🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
23.07.2026 00:15
Bank of America Stadium
Referee: Sergiy Boyko, Ukraine
Charlotte
Match Timeline
Atlanta United FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
K. A. Calderon Vargas
Charlotte
VAR
19'
William Reilly
Atlanta United FC
🟨
22'
William Reilly
Atlanta United FC
45'
L. Abada · Assist: P. Biel
Charlotte
🟨
48'
Aleksey Miranchuk
Atlanta United FC
57'
E. Baez · Assist: T. Jacob
Atlanta United FC
🔄
63'
L. de la Torre ↔ D. Diani
Charlotte
🔄
63'
A. Goodwin ↔ I. Toklomati
Charlotte
🔄
63'
L. Abada ↔ R. Aloko
Charlotte
🔄
64'
W. Cleary ↔ N. Byrne
Charlotte
76'
M. Almiron
Atlanta United FC
🟨
79'
Nathan Byrne
Charlotte
🔄
82'
F. Picault ↔ L. Brennan
Atlanta United FC
🔄
85'
K. A. Calderon Vargas ↔ T. Smalls
Charlotte
🔄
89'
C. Sanchez ↔ I. Suarez
Atlanta United FC
🟨
90+10'
Tomás Jacob
Atlanta United FC
🔄
90+3'
J. Alonso ↔ S. Gregersen
Atlanta United FC

Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.2%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Charlotte Win 69.2%
Draw 6.1%
Atlanta United FC Win 24.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Charlotte1.52
Atlanta United FC1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Charlotte Charlotte
WWDLW
30 GF / 26 GA
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WLDWL
22 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
12
BTTS Yes
10
12
Over 2.5
9
4.73
Shots on Goal
4.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Charlotte Charlotte 19 matches
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 19 matches
Charlotte Statistic Atlanta United FC
9 Wins 5
3 Draws 4
7 Losses 10
30 Goals For 22
26 Goals Against 27
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
12 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 15
12 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 8
4.73 Shots On Goal 4.13
11 Total Shots 13.2
4.6 Corners 5
47.1% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Charlotte's more proactive style and Atlanta United FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Charlotte expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atlanta United FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atlanta United FC having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atlanta United FC. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Charlotte arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 21 points compared to Atlanta United FC in 14 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Charlotte Analysis

So far, Charlotte have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 21 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 24:23 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Biel (7 goals), Idan Toklomati Jorno (5 goals), A. Goodwin (3 goals), with creative support from P. Biel (3 assists), K. A. Calderon Vargas (3 assists), L. Abada (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 11 points from 14 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats with a 14:23 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Miranchuk (5 goals), A. Fortune (2 goals), Emmanuel Latte Lath (2 goals), with creative support from M. Almiron (3 assists), A. Miranchuk (2 assists), E. Baez (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Charlotte won 5 times, Atlanta United FC won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:15 from Charlotte's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.9%)
Predicted formations: Charlotte 4-2-3-1 / Atlanta United FC 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Charlotte 2, Atlanta United FC 6
H2H summary: Charlotte wins 5, draws 1, Atlanta United FC wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
8 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
9 24 8 6 10 41:39 2 30
W W W D D
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)