19.09.2026 16:15
Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.4%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Charleroi Win 79.4%
Draw 5.5%
Cercle Brugge Win 15.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Charleroi2.04
Cercle Brugge1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Charleroi Charleroi
WWDLW
22 GF / 19 GA
Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge
WLDWL
10 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
2.11
9
BTTS Yes
5
9
Over 2.5
6
5.8
Shots on Goal
3.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Charleroi Charleroi 11 matches
Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 9 matches
Charleroi Statistic Cercle Brugge
5 Wins 0
2 Draws 4
4 Losses 5
22 Goals For 10
19 Goals Against 19
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 2.11
9 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 7
9 Over 2.5 6
8 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 4
5.8 Shots On Goal 3.6
19.4 Total Shots 16.4
6.2 Corners 8.4
56.6% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Charleroi's more proactive style and Cercle Brugge's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cercle Brugge. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Charleroi arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 12 points compared to Cercle Brugge in 14 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Charleroi come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Charleroi expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cercle Brugge in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cercle Brugge having the stronger overall control.

Charleroi Analysis

Charleroi come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 12 points after 5 matches. With 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 11:5, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by K. Van Den Kerkhof (2 goals), F. Situmona Mbemba (2 goals), P. Pflücke (1 goals), with creative support from K. Van Den Kerkhof (2 assists), J. Romsaas (2 assists), P. Pflücke (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Cercle Brugge Analysis

Cercle Brugge approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 2 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 5:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on L. Mondele (1 goals), S. Ngoura (1 goals), C. Ravych (1 goals), with creative support from D. Vanzeir (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Charleroi won 9 times, Cercle Brugge won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:21 from Charleroi's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Charleroi 4-2-3-1 / Cercle Brugge 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Charleroi wins 9, draws 2, Cercle Brugge wins 4

Standings

Pro League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 5 0 0 10:2 8 15
W W W W W
2 5 4 1 0 14:3 11 13
W W W D W
3 5 4 0 1 9:2 7 12
W L W W W
4 5 4 0 1 11:5 6 12
L W W W W
5 5 3 2 0 10:3 7 11
W D W D W
6 5 3 2 0 10:6 4 11
W W W D D
7 6 3 1 2 4:5 -1 10
W D W L L
8 5 2 2 1 12:8 4 8
D W D W L
9 5 2 2 1 12:8 4 8
W L W D D
10 5 2 1 2 6:3 3 7
L W W L D
11 5 2 1 2 10:10 0 7
L L D W W
12 5 2 0 3 5:10 -5 6
W L L W L
13 5 1 1 3 9:14 -5 4
W D L L L
14 5 0 2 3 5:10 -5 2
L L L D D
15 6 0 2 4 5:14 -9 2
L L D L D
16 5 0 1 4 4:12 -8 1
L D L L L
17 5 0 0 5 2:12 -10 0
L L L L L
18 5 0 0 5 1:12 -11 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Challenger Pro League