ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Stamford Bridge
Referee: M. Oliver
Chelsea
Match Timeline
Manchester United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
16'
Estêvão ↔ A. Garnacho
Chelsea
🟨
25'
Matheus Cunha
Manchester United
🟨
39'
Jorrel Hato
Chelsea
43'
M. Cunha · Assist: B. Fernandes
Manchester United
🔄
80'
B. Sesko ↔ A. Diallo
Manchester United
🔄
81'
W. Fofana ↔ T. Chalobah
Chelsea
🔄
81'
M. Gusto ↔ J. Acheampong
Chelsea
🔄
81'
M. Cunha ↔ M. Mount
Manchester United
🔄
87'
B. Mbeumo ↔ J. Zirkzee
Manchester United
🔄
88'
E. Fernandez ↔ R. Lavia
Chelsea
🟨
90+4'
Kobbie Mainoo
Manchester United
🟨
90+1'
Mason Mount
Manchester United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
86.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Chelsea Win 31.6%
Draw 10.6%
Manchester United Win 57.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chelsea1.77
Manchester United1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chelsea Chelsea
WWDLW
92 GF / 62 GA
Manchester United Manchester United
WLDWL
58 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
28
BTTS Yes
25
33
Over 2.5
21
5.35
Shots on Goal
5.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chelsea Chelsea 46 matches
Manchester United Manchester United 33 matches
Chelsea Statistic Manchester United
22 Wins 15
10 Draws 10
14 Losses 8
92 Goals For 58
62 Goals Against 47
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
28 BTTS Yes 25
40 Over 1.5 29
33 Over 2.5 21
20 Over 3.5 12
14 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 3
5.35 Shots On Goal 5.91
14.37 Total Shots 16.09
6.09 Corners 4.82
58.9% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Chelsea have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Manchester United. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Chelsea Analysis

Chelsea approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 48 points from 32 matches. The overall return of 13 wins, 9 draws, and 10 defeats with a 53:41 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Joao Pedro (14 goals), C. Palmer (9 goals), E. Fernandez (8 goals), with creative support from Joao Pedro (5 assists), Reece James (5 assists), P. Neto (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with T. Chalobah, L. Colwill, R. James, M. Mudryk unavailable.

Manchester United Analysis

Manchester United come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 55 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses, while the 56:43 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Mbeumo (9 goals), B. Sesko (9 goals), Bruno Fernandes (8 goals), with creative support from Bruno Fernandes (17 assists), B. Mbeumo (3 assists), Patrick Dorgu (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with M. de Ligt, P. Dorgu, H. Maguire, L. Martinez unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Chelsea won 3 times, Manchester United won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Chelsea's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.4%)
Predicted formations: Chelsea 4-2-3-1 / Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Chelsea 6, Manchester United 6
H2H summary: Chelsea wins 3, draws 6, Manchester United wins 6
Stats
Chelsea Chelsea
Manchester United Manchester United
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
13
Blocked Shots
2
7 Corner Kicks 1
12 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 0
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 1
13 Blocked Shots 2
11 Shots insidebox 1
10 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
605 Total passes 431
541 Passes accurate 362
1.57 expected_goals 0.29
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Chelsea
Formation
Manchester United
R. Sanchez
R. Sanchez
M. Gusto
M. Gusto
W. Fofana
W. Fofana
J. Hato
J. Hato
M. Cucurella
M. Cucurella
M. Caicedo
M. Caicedo
E. Fernandez
E. Fernandez
Estêvão
Estêvão
C. Palmer
C. Palmer
P. Neto
P. Neto
L. Delap
L. Delap
S. Lammens
S. Lammens
D. Dalot
D. Dalot
N. Mazraoui
N. Mazraoui
A. Heaven
A. Heaven
L. Shaw
L. Shaw
Casemiro
Casemiro
K. Mainoo
K. Mainoo
B. Mbeumo
B. Mbeumo
B. Fernandes
🎯
B. Fernandes
M. Cunha
M. Cunha
B. Sesko
B. Sesko
Chelsea 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
R. Sanchez
G
27
M. Gusto
↓ 81'
D
29
W. Fofana
↓ 81'
D
21
J. Hato
🟨 39'
D
3
M. Cucurella
D
25
M. Caicedo
M
8
E. Fernandez
↓ 88'
M
41
Estêvão
↓ 16'
M
10
C. Palmer
M
7
P. Neto
M
9
L. Delap
F
Substitutes
28
T. Sharman-Lowe
G
23
T. Chalobah
↑ 81'
D
49
A. Garnacho
↑ 16'
F
17
Andrey Santos
M
38
M. Guiu
F
4
T. Adarabioyo
D
45
R. Lavia
↑ 88'
M
14
D. Essugo
M
34
J. Acheampong
↑ 81'
D
Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
31
S. Lammens
G
2
D. Dalot
D
3
N. Mazraoui
D
26
A. Heaven
D
23
L. Shaw
D
18
Casemiro
M
37
K. Mainoo
🟨 90+4'
M
19
B. Mbeumo
↓ 87'
M
8
B. Fernandes
🎯 43'
M
10
M. Cunha
⚽ 43' ↓ 81' 🟨 25'
M
30
B. Sesko
↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Bayindir
G
7
M. Mount
↑ 81' 🟨 90+1'
M
11
J. Zirkzee
↑ 87'
F
77
J. Thwaites
M
12
T. Malacia
D
25
M. Ugarte
M
16
A. Diallo
↑ 80'
F
39
T. Fletcher
M
61
S. Lacey
F
Last matches: Chelsea
24.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Sunderland
1
2
L
19.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Tottenham
2
1
W
16.05.26
FA
Chelsea
Manchester City
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Liverpool
1
1
D
04.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
1
3
L
26.04.26
FA
Chelsea
Leeds
1
0
W
21.04.26
Pre
Chelsea
Brighton
0
3
L
12.04.26
Pre
Chelsea
Manchester City
0
3
L
04.04.26
FA
Chelsea
Port Vale
7
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Everton
0
3
L
17.03.26
UEF
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Newcastle
0
1
L
11.03.26
UEF
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
2
5
L
07.03.26
FA
Chelsea
Wrexham
4
2
W
04.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Aston Villa
4
1
W
01.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Arsenal
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Burnley
1
1
D
13.02.26
FA
Chelsea
Hull City
4
0
W
10.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Leeds
2
2
D
07.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Wolves
3
1
W
Last matches: Manchester United
24.07.26
Fri
Manchester United
Rosenborg
5
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Manchester United
Wrexham
0
1
L
24.05.26
Pre
Manchester United
Brighton
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
3
2
W
09.05.26
Pre
Manchester United
Sunderland
0
0
D
03.05.26
Pre
Manchester United
Liverpool
3
2
W
27.04.26
Pre
Manchester United
Brentford
2
1
W
13.04.26
Pre
Manchester United
Leeds
1
2
L
20.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Bournemouth
2
2
D
15.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Aston Villa
3
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Newcastle
1
2
L
01.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
23.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
Everton
1
0
W
10.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
West Ham
1
1
D
07.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
Tottenham
2
0
W
01.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
Fulham
3
2
W
25.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Arsenal
3
2
W
17.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Manchester City
2
0
W
11.01.26
FA
Manchester United
Brighton
1
2
L
07.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Burnley
2
2
D
H2H: Chelsea vs Manchester United
18.04.26
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
1
L
20.09.25
H2H
Manchester United
Chelsea
2
1
L
16.05.25
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
0
W
03.11.24
H2H
Manchester United
Chelsea
1
1
D
04.04.24
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
4
3
W
06.12.23
H2H
Manchester United
Chelsea
2
1
L
25.05.23
H2H
Manchester United
Chelsea
4
1
L
22.10.22
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
1
D
28.04.22
H2H
Manchester United
Chelsea
1
1
D
28.11.21
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
1
D
28.02.21
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
0
D
24.10.20
H2H
Manchester United
Chelsea
0
0
D
19.07.20
H2H
Manchester United
Chelsea
1
3
W
17.02.20
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
2
L
30.10.19
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
2
L
Last matches: Chelsea
19.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Tottenham
2
1
W
16.05.26
FA
Chelsea
Manchester City
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pre
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
1
3
L
26.04.26
FA
Chelsea
Leeds
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Chelsea
Manchester City
0
3
L
04.04.26
FA
Chelsea
Port Vale
7
0
W
17.03.26
UEF
Chelsea
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pre
Chelsea
Newcastle
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Burnley
1
1
D
10.02.26
Pre
Chelsea
Leeds
2
2
D
31.01.26
Pre
Chelsea
West Ham
3
2
W
21.01.26
UEF
Chelsea
Pafos
1
0
W
17.01.26
Pre
Chelsea
Brentford
2
0
W
30.12.25
Pre
Chelsea
Bournemouth
2
2
D
27.12.25
Pre
Chelsea
Aston Villa
1
2
L
13.12.25
Pre
Chelsea
Everton
2
0
W
30.11.25
Pre
Chelsea
Arsenal
1
1
D
25.11.25
UEF
Chelsea
Barcelona
3
0
W
08.11.25
Pre
Chelsea
Wolves
3
0
W
25.10.25
Pre
Chelsea
Sunderland
1
2
L
H2H at home: Chelsea
18.04.26
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
1
L
16.05.25
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
0
W
04.04.24
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
4
3
W
22.10.22
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
1
D
28.11.21
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
1
D
28.02.21
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
0
D
17.02.20
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
2
L
30.10.19
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
2
L
Last matches: Manchester United
24.07.26
Fri
Manchester United
Rosenborg
5
0
W
24.05.26
Pre
Manchester United
Brighton
3
0
W
09.05.26
Pre
Manchester United
Sunderland
0
0
D
20.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Bournemouth
2
2
D
04.03.26
Pre
Manchester United
Newcastle
1
2
L
23.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
Everton
1
0
W
10.02.26
Pre
Manchester United
West Ham
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Arsenal
3
2
W
07.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Burnley
2
2
D
04.01.26
Pre
Manchester United
Leeds
1
1
D
21.12.25
Pre
Manchester United
Aston Villa
1
2
L
08.12.25
Pre
Manchester United
Wolves
4
1
W
30.11.25
Pre
Manchester United
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
08.11.25
Pre
Manchester United
Tottenham
2
2
D
01.11.25
Pre
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
2
2
D
19.10.25
Pre
Manchester United
Liverpool
2
1
W
27.09.25
Pre
Manchester United
Brentford
1
3
L
14.09.25
Pre
Manchester United
Manchester City
0
3
L
24.08.25
Pre
Manchester United
Fulham
1
1
D
H2H away: Manchester United
18.04.26
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
1
W
16.05.25
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
0
L
04.04.24
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
4
3
L
22.10.22
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
1
D
28.11.21
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
1
D
28.02.21
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
0
D
17.02.20
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
0
2
W
30.10.19
H2H
Chelsea
Manchester United
1
2
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship

Missing Players

Chelsea 6 missing
-
T. Chalobah
Questionable Ankle Injury
OUT
-
L. Colwill
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
R. James
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
F. Jorgensen
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
M. Mudryk
Missing Fixture Suspended
OUT
-
J. Gittens
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
Manchester United 6 missing
-
M. de Ligt
Missing Fixture Back Injury
OUT
-
P. Dorgu
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
H. Maguire
Missing Fixture Suspended
OUT
-
L. Martinez
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
L. Yoro
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
K. Mainoo
Questionable Calf Injury
OUT