez
N. Dominguez
J. McAtee
J. McAtee
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus
T. Awoniyi
⚽ 2
T. Awoniyi
Chelsea 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
R. Sanchez
↓ 66'
G
27
M. Gusto
🟨 14'
D
23
T. Chalobah
D
4
T. Adarabioyo
↓ 46'
D
3
M. Cucurella
🎯 90'
D
45
R. Lavia
↓ 58'
M
25
M. Caicedo
🟨 78'
M
10
C. Palmer
M
8
E. Fernandez
M
55
J. Derry
↓ 45+9'
M
20
Joao Pedro
⚽ 90'
F
Substitutes
12
F. Jorgensen
↑ 66'
G
24
R. James
D
29
W. Fofana
D
6
L. Colwill
↑ 46'
D
17
Andrey Santos
↑ 58'
M
9
L. Delap
↑ 45+9' 🟨 78'
F
14
D. Essugo
M
21
J. Hato
D
34
J. Acheampong
D
Nottingham Forest 4-4-2
Starting XI
26
M. Sels
G
44
Z. Abbott
↓ 45+5'
D
23
Cunha
↓ 46'
D
4
Morato
🟨 10'
D
25
L. Netz
D
29
D. Bakwa
🎯 2' ↓ 80'
M
22
R. Yates
M
16
N. Dominguez
↓ 46'
M
24
J. McAtee
M
19
Igor Jesus
⚽ 15' ↓ 46'
F
9
T. Awoniyi
⚽ 2' ⚽ 52'
F
Substitutes
27
S. Ortega
G
11
C. Wood
↑ 66'
F
31
N. Milenkovic
↑ 46'
D
10
M. Gibbs-White
🎯 52' ↑ 46'
M
3
N. Williams
↑ 45+5'
D
17
E. da Silva Moreira
F
20
L. Lucca
F
8
E. Anderson
↑ 46'
M
21
O. Hutchinson
↑ 80'
F
Last matches: Chelsea
24.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Sunderland
1
2
L
19.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Tottenham
2
1
W
16.05.26
FA
Chelsea
Manchester City
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Liverpool
1
1
D
26.04.26
FA
Chelsea
Leeds
1
0
W
21.04.26
Pre
Chelsea
Brighton
0
3
L
18.04.26
Pre
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pre
Chelsea
Manchester City
0
3
L
04.04.26
FA
Chelsea
Port Vale
7
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Everton
0
3
L
17.03.26
UEF
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Newcastle
0
1
L
11.03.26
UEF
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
2
5
L
07.03.26
FA
Chelsea
Wrexham
4
2
W
04.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Aston Villa
4
1
W
01.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Arsenal
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Burnley
1
1
D
13.02.26
FA
Chelsea
Hull City
4
0
W
10.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Leeds
2
2
D
07.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Wolves
3
1
W
Last matches: Nottingham Forest
24.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
2
3
L
10.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle
1
1
D
07.05.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
0
4
L
30.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
5
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
4
1
W
16.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
09.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
3
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
0
0
D
12.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
0
1
L
04.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
2
2
D
01.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
1
2
L
26.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
1
2
L
22.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
0
1
L
19.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
3
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Wolves
0
0
D
H2H: Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
04.05.26
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
1
3
L
18.10.25
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea
0
3
W
25.05.25
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea
0
1
W
06.10.24
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
11.05.24
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea
2
3
W
02.09.23
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
0
1
L
13.05.23
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
2
2
D
01.01.23
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea
1
1
D
05.01.20
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
2
0
W
05.01.19
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
2
0
W
20.09.17
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
5
1
W
Last matches: Chelsea
19.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Tottenham
2
1
W
16.05.26
FA
Chelsea
Manchester City
0
1
L
26.04.26
FA
Chelsea
Leeds
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pre
Chelsea
Manchester City
0
3
L
04.04.26
FA
Chelsea
Port Vale
7
0
W
17.03.26
UEF
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Newcastle
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Burnley
1
1
D
10.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Leeds
2
2
D
31.01.26
Pre
Chelsea
West Ham
3
2
W
21.01.26
UEF
Chelsea
Pafos
1
0
W
17.01.26
Pre
Chelsea
Brentford
2
0
W
30.12.25
Pre
Chelsea
Bournemouth
2
2
D
27.12.25
Pre
Chelsea
Aston Villa
1
2
L
13.12.25
Pre
Chelsea
Everton
2
0
W
30.11.25
Pre
Chelsea
Arsenal
1
1
D
25.11.25
UEF
Chelsea
Barcelona
3
0
W
08.11.25
Pre
Chelsea
Wolves
3
0
W
25.10.25
Pre
Chelsea
Sunderland
1
2
L
H2H at home: Chelsea
04.05.26
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
1
3
L
06.10.24
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
02.09.23
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
0
1
L
13.05.23
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
2
2
D
05.01.20
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
2
0
W
05.01.19
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
2
0
W
20.09.17
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
5
1
W
Last matches: Nottingham Forest
17.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
2
3
L
07.05.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
0
4
L
24.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
5
0
W
09.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
3
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
2
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
2
2
D
01.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
1
2
L
19.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
3
0
W
06.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Leeds
1
3
L
25.01.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Brentford
2
0
W
22.01.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
SC Braga
0
1
L
09.01.26
FA
Nottingham Forest
Wrexham
3
3
D
06.01.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
West Ham
2
1
W
03.01.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
3
L
22.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
0
1
L
11.12.25
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Utrecht
2
1
W
06.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Everton
0
3
L
03.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Wolves
1
0
W
22.11.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
3
0
W
H2H away: Nottingham Forest
04.05.26
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
1
3
W
06.10.24
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
02.09.23
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
0
1
W
13.05.23
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
2
2
D
05.01.20
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
2
0
L
05.01.19
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
2
0
L
20.09.17
H2H
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
5
1
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship

Missing Players

Chelsea 6 missing
-
L. Colwill
Questionable Lacking Match Fitness
OUT
-
R. James
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
F. Jorgensen
Questionable Groin Injury
OUT
-
M. Mudryk
Missing Fixture Suspended
OUT
-
J. Gittens
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Unknown Player
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
Nottingham Forest 8 missing
-
W. Boly
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
I. Sangare
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Cunha
Questionable Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
John Victor
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
N. Savona
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Murillo
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
C. Hudson-Odoi
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
D. Ndoye
Questionable Injury
OUT