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MEXICO › LIGA MX
11.10.2026 23:10
Estadio Hidalgo
Referee: Maximiliano Quintero Hernandez, Mexico
CF Pachuca
Match Timeline
Necaxa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
M. Espindola
Necaxa
VAR
37'
Christian Rivera
CF Pachuca
⚽
41'
J. Carranza · Assist: M. Espindola
Necaxa
🟨
45+7'
Emilio Rodriguez
Necaxa
⚽
45'
Eduardo Bauermann · Assist: O. Idrissi
CF Pachuca
🔄
46'
S. Rodriguez ↔ A. Alcaraz
CF Pachuca
🔄
46'
I. Zavala ↔ N. Vallejo
CF Pachuca
🔄
52'
J. Carranza ↔ J. Valencia
Necaxa
🟨
60'
Matías Espíndola
Necaxa
🔄
62'
M. Espindola ↔ L. Faravelli
Necaxa
🔄
62'
O. Gonzalez ↔ K. Rosero
Necaxa
🔄
63'
O. Idrissi ↔ G. Alvarez
CF Pachuca
🔄
63'
S. Santos ↔ A. Bautista
CF Pachuca
🟨
67'
Luis Jimenez
Necaxa
🔄
74'
E. Rodriguez ↔ R. Martinez
Necaxa
🔄
74'
E. Martinez ↔ J. Ruiz
Necaxa
🟨
77'
Francisco Venegas
CF Pachuca
🟨
78'
Nicolás Vallejo
CF Pachuca
⚽
79'
J. Valencia
Necaxa
🔄
80'
F. Venegas ↔ M. Isais
CF Pachuca
⚽
84'
S. Rondon · Assist: R. Pizarro
CF Pachuca
🟨
85'
Juan Valencia
Necaxa
⚽
87'
S. Rondon · Assist: R. Pizarro
CF Pachuca
🟨
90+9'
Alan Bautista
CF Pachuca
🟨
90+3'
Eduardo Bauermann
CF Pachuca

CF Pachuca vs Necaxa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
CF Pachuca Win 56.7%
Draw 21.6%
Necaxa Win 21.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
CF Pachuca1.62
Necaxa1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
CF Pachuca CF Pachuca
L D W W D
8 GF / 4 GA
Necaxa Necaxa
L L L D L
5 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
6
BTTS Yes
11
6
Over 2.5
9
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CF Pachuca CF Pachuca 11 matches
Necaxa Necaxa 15 matches
CF Pachuca Statistic Necaxa
4 Wins 5
3 Draws 4
4 Losses 6
18 Goals For 21
12 Goals Against 24
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
6 BTTS Yes 11
9 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 3
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.8
16.1 Total Shots 14.1
5.1 Corners 5.4
46.5% Ball Possession 50.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features CF Pachuca's more proactive style and Necaxa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Necaxa arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Necaxa. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with CF Pachuca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Necaxa in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Necaxa having the stronger overall control.

CF Pachuca Analysis

So far, CF Pachuca have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 12 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 15:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on S. Rondón (9 goals), O. Idrissi (1 goals), E. Montiel (1 goals), with creative support from O. Idrissi (2 assists), C. Sánchez (2 assists), N. Vallejo (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Necaxa Analysis

Necaxa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 8 points from 10 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats with a 12:20 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Carranza (4 goals), Owen de Jesús González Ojeda (2 goals), Juan Valencia (1 goals), with creative support from J. Carranza (1 assists), Juan Valencia (1 assists), J. Ruiz (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, CF Pachuca won 9 times, Necaxa won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:17 from CF Pachuca's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.21 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (78.4%)
Predicted formations: CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1 / Necaxa 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: CF Pachuca wins 9, draws 3, Necaxa wins 2

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 8 3 1 32:16 16 27
W W D W D
2 13 6 5 2 20:12 8 23
W D D L D
3 13 7 2 4 29:22 7 23
W W D D L
4 13 6 4 3 28:18 10 22
D D L D L
6 13 6 3 4 21:23 -2 21
L W D W D
7 12 6 2 4 23:17 6 20
W W D L W
8 12 6 2 4 16:15 1 20
L L W W D
9 13 6 1 6 19:16 3 19
W W W W W
10 14 5 4 5 19:22 -3 19
W W D L W
11 12 4 5 3 17:16 1 17
D D D L D
12 13 4 4 5 19:22 -3 16
L W D L D
13 13 4 4 5 13:17 -4 16
L D D L D
14 13 3 5 5 14:18 -4 14
L D W W L
15 14 3 5 6 14:20 -6 14
L W L L W
16 13 3 4 6 20:18 2 13
L L D L D
17 14 2 4 8 16:27 -11 10
D L L D L
18 14 1 2 11 9:33 -24 5
D L L D L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)