ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Dino Manuzzi
Referee: A. Arena
Cesena
Match Timeline
Padova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
L. Di Maggio
Padova
5'
C. Shpendi · Assist: A. Cerri
Cesena
7'
A. Cerri · Assist: C. Shpendi
Cesena
13'
L. Di Maggio · Assist: P. Ghiglione
Padova
17'
G. Caprari · Assist: P. Fusi
Padova
45'
C. Shpendi · Assist: M. Olivieri
Cesena
🔄
46'
P. Fusi ↔ G. Favale
Padova
🟨
50'
Marco Perrotta
Padova
🟨
51'
Massimiliano Mangraviti
Cesena
🔄
62'
A. Cerri ↔ G. Vrioni
Cesena
🔄
62'
L. Di Maggio ↔ C. Buonaiuto
Padova
🔄
63'
P. Ghiglione ↔ A. Capelli
Padova
🔄
66'
S. Bastoni ↔ G. Castrovilli
Cesena
🟨
70'
Giovanni Giunti
Padova
🔄
74'
M. Perrotta ↔ A. Boi
Padova
🔄
79'
T. Corazza ↔ R. Ciervo
Cesena
🔄
81'
G. Caprari ↔ K. Varas
Padova
84'
A. Seghetti · Assist: A. Capelli
Padova
🟨
87'
Christian Pastina
Padova
🟨
90+2'
Marco Olivieri
Cesena
🟨
90+5'
Jonathan Silva
Padova

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 75.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 97.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
75.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
97.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cesena Win 77.9%
Draw 0%
Padova Win 22.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cesena1.17
Padova1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cesena Cesena
WWDLW
42 GF / 52 GA
Padova Padova
WLDWL
35 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
22
BTTS Yes
18
19
Over 2.5
14
3.84
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cesena Cesena 38 matches
Padova Padova 38 matches
Cesena Statistic Padova
12 Wins 11
11 Draws 10
15 Losses 17
42 Goals For 35
52 Goals Against 48
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
22 BTTS Yes 18
29 Over 1.5 23
19 Over 2.5 14
10 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 9
12 Failed To Score 12
3.84 Shots On Goal 3.5
12.79 Total Shots 10.61
4.71 Corners 3.95
49.8% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Padova. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cesena expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Padova in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Padova having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Cesena Analysis

From their first 37 matches, Cesena have collected 46 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 10 draws, and 15 losses, while the 42:52 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Shpendi (10 goals), R. Ciervo (5 goals), Gianluca Frabotta (4 goals), with creative support from T. Berti (7 assists), C. Shpendi (4 assists), R. Ciervo (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Padova Analysis

Padova sit 13 with 43 points after 37 league matches. The record of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 16 defeats, together with a 35:46 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Bortolussi (10 goals), K. Lasagna (6 goals), F. Sgarbi (4 goals), with creative support from Alessandro Capelli (5 assists), K. Varas (4 assists), C. Buonaiuto (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Cesena won 1 times, Padova won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:10 from Cesena's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Cesena 4-2-3-1 / Padova 3-5-2
H2H summary: Cesena wins 1, draws 3, Padova wins 3
Stats
Cesena Cesena
Padova Padova
Shots on Goal
11
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
12
Blocked Shots
4
11 Corner Kicks 3
11 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1
58% Ball Possession 42%
30 Total Shots 15
11 Shots on Goal 7
7 Shots off Goal 4
12 Blocked Shots 4
22 Shots insidebox 12
8 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 8
509 Total passes 373
434 Passes accurate 307
2.26 expected_goals 1.84
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cesena
Formation
Padova
A. Siano
A. Siano
A. Ciofi
A. Ciofi
G. Zaro
G. Zaro
M. Mangraviti
M. Mangraviti
T. Corazza
T. Corazza
D. Bisoli
D. Bisoli
S. Bastoni
S. Bastoni
C. Shpendi
⚽ 2 🎯
C. Shpendi
T. Berti
T. Berti
M. Olivieri
🎯
M. Olivieri
A. Cerri
🎯
A. Cerri
M. Fortin
M. Fortin
C. Faedo
C. Faedo
M. Perrotta
M. Perrotta
C. Pastina
C. Pastina
P. Ghiglione
🎯
P. Ghiglione
P. Fusi
🎯
P. Fusi
G. Giunti
G. Giunti
L. Di Maggio
⚽ 2
L. Di Maggio
J. Silva
J. Silva
G. Caprari
G. Caprari
A. Seghetti
A. Seghetti
Cesena 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Siano
G
15
A. Ciofi
D
19
G. Zaro
D
24
M. Mangraviti
🟨 51'
D
27
T. Corazza
↓ 79'
D
25
D. Bisoli
M
10
S. Bastoni
↓ 66'
M
9
C. Shpendi
⚽ 5' ⚽ 45' 🎯 7'
M
14
T. Berti
M
32
M. Olivieri
🎯 45' 🟨 90+2'
M
7
A. Cerri
⚽ 7' 🎯 5' ↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
40
L. Ferretti
6
T. Arrigoni
M
4
M. Castagnetti
M
8
G. Castrovilli
↑ 66'
M
22
G. Vrioni
↑ 62'
F
99
G. Frabotta
D
26
M. Piacentini
D
18
M. Guidi
77
F. Tosku
F
11
R. Ciervo
↑ 79'
F
70
M. Francesconi
M
23
V. Magni
D
Padova 3-5-2
Starting XI
14
M. Fortin
G
72
C. Faedo
D
5
M. Perrotta
↓ 74' 🟨 50'
D
58
C. Pastina
🟨 87'
D
18
P. Ghiglione
🎯 13' ↓ 63'
M
8
P. Fusi
🎯 17' ↓ 46'
M
86
G. Giunti
🟨 70'
M
23
L. Di Maggio
⚽ 2' ⚽ 13' ↓ 62'
M
41
J. Silva
🟨 90+5'
M
24
G. Caprari
⚽ 17' ↓ 81'
F
11
A. Seghetti
⚽ 84'
F
Substitutes
22
A. Sorrentino
G
1
L. Mouquet
6
L. Crisetig
M
77
F. Di Mariano
F
92
C. Buonaiuto
↑ 62'
F
4
F. Belli
D
20
M. Bortolussi
F
17
A. Capelli
🎯 84' ↑ 63'
M
7
K. Varas
↑ 81'
M
30
G. Favale
↑ 46'
D
21
J. Bacci
M
13
A. Boi
↑ 74'
D
Last matches: Cesena
08.08.26
Fri
Cesena
Forli
0
0
D
05.08.26
Fri
Cesena
Vis Pesaro
3
0
W
01.08.26
Fri
Cesena
Fossombrone
3
0
W
25.07.26
Fri
Cesena
Athletic Carpi
1
0
W
01.05.26
Ser
Cesena
Carrarese
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Sampdoria
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Palermo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Juve Stabia
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Sudtirol
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Catanzaro
3
1
W
17.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Mantova
0
3
L
14.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Frosinone
2
2
D
07.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Modena
0
0
D
03.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Monza
1
3
L
28.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Empoli
1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Spezia
2
3
L
14.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Venezia
0
4
L
10.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Virtus Entella
1
3
L
06.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Pescara
2
0
W
31.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Avellino
1
3
L
Last matches: Padova
07.08.26
Fri
Padova
Monza
3
3
D
01.08.26
Fri
Padova
Cittadella
2
0
W
25.07.26
Fri
Padova
Ospitaletto
1
3
L
22.07.26
Fri
Padova
Sassuolo
1
4
L
01.05.26
Ser
Padova
Pescara
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Padova
Virtus Entella
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Padova
Reggiana
1
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Padova
Empoli
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Padova
Frosinone
0
2
L
21.03.26
Ser
Padova
Palermo
0
1
L
17.03.26
Ser
Padova
Venezia
1
3
L
14.03.26
Ser
Padova
Catanzaro
1
3
L
07.03.26
Ser
Padova
Avellino
0
1
L
03.03.26
Ser
Padova
Spezia
2
2
D
28.02.26
Ser
Padova
Modena
2
1
W
21.02.26
Ser
Padova
Bari
1
1
D
14.02.26
Ser
Padova
Sampdoria
0
1
L
10.02.26
Ser
Padova
Carrarese
1
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Padova
Juve Stabia
3
3
D
01.02.26
Ser
Padova
Monza
1
2
L
H2H: Cesena vs Padova
08.05.26
H2H
Cesena
Padova
3
4
L
08.12.25
H2H
Padova
Cesena
1
1
D
04.08.24
H2H
Cesena
Padova
3
1
W
28.02.21
H2H
Padova
Cesena
0
0
D
02.11.20
H2H
Cesena
Padova
0
2
L
09.02.20
H2H
Cesena
Padova
1
1
D
25.09.19
H2H
Padova
Cesena
1
0
L
Last matches: Cesena
05.08.26
Fri
Cesena
Vis Pesaro
3
0
W
01.08.26
Fri
Cesena
Fossombrone
3
0
W
25.07.26
Fri
Cesena
Athletic Carpi
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Sampdoria
0
0
D
06.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Sudtirol
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Catanzaro
3
1
W
14.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Frosinone
2
2
D
03.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Monza
1
3
L
21.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Spezia
2
3
L
14.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Venezia
0
4
L
06.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Pescara
2
0
W
24.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Bari
1
2
L
10.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Empoli
0
1
L
20.12.25
Ser
Cesena
Juve Stabia
1
1
D
13.12.25
Ser
Cesena
Mantova
3
2
W
28.11.25
Ser
Cesena
Modena
1
0
W
09.11.25
Ser
Cesena
Avellino
3
0
W
28.10.25
Ser
Cesena
Carrarese
2
1
W
04.10.25
Ser
Cesena
Reggiana
1
2
L
27.09.25
Ser
Cesena
Palermo
1
1
D
H2H at home: Cesena
08.05.26
H2H
Cesena
Padova
3
4
L
04.08.24
H2H
Cesena
Padova
3
1
W
02.11.20
H2H
Cesena
Padova
0
2
L
09.02.20
H2H
Cesena
Padova
1
1
D
Last matches: Padova
07.08.26
Fri
Padova
Monza
3
3
D
01.08.26
Fri
Padova
Cittadella
2
0
W
22.07.26
Fri
Padova
Sassuolo
1
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
Padova
Virtus Entella
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Padova
Frosinone
0
2
L
17.03.26
Ser
Padova
Venezia
1
3
L
07.03.26
Ser
Padova
Avellino
0
1
L
28.02.26
Ser
Padova
Modena
2
1
W
14.02.26
Ser
Padova
Sampdoria
0
1
L
07.02.26
Ser
Padova
Juve Stabia
3
3
D
25.01.26
Ser
Padova
Sudtirol
0
3
L
27.12.25
Ser
Padova
Palermo
0
1
L
13.12.25
Ser
Padova
Reggiana
2
1
W
29.11.25
Ser
Padova
Pescara
1
0
W
08.11.25
Ser
Padova
Mantova
0
1
L
29.10.25
Ser
Padova
Spezia
1
1
D
19.10.25
Ser
Padova
Catanzaro
1
0
W
04.10.25
Ser
Padova
Bari
1
2
L
27.09.25
Ser
Padova
Monza
1
0
W
31.08.25
Ser
Padova
Carrarese
0
0
D
H2H away: Padova
08.05.26
H2H
Cesena
Padova
3
4
W
04.08.24
H2H
Cesena
Padova
3
1
L
02.11.20
H2H
Cesena
Padova
0
2
W
09.02.20
H2H
Cesena
Padova
1
1
D

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation