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ITALY › SERIE B
18.10.2026 15:15
Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Cesena vs Avellino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cesena Win 49.5%
Draw 8.3%
Avellino Win 42.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cesena1.42
Avellino1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cesena Cesena
WWDLW
14 GF / 11 GA
Avellino Avellino
WLDWL
23 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
2.09
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
5
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
8
3.14
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cesena Cesena 11 matches
Avellino Avellino 11 matches
Cesena Statistic Avellino
4 Wins 5
5 Draws 2
2 Losses 4
14 Goals For 23
11 Goals Against 18
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 2.09
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
5 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 8
1 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 1
3.14 Shots On Goal 3.86
11.43 Total Shots 9.86
4.14 Corners 2
45.6% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Avellino's more proactive style and Cesena's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Avellino. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cesena expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Avellino in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avellino having the stronger overall control.

Cesena Analysis

From their first 6 matches, Cesena have collected 7 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 7:8 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through C. Shpendi (6 goals), A. Fiori (1 goals), with creative support from D. Bisoli (2 assists), M. Guidi (1 assists), X. Druiventak (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Avellino Analysis

Avellino approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 10 points after 6 outings. The return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 11:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Russo (2 goals), M. Besaggio (2 goals), W. Cheddira (2 goals), with creative support from R. Russo (2 assists), B. Moruzzi (2 assists), M. Palumbo (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Cesena won 3 times, Avellino won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:6 from Cesena's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.7%)
Predicted formations: Cesena 4-3-3 / Avellino 3-5-2
H2H summary: Cesena wins 3, draws 2, Avellino wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 14:7 7 16
W W D W W
2 6 4 2 0 13:6 7 14
W D W D W
3 6 4 1 1 11:6 5 13
W W D L W
4 6 3 3 0 9:3 6 12
D W D W D
5 6 3 2 1 7:4 3 11
D W L W D
6 6 3 1 2 11:7 4 10
W L D W W
7 6 3 1 2 11:8 3 10
W D L W W
8 6 3 1 2 8:5 3 10
W W W L D
9 6 2 1 3 12:10 2 7
L W L W D
10 6 2 1 3 5:8 -3 7
L L W L D
11 6 1 4 1 7:8 -1 7
L D D D W
12 6 2 1 3 6:13 -7 7
D L W L L
13 6 2 0 4 6:10 -4 6
L L L W L
14 6 1 3 2 8:7 1 6
D D W D L
15 6 1 3 2 5:7 -2 6
D D D W L
16 6 1 2 3 7:13 -6 5
L L D D L
17 6 1 1 4 4:6 -2 4
W L L L D
18 6 1 1 4 6:13 -7 4
L W L L L
19 6 1 0 5 6:12 -6 3
L L W L L
20 6 1 3 2 5:8 -3 2
D D D L W
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation