🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
09.05.2026 23:30
Bank of America Stadium
Referee: I. Elfath
Charlotte
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Gerardo Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati
⚽
36'
K. Denkey
FC Cincinnati
⚽
43'
Evander · Assist: P. Bucha
FC Cincinnati
⚽
51'
I. Toklomati · Assist: T. Ream
Charlotte
⚽
52'
P. Biel · Assist: D. Diani
Charlotte
🟨
54'
Ashley Westwood
Charlotte
🔄
56'
M. Miazga ↔ M. Robinson
FC Cincinnati
🟨
62'
Samuel Gidi
FC Cincinnati
🔄
73'
G. Valenzuela ↔ E. Echenique
FC Cincinnati
🔄
73'
S. Gidi ↔ O. Nwobodo
FC Cincinnati
🟨
77'
Evander
FC Cincinnati
🔄
77'
K. A. Calderon Vargas ↔ L. Abada
Charlotte
🔄
82'
I. Toklomati ↔ A. Goodwin
Charlotte
🔄
87'
K. Mboma ↔ T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🔄
87'
B. J. Ramirez Leon ↔ A. Lajhar
FC Cincinnati
🟨
90'
Obinna Nwobodo
FC Cincinnati

Charlotte vs FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Charlotte Win 60.3%
Draw 10.9%
FC Cincinnati Win 28.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Charlotte1.7
FC Cincinnati1.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Charlotte Charlotte
WWDLW
24 GF / 22 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
44 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
2.32
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.84
10
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
11
4.91
Shots on Goal
5.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Charlotte Charlotte 15 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 19 matches
Charlotte Statistic FC Cincinnati
7 Wins 8
2 Draws 5
6 Losses 6
24 Goals For 44
22 Goals Against 35
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 2.32
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.84
10 BTTS Yes 11
11 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 10
2 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 2
4.91 Shots On Goal 5.93
10.73 Total Shots 14.2
4 Corners 5
47.9% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Cincinnati. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Charlotte expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Cincinnati in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Charlotte have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Charlotte Analysis

With 14 points from 11 games and a place of 7, Charlotte still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 18:19, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through P. Biel (5 goals), A. Goodwin (3 goals), Idan Toklomati Jorno (3 goals), with creative support from P. Biel (3 assists), L. Abada (2 assists), Idan Toklomati Jorno (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

From their first 11 matches, FC Cincinnati have collected 15 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 22:25 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Denkey (6 goals), Evander (5 goals), T. Barlow (2 goals), with creative support from E. Echenique (3 assists), P. Bucha (2 assists), K. Denkey (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Charlotte won 4 times, FC Cincinnati won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:11 from Charlotte's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.2%)
Predicted formations: Charlotte 4-2-3-1 / FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
Missing players: Charlotte 3, FC Cincinnati 5
H2H summary: Charlotte wins 4, draws 3, FC Cincinnati wins 2

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 26 12 10 4 63:48 15 46
D D D D W
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)