🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
13.05.2026 23:15
Bank of America Stadium
Referee: Jon Freemon, USA
Charlotte
Match Timeline
New York City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
N. Mercau · Assist: H. Wolf
New York City FC
🟨
29'
Nicolás Fernández
New York City FC
🟨
33'
Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
🟨
36'
Djibril Diani
Charlotte
🟨
38'
Pep Biel
Charlotte
🟨
40'
Hannes Wolf
New York City FC
🔄
65'
A. Ojeda ↔ M. Jones
New York City FC
🟨
71'
Wilfried Zaha
Charlotte
🔄
74'
I. Toklomati ↔ A. Goodwin
Charlotte
🔄
74'
K. A. Calderon Vargas ↔ R. Aloko
Charlotte
🔄
81'
N. Mercau ↔ A. Perea
New York City FC
🔄
81'
K. Parks ↔ A. Farnos
New York City FC
🔄
82'
M. Moralez ↔ S. Reid
New York City FC
🟨
84'
Malachi Jones
New York City FC
🟨
87'
Archie Goodwin
Charlotte
🔄
88'
P. Biel ↔ T. Smalls
Charlotte
🟨
90+4'
Raul Gustavo
New York City FC

Charlotte vs New York City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 68.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
80.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
68.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Charlotte Win 58.6%
Draw 13.3%
New York City FC Win 28.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Charlotte1.57
New York City FC1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Charlotte Charlotte
WWDLW
26 GF / 24 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
28 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
11
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
9
4.75
Shots on Goal
5.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Charlotte Charlotte 16 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 17 matches
Charlotte Statistic New York City FC
7 Wins 5
3 Draws 5
6 Losses 7
26 Goals For 28
24 Goals Against 25
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
11 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 16
11 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 4
4.75 Shots On Goal 5.42
10.83 Total Shots 12.25
4.25 Corners 3.92
47.8% Ball Possession 57.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with New York City FC's more proactive style and Charlotte's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. New York City FC seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring New York City FC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Charlotte Analysis

With 15 points from 12 games and a place of 8, Charlotte still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 20:21, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through P. Biel (6 goals), Idan Toklomati Jorno (4 goals), A. Goodwin (3 goals), with creative support from P. Biel (3 assists), L. Abada (2 assists), Idan Toklomati Jorno (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with H. Kessler, H. Toffolo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

New York City FC Analysis

New York City FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 15 points from 12 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 22:18, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through N. Mercau (8 goals), H. Wolf (5 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), with creative support from M. Moralez (6 assists), A. Ojeda (3 assists), N. Mercau (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Martinez, A. Perea, D. Baiera unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Charlotte won 6 times, New York City FC won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:14 from Charlotte's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.23 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.7%)
Predicted formations: Charlotte 4-2-3-1 / New York City FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Charlotte 3, New York City FC 6
H2H summary: Charlotte wins 6, draws 2, New York City FC wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)