Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
83.1%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
37.2%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.6%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
74.1%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Cerro Largo
14 matches
Penarol
18 matches
| Cerro Largo | Statistic | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 7 |
| 2 | Draws | 5 |
| 7 | Losses | 6 |
| 14 | Goals For | 23 |
| 16 | Goals Against | 20 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.28 |
| 1.14 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.11 |
| 5 | BTTS Yes | 11 |
| 8 | Over 1.5 | 15 |
| 5 | Over 2.5 | 7 |
| 3 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 3 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 3 |
| 0 | Shots On Goal | 4.25 |
| 0 | Total Shots | 10.5 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 0% | Ball Possession | 40% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Penarol's more proactive style and Cerro Largo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Penarol. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro Largo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Penarol in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Penarol having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Penarol carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 24 points while Cerro Largo sit 12 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.
Cerro Largo are currently 12 in the standings with 17 points from 14 matches. The record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 14:16 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Pandiani (4 goals), T. Correa (4 goals), D. Daguerre (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.
Placed 4 with 24 points from 14 outings, Penarol continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 20:14 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Arezo (6 goals), L. Angulo (4 goals), Leandro Umpierrez (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Largo won 2 times, Penarol won 6 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:22 from Cerro Largo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.
Lineups
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Boston River
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Progreso
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Boston River
Cerro Largo
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
Cerro Largo
Danubio
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
Juventud
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Juventud
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Progreso
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Boston River
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Danubio
Cerro Largo
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Boston River
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
Danubio
Cerro Largo
Rentistas
Cerro Largo
Tacuarembo
Cerro Largo
Juventud
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Progreso
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Albion FC
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Atletico Torque
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Miramar
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 36:22 | 14 | 40 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 2 |
Penarol
Away
|
21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 32:19 | 13 | 40 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
| 3 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 26:16 | 10 | 38 |
D
D
D
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33:25 | 8 | 35 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30:22 | 8 | 33 |
L
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 6 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32:28 | 4 | 32 |
L
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 27:25 | 2 | 32 |
D
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 26:25 | 1 | 32 |
W
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 23:22 | 1 | 25 |
L
D
W
D
L
|
|
| 10 |
Cerro Largo
Home
|
20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 22:21 | 1 | 25 |
D
D
W
W
L
|
| 11 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 16:17 | -1 | 24 |
D
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 25:33 | -8 | 22 |
W
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 13 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 19:29 | -10 | 22 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 20:28 | -8 | 21 |
L
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 15 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17:32 | -15 | 16 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 16 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 12:32 | -20 | 16 |
W
L
L
W
L
|