Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
56.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | No |
51.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
56%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-3 |
-
|
- |
Cerro
Penarol
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Cerro
18 matches
Penarol
24 matches
| Cerro | Statistic | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Wins | 10 |
| 4 | Draws | 6 |
| 11 | Losses | 8 |
| 10 | Goals For | 31 |
| 30 | Goals Against | 26 |
| 0.56 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.29 |
| 1.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.08 |
| 7 | BTTS Yes | 14 |
| 11 | Over 1.5 | 19 |
| 6 | Over 2.5 | 9 |
| 4 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 3 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 0 | Shots On Goal | 4 |
| 0 | Total Shots | 13.33 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 0% | Ball Possession | 42.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Penarol's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Penarol carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 27 points while Cerro sit 16 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Penarol. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.
Cerro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 10 points from 15 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats with a 8:24 goal balance points toward poor form . Going forward they depend heavily on T. Correa (5 goals), A. Pandiani (4 goals), Alejo Macelli (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Penarol come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 27 points from 15 matches. The record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 23:16 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Arezo (7 goals), L. Angulo (4 goals), Leandro Umpierrez (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerro won 1 times, Penarol won 11 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:33 from Cerro's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.
Lineups
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Cerro
Central Espanol
Cerro
Boston River
Cerro
Club Nacional
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
Central Espanol
Cerro
Atletico Torque
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Wanderers
Cerro
Juventud
Cerro
Penarol
Cerro
Progreso
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
Boston River
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
Albion FC
Cerro
Danubio
Cerro
Boston River
Cerro
Club Nacional
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Juventud
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Progreso
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Albion FC
Penarol
Danubio
Cerro
Central Espanol
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
Atletico Torque
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Juventud
Cerro
Progreso
Cerro
Boston River
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
Danubio
Cerro
Boston River
Cerro
Club Nacional
Cerro
Penarol
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Miramar
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Progreso
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Albion FC
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Atletico Torque
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Miramar
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Boston River
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 35:20 | 15 | 39 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 25:15 | 10 | 37 |
D
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 3 |
Penarol
Away
|
19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 28:18 | 10 | 36 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
| 4 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:20 | 9 | 32 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 31:26 | 5 | 31 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 27:25 | 2 | 31 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29:24 | 5 | 29 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22:24 | -2 | 26 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 22:20 | 2 | 25 |
D
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 10 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21:20 | 1 | 24 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 15:16 | -1 | 23 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19:26 | -7 | 21 |
D
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19:26 | -7 | 19 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 18 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 15 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16:30 | -14 | 13 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 |
Cerro
Home
|
19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 10:31 | -21 | 13 |
L
L
W
L
L
|