ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
20.09.2026 18:00
Estadio de Chacarita Juniors

Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.4%
Odds 2.67
BTTS
No
Probability 71.7%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.38
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.4%
2.67
BTTS No
71.7%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.38
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.11
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50
Correct Score 1-0
-
6.00
Probability Distribution
Chacarita Juniors Win 50.4%
Draw 17.1%
Quilmes Win 32.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chacarita Juniors0.73
Quilmes1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chacarita Juniors Chacarita Juniors
WWDLW
19 GF / 31 GA
Quilmes Quilmes
WLDWL
28 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
0.66
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
8
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chacarita Juniors Chacarita Juniors 29 matches
Quilmes Quilmes 29 matches
Chacarita Juniors Statistic Quilmes
7 Wins 9
6 Draws 8
16 Losses 12
19 Goals For 28
31 Goals Against 24
0.66 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
8 BTTS Yes 7
15 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 12
16 Failed To Score 15
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Quilmes's more proactive style and Chacarita Juniors's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Quilmes having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Quilmes. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Chacarita Juniors Analysis

Chacarita Juniors sit 17 with 27 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 19:30, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Quilmes Analysis

With 32 points from 28 games and a place of 14, Quilmes still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats with a 27:24 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Chacarita Juniors won 1 times, Quilmes won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:25 from Chacarita Juniors's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.85 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83%)
H2H summary: Chacarita Juniors wins 1, draws 4, Quilmes wins 8

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 14 11 4 31:15 16 53
D D W L W
2 30 14 11 5 36:24 12 53
W D W W W
3 29 15 7 7 44:35 9 52
W W D D W
4 29 15 3 11 34:28 6 48
W W L L W
5 29 12 9 8 31:26 5 45
D W W L D
6 29 12 8 9 32:25 7 44
W L L W L
7 29 11 9 9 31:27 4 42
D L W W W
8 30 11 9 10 25:26 -1 42
W L L W D
9 29 11 7 11 36:30 6 40
D D L W W
10 29 11 7 11 29:28 1 40
W L W W D
11 30 9 12 9 32:30 2 39
L W L D W
12 29 9 8 12 28:24 4 35
W L L L W
13 30 9 8 13 26:36 -10 35
L D L W D
14 29 8 9 12 25:34 -9 33
L W D L W
15 29 8 8 13 21:28 -7 32
L W L L L
16 29 5 15 9 23:30 -7 30
D D L W D
17 29 7 6 16 19:31 -12 27
L L L L D
18 29 5 8 16 23:49 -26 23
L L D D D
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation