Login Register
26.09.2026 18:00
Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Referee: M. De Armas
Cerro Largo
Match Timeline
Club Nacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Nicolás Rodríguez
Club Nacional
⚽
31'
T. Correa
Club Nacional
🟨
43'
Maximiliano Silvera
Club Nacional
🔄
54'
M. Garcia ↔ D. Daguerre
Cerro Largo
🔄
54'
A. Martinez ↔ S. Silva
Club Nacional
🔄
54'
M. Silvera ↔ M. Gomez
Club Nacional
⚽
57'
M. Gomez
Club Nacional
🔄
63'
A. Pandiani ↔ A. de Luca
Cerro Largo
🔄
72'
N. Rodriguez ↔ C. Candido
Club Nacional
🟨
79'
Alfonso de Luca
Cerro Largo
🔄
80'
A. Piegas ↔ N. Bertocchi
Cerro Largo
🔄
80'
A. Segovia ↔ E. de Leon
Cerro Largo
🔄
83'
L. Rodriguez ↔ B. Zuculini
Club Nacional
🔄
83'
T. Correa ↔ R. Martinez
Club Nacional
🟨
90+1'
Nicolas Bertochi
Cerro Largo

Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 66.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
66.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cerro Largo Win 33.6%
Draw 20.2%
Club Nacional Win 46.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro Largo1.12
Club Nacional1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WWDLW
28 GF / 32 GA
Club Nacional Club Nacional
WLDWL
50 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
12
BTTS Yes
20
9
Over 2.5
21
0
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 29 matches
Club Nacional Club Nacional 35 matches
Cerro Largo Statistic Club Nacional
8 Wins 16
9 Draws 6
12 Losses 13
28 Goals For 50
32 Goals Against 47
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
12 BTTS Yes 20
19 Over 1.5 26
9 Over 2.5 21
4 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 10
11 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 3.43
0 Total Shots 8.43
0 Corners 4.29
0% Ball Possession 33.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Club Nacional's more proactive style and Cerro Largo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Club Nacional. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro Largo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Club Nacional in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Club Nacional having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Cerro Largo Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Cerro Largo have collected 33 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 12 losses, while the 28:32 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Club Nacional Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 46 points from 29 games, Club Nacional bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 14 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, with a 43:38 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Largo won 0 times, Club Nacional won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:11 from Cerro Largo's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.8%)
Predicted formations: Cerro Largo 4-3-3 / Club Nacional 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Cerro Largo wins 0, draws 1, Club Nacional wins 4

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 19 7 6 51:26 25 63
D W D W W
2 32 17 8 7 50:28 22 59
D W W W L
3 32 17 6 9 53:37 16 57
W L D L W
4 32 17 4 11 48:38 10 55
W W W W D
5 32 14 11 7 36:27 9 53
L L L D W
6 32 13 11 8 43:31 12 50
D W W D L
7 32 14 8 10 41:39 2 50
L W W D D
8 32 11 7 14 42:42 0 40
W W L L L
9 32 10 10 12 37:39 -2 40
W D D W D
10 32 10 8 14 32:43 -11 38
L L L L D
11 32 10 6 16 26:47 -21 36
W L D L W
12 32 8 11 13 30:39 -9 35
L L W L W
13 32 9 7 16 32:43 -11 34
W D L L L
14 32 8 9 15 29:37 -8 33
L L L L D
15 32 5 14 13 26:41 -15 29
L W L D D
16 32 8 5 19 28:47 -19 29
D L W W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)