URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
68.9%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cerro Win 31.1%
Draw 18.5%
Albion FC Win 50.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro0.83
Albion FC1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Cerro
WWDLW
15 GF / 34 GA
Albion FC Albion FC
WLDWL
32 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.65
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
9
BTTS Yes
13
8
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Cerro 23 matches
Albion FC Albion FC 23 matches
Cerro Statistic Albion FC
6 Wins 9
4 Draws 7
13 Losses 7
15 Goals For 32
34 Goals Against 25
0.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
9 BTTS Yes 13
13 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Albion FC's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cerro have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Albion FC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 34 points while Cerro sit 15 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Albion FC having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Albion FC.

Cerro Analysis

With 19 points from 22 games and a place of 15, Cerro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 14:34 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Albion FC Analysis

So far, Albion FC have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 34 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 32:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Cerro won 2 times, Albion FC won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Cerro's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.6%)
Predicted formations: Cerro 4-3-3 / Albion FC -
H2H summary: Cerro wins 2, draws 0, Albion FC wins 1
Last matches: Cerro
09.08.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
1
0
W
03.08.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
26.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
12.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
Last matches: Albion FC
08.08.26
Pri
Albion FC
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
01.08.26
Pri
Albion FC
Danubio
2
2
D
17.07.26
Pri
Albion FC
Juventud
0
1
L
10.07.26
Pri
Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
07.06.26
Pri
Albion FC
Progreso
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
23.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Club Nacional
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Wanderers
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Danubio
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Club Nacional
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Central Espanol
6
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Cerro Largo
2
2
D
31.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
25.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Wanderers
2
1
W
22.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Juventud
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Penarol
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Progreso
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Albion FC
Racing Montevideo
1
3
L
H2H: Cerro vs Albion FC
16.02.26
H2H
Albion FC
Cerro
3
0
L
17.09.21
H2H
Cerro
Albion FC
1
0
W
01.06.21
H2H
Albion FC
Cerro
1
2
W
Last matches: Cerro
26.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
01.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
25.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
2
0
W
11.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Miramar
1
0
W
07.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
24.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
10.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
22.10.22
Seg
Cerro
Rampla Juniors
0
0
D
H2H at home: Cerro
17.09.21
H2H
Cerro
Albion FC
1
0
W
Last matches: Albion FC
08.08.26
Pri
Albion FC
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
10.07.26
Pri
Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
07.06.26
Pri
Albion FC
Progreso
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Club Nacional
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Danubio
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Juventud
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Progreso
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Albion FC
Boston River
0
0
D
19.10.25
Seg
Albion FC
Tacuarembo
0
2
L
04.10.25
Seg
Albion FC
La Luz
0
1
L
21.09.25
Seg
Albion FC
Colón
1
2
L
06.09.25
Seg
Albion FC
Oriental
0
0
D
19.08.25
Seg
Albion FC
Fenix
3
0
W
10.08.25
Seg
Albion FC
Atenas
1
0
W
03.08.25
Seg
Albion FC
Central Espanol
1
1
D
19.07.25
Seg
Albion FC
Rentistas
2
2
D
05.07.25
Seg
Albion FC
Cerrito
0
1
L
H2H away: Albion FC
17.09.21
H2H
Cerro
Albion FC
1
0
L

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 13 4 5 35:19 16 43
W W D W L
2 22 12 5 5 36:22 14 41
D L D W W
3 22 11 8 3 27:17 10 41
W L D D D
4 23 11 5 7 29:25 4 38
W W W W D
5 23 10 6 7 28:26 2 36
W D L D D
6 22 10 5 7 33:27 6 35
L W W L W
7 22 11 2 9 34:29 5 35
W L D W L
8 23 9 7 7 32:25 7 34
L D L D W
9 23 8 8 7 26:23 3 32
W D W L D
10 23 8 5 10 24:25 -1 29
D L W D D
11 23 6 9 8 19:21 -2 27
L W L D D
12 23 6 6 11 26:34 -8 24
D D W L D
13 23 4 10 9 22:31 -9 22
L D L D D
14 22 6 4 12 19:30 -11 22
L L D D L
15
Cerro Home
23 6 4 13 15:34 -19 22
W L W W L
16 23 4 4 15 18:35 -17 16
L L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
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