🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
26.09.2026 23:30
Bank of America Stadium

Charlotte vs Chicago Fire Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.7%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Charlotte Win 54.7%
Draw 13.2%
Chicago Fire Win 32.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Charlotte1.65
Chicago Fire1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Charlotte Charlotte
WWDLW
53 GF / 40 GA
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WLDWL
54 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.74
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
20
BTTS Yes
21
20
Over 2.5
22
4.96
Shots on Goal
5.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Charlotte Charlotte 30 matches
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 31 matches
Charlotte Statistic Chicago Fire
15 Wins 13
7 Draws 9
8 Losses 9
53 Goals For 54
40 Goals Against 46
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.74
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
20 BTTS Yes 21
23 Over 1.5 25
20 Over 2.5 22
12 Over 3.5 12
6 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 4
4.96 Shots On Goal 5.08
11.31 Total Shots 13.92
4.46 Corners 4.4
46% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Chicago Fire. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Charlotte Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 40 points from 25 games, Charlotte bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 11 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 45:36, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by I. Toklomati Giorno (6 goals), Pep Biel (5 goals), L. Abada (4 goals), with creative support from Pep Biel (4 assists), Kerwin Calderón Vargas (4 assists), A. Saint-Maximin (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Chicago Fire come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 39 points from 24 matches. The record of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 45:35 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Hugo Cuypers (8 goals), M. Haile-Selassie (7 goals), P. Zinckernagel (5 goals), with creative support from P. Zinckernagel (7 assists), M. Haile-Selassie (4 assists), A. Gutman (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Charlotte won 5 times, Chicago Fire won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:18 from Charlotte's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.8%)
Predicted formations: Charlotte 4-3-3 / Chicago Fire 4-3-3
H2H summary: Charlotte wins 5, draws 0, Chicago Fire wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)