12.09.2026 23:00
Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla

Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.6%
Odds 2.26
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 2.52
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.6%
2.26
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
2.52
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.47
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Cerro Largo Win 57.6%
Draw 7.3%
Central Espanol Win 35.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro Largo1.11
Central Espanol1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WWDLW
28 GF / 30 GA
Central Espanol Central Espanol
WLDWL
30 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
12
BTTS Yes
13
9
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 27 matches
Central Espanol Central Espanol 27 matches
Cerro Largo Statistic Central Espanol
8 Wins 10
8 Draws 7
11 Losses 10
28 Goals For 30
30 Goals Against 33
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
12 BTTS Yes 13
18 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Central Espanol arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Central Espanol. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Central Espanol having the stronger overall control.

Cerro Largo Analysis

Cerro Largo sit 10 with 32 points after 27 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 28:30 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Central Espanol Analysis

With 37 points from 27 games and a place of 8, Central Espanol still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 30:33, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Largo won 4 times, Central Espanol won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:1 from Cerro Largo's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.7%)
Predicted formations: Cerro Largo 4-3-3 / Central Espanol -
H2H summary: Cerro Largo wins 4, draws 1, Central Espanol wins 0

Standings

Primera: Promedios
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 63 39 11 13 107:55 52 128
W L D W W
2 64 37 13 14 115:68 47 121
D W W L L
3 27 14 7 6 42:26 16 49
W L D W D
4 64 29 20 15 87:61 26 107
W D W W W
5 64 27 21 16 71:58 13 102
L W D W D
6 63 27 15 21 98:81 17 96
W W W W L
7 64 26 14 24 76:76 0 92
D W W L D
8 64 24 18 22 64:68 -4 90
D L D L L
9 27 10 7 10 30:33 -3 37
D L L L W
10 64 22 19 23 75:74 1 85
L D W D W
11 64 20 21 23 69:71 -2 81
L D D D D
12 27 9 7 11 35:32 3 34
L L L L L
13 64 20 16 28 52:82 -30 75
W D L W W
14 64 18 19 27 59:80 -21 73
L W L D W
15 64 14 25 25 63:77 -14 67
L L D D L
16 64 16 13 35 58:98 -40 61
W W L L L
Relegation - Segunda Division