04.10.2026 19:00
Monumental Luis Tróccoli
Referee: Mathias De Armas
Cerro
Match Timeline
Wanderers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
18'
Facundo Labandeira
Wanderers
🟨
21'
Facundo Labandeira
Wanderers
🟨
38'
darlin mencia
Wanderers
🟨
38'
Damián Suárez
Cerro
⚽
45+1'
Luciano Cosentino
Wanderers
🟨
57'
Joaquin Nicolas·Cabral
Wanderers
🔄
61'
Leonardo Pais ↔ Jorge Alejandro Severo Cordero
Cerro
🔄
66'
Joaquín Zeballos ↔ jonas luna
Wanderers
🔄
66'
darlin mencia ↔ Mario Garcia
Wanderers
🔄
69'
Juan Cruz Guasone ↔ bruno morales
Cerro
🟨
73'
Emiliano Rodriguez
Cerro
🔄
80'
Facundo Labandeira ↔ Gonzalo Freitas
Wanderers
🔄
80'
Luciano Cosentino ↔ Jonathan Urretaviscaya
Wanderers
🔄
87'
Gianni Rodriguez ↔ Francisco Bregante Torres
Cerro
🔄
87'
Emiliano Gaston Sosa Viera ↔ Agustin Miranda
Cerro
🟨
89'
jonas luna
Wanderers

Cerro vs Wanderers Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.6%
Odds 2.90
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.33
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.6%
2.90 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.33 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.47 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Cerro Win 50.6%
Draw 9.9%
Wanderers Win 39.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro0.99
Wanderers1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Cerro
WWDLW
23 GF / 43 GA
Wanderers Wanderers
WLDWL
39 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
13
BTTS Yes
17
12
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Cerro 30 matches
Wanderers Wanderers 31 matches
Cerro Statistic Wanderers
9 Wins 13
6 Draws 8
15 Losses 10
23 Goals For 39
43 Goals Against 41
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
13 BTTS Yes 17
18 Over 1.5 24
12 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 11
11 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Wanderers's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Wanderers. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Wanderers in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wanderers having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Cerro Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Cerro have collected 32 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 23:43 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Wanderers Analysis

Wanderers are currently 6 in the standings with 44 points from 29 matches. The record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 36:35 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Cerro won 2 times, Wanderers won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:7 from Cerro's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Cerro 4-3-3 / Wanderers 3-5-2
H2H summary: Cerro wins 2, draws 1, Wanderers wins 2

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 18 6 6 49:25 24 59
D W W W W
2 31 17 7 7 49:27 22 58
W W W L W
3 30 16 6 8 52:35 17 54
D L W W W
4 30 14 11 5 36:24 12 53
L D W L W
5 31 13 10 8 42:30 12 49
W W D L W
6 30 15 4 11 45:38 7 49
W W D D W
7 30 13 8 9 38:36 2 47
W D D L W
8 31 10 8 13 32:42 -10 38
L L L D D
9 31 10 7 14 41:42 -1 37
W L L L L
10 30 9 9 12 35:39 -4 36
D W D D W
11 31 8 11 12 28:36 -8 35
L W L W D
12 30 8 9 13 28:34 -6 33
L L D L D
13
Cerro Home
30 9 6 15 23:43 -20 33
D L W W D
14 30 8 6 16 29:42 -13 30
L L L L D
15 31 8 4 19 27:46 -19 28
L W W L W
16 30 4 14 12 24:39 -15 26
L D D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
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