ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
18.04.2026 19:00
Stamford Bridge
Referee: M. Oliver
Chelsea
Match Timeline
Manchester United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
16'
Estêvão ↔ A. Garnacho
Chelsea
🟨
25'
Matheus Cunha
Manchester United
🟨
39'
Jorrel Hato
Chelsea
43'
M. Cunha · Assist: B. Fernandes
Manchester United
🔄
80'
B. Sesko ↔ A. Diallo
Manchester United
🔄
81'
W. Fofana ↔ T. Chalobah
Chelsea
🔄
81'
M. Gusto ↔ J. Acheampong
Chelsea
🔄
81'
M. Cunha ↔ M. Mount
Manchester United
🔄
87'
B. Mbeumo ↔ J. Zirkzee
Manchester United
🔄
88'
E. Fernandez ↔ R. Lavia
Chelsea
🟨
90+4'
Kobbie Mainoo
Manchester United
🟨
90+1'
Mason Mount
Manchester United

Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
86.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Chelsea Win 31.6%
Draw 10.6%
Manchester United Win 57.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chelsea1.77
Manchester United1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chelsea Chelsea
WWDLW
92 GF / 62 GA
Manchester United Manchester United
WLDWL
58 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
28
BTTS Yes
25
33
Over 2.5
21
5.35
Shots on Goal
5.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chelsea Chelsea 46 matches
Manchester United Manchester United 33 matches
Chelsea Statistic Manchester United
22 Wins 15
10 Draws 10
14 Losses 8
92 Goals For 58
62 Goals Against 47
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
28 BTTS Yes 25
40 Over 1.5 29
33 Over 2.5 21
20 Over 3.5 12
14 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 3
5.35 Shots On Goal 5.91
14.37 Total Shots 16.09
6.09 Corners 4.82
58.9% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Chelsea have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Manchester United. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Chelsea Analysis

Chelsea approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 48 points from 32 matches. The overall return of 13 wins, 9 draws, and 10 defeats with a 53:41 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Joao Pedro (14 goals), C. Palmer (9 goals), E. Fernandez (8 goals), with creative support from Joao Pedro (5 assists), Reece James (5 assists), P. Neto (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with T. Chalobah, L. Colwill, R. James, M. Mudryk unavailable.

Manchester United Analysis

Manchester United come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 55 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses, while the 56:43 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Mbeumo (9 goals), B. Sesko (9 goals), Bruno Fernandes (8 goals), with creative support from Bruno Fernandes (17 assists), B. Mbeumo (3 assists), Patrick Dorgu (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with M. de Ligt, P. Dorgu, H. Maguire, L. Martinez unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Chelsea won 3 times, Manchester United won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Chelsea's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.4%)
Predicted formations: Chelsea 4-2-3-1 / Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Chelsea 6, Manchester United 6
H2H summary: Chelsea wins 3, draws 6, Manchester United wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship