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26.09.2026 23:30
Saputo Stadium
Referee: I. Elfath
CF Montreal
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
12'
B. Ceballos ↔ F. Herbers
CF Montreal
⚽
25'
D. Rios
CF Montreal
🟨
33'
Matthew Longstaff
CF Montreal
🟨
47'
Fabian Herbers
CF Montreal
🔄
58'
A. Jabbari ↔ D. Doudera
FC Cincinnati
⚽
65'
T. Barlow · Assist: G. Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati
🟨
71'
Roman Celentano
FC Cincinnati
⚽
72'
P. Owusu
CF Montreal
⚽
75'
P. Owusu · Assist: D. Rios
CF Montreal
🔄
77'
O. Nwobodo ↔ K. Smith
FC Cincinnati
🔄
77'
B. J. Ramirez Leon ↔ K. Fletcher
FC Cincinnati
🟨
86'
Teenage Hadebe
FC Cincinnati
🔄
86'
N. Hagglund ↔ A. Powell
FC Cincinnati
🔄
86'
S. Gidi ↔ T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
87'
P. Owusu ↔ F. Amaya
CF Montreal

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 69.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
69.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
CF Montreal Win 30.8%
Draw 32%
FC Cincinnati Win 37.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
CF Montreal1.64
FC Cincinnati2.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
CF Montreal CF Montreal
L L L L L
2 GF / 14 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
D D L L D
6 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
2.32
2.06
Average Goals Conceded
2.12
17
BTTS Yes
24
20
Over 2.5
24
4.81
Shots on Goal
6.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CF Montreal CF Montreal 31 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 34 matches
CF Montreal Statistic FC Cincinnati
7 Wins 13
6 Draws 11
18 Losses 10
41 Goals For 79
64 Goals Against 72
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 2.32
2.06 Avg Goals Conceded 2.12
17 BTTS Yes 24
26 Over 1.5 31
20 Over 2.5 24
12 Over 3.5 21
4 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 4
4.81 Shots On Goal 6.17
12.96 Total Shots 14.62
5.08 Corners 4.93
48.4% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with CF Montreal expected to line up in 4-3-3 and FC Cincinnati in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. CF Montreal have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC Cincinnati.

CF Montreal Analysis

CF Montreal sit 15 with 21 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 31:51, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through P. Owusu (5 goals), D. Ríos (3 goals), M. Longstaff (2 goals), with creative support from P. Owusu (5 assists), M. Longstaff (3 assists), V. Loturi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

From their first 24 matches, FC Cincinnati have collected 32 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 52:59 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by K. Denkey (11 goals), Evander (10 goals), P. Bucha (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (7 assists), P. Bucha (4 assists), E. Echenique (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, CF Montreal won 4 times, FC Cincinnati won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:35 from CF Montreal's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (69.2%)
Predicted formations: CF Montreal 4-3-3 / FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
Missing players: CF Montreal 13, FC Cincinnati 5
H2H summary: CF Montreal wins 4, draws 2, FC Cincinnati wins 9

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 23 8 3 71:25 46 77
W W D W D
2 34 16 12 6 80:59 21 60
D W D L W
3 34 18 4 12 55:47 8 58
L L W W W
4 34 16 7 11 64:54 10 55
L W D W L
5 34 15 9 10 66:51 15 54
D W W L D
6 34 14 8 12 66:52 14 50
W L D L D
7 34 14 5 15 59:52 7 47
W W W W W
8 34 13 7 14 63:78 -15 46
W L D D W
9 34 12 10 12 67:75 -8 46
L W D W W
10 34 12 6 16 48:62 -14 42
W L L W L
11 34 10 12 12 49:45 4 42
W D W D D
12 34 9 12 13 52:67 -15 39
L L W L W
13 34 9 6 19 43:60 -17 33
L W L L L
14 34 7 12 15 39:61 -22 33
L L L L L
15 34 6 8 20 37:69 -32 26
L D L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)