🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
16.05.2026 20:30
Saputo Stadium
Referee: Fotis Bazakos, USA
CF Montreal
Match Timeline
Chicago Fire
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Viktor Radojević
Chicago Fire
14'
P. Zinckernagel
Chicago Fire
🟨
36'
Samuel Piette
CF Montreal
🔄
46'
V. Loturi ↔ N. Streit
CF Montreal
🔄
46'
S. Piette ↔ B. Craig
CF Montreal
🟨
57'
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
Chicago Fire
🔄
61'
V. Radojevic ↔ A. Gutman
Chicago Fire
🟨
62'
Brandan Craig
CF Montreal
67'
H. Cuypers · Assist: P. Zinckernagel
Chicago Fire
🔄
68'
P. Zinckernagel ↔ C. Mueller
Chicago Fire
🔄
68'
M. Haile-Selassie ↔ P. Dithejane
Chicago Fire
🟨
71'
Prince Owusu
CF Montreal
🔄
73'
W. Carmona ↔ D. Rios
CF Montreal
🟨
82'
Brayan Vera
CF Montreal
🔄
85'
L. Petrasso ↔ G. Synchuk
CF Montreal
🟨
89'
Puso Dithejane
Chicago Fire

CF Montreal vs Chicago Fire Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
CF Montreal Win 53.2%
Draw 0%
Chicago Fire Win 46.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
CF Montreal1.5
Chicago Fire1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
CF Montreal CF Montreal
WWDLW
28 GF / 36 GA
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WLDWL
32 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.78
2.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
10
BTTS Yes
10
14
Over 2.5
12
4.67
Shots on Goal
5.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CF Montreal CF Montreal 17 matches
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 18 matches
CF Montreal Statistic Chicago Fire
6 Wins 8
1 Draws 5
10 Losses 5
28 Goals For 32
36 Goals Against 23
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
2.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
10 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 12
14 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 3
4.67 Shots On Goal 5.25
12.83 Total Shots 15.17
4.33 Corners 4.83
47% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Chicago Fire's more proactive style and CF Montreal's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Chicago Fire. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with CF Montreal expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Chicago Fire in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chicago Fire having the stronger overall control.

CF Montreal Analysis

From their first 11 matches, CF Montreal have collected 12 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, while the 16:23 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on P. Owusu (6 goals), M. Longstaff (3 goals), W. Carmona (3 goals), with creative support from P. Owusu (3 assists), M. Longstaff (1 assists), W. Carmona (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Placed 4 with 17 points from 11 outings, Chicago Fire continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, while the 20:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on H. Cuypers (11 goals), Philip Zinckernagel (4 goals), J. Bamba (2 goals), with creative support from J. Bamba (2 assists), Philip Zinckernagel (1 assists), A. Gutman (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, CF Montreal won 6 times, Chicago Fire won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:22 from CF Montreal's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: CF Montreal 4-3-3 / Chicago Fire 4-2-3-1
Missing players: CF Montreal 5, Chicago Fire 5
H2H summary: CF Montreal wins 6, draws 3, Chicago Fire wins 6

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)