23.05.2026 18:00
Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Referee: Hernan Heras, Uruguay
Cerro Largo
Match Timeline
Boston River
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
41'
Y. Gonzalez ↔ F. Perez
Boston River
45'
A. Hernandez
Cerro Largo
47'
T. Correa
Cerro Largo
🔄
50'
F. Dafonte ↔ G. Ramirez
Boston River
🟨
55'
Santiago Marcel
Cerro Largo
🟨
60'
Agustín Amado
Boston River
🟨
65'
Alexis Piegas
Cerro Largo
🔄
66'
J. S. O'Neill Lopez ↔ M. Mancebo
Boston River
🔄
66'
A. Gonzalez ↔ G. Reyna
Boston River
🔄
69'
G. Viera ↔ N. Ramos
Cerro Largo
🟨
78'
Marco Mancebo
Boston River
🔄
80'
M. Garcia ↔ E. Jourdan
Cerro Largo
🔄
80'
M. Anasco ↔ D. Daguerre
Cerro Largo
🔄
89'
S. Marcel ↔ F. Souza
Cerro Largo
🟥
90+4'
Franco Pérez
Boston River
🔄
90'
T. Correa ↔ B. Barone
Cerro Largo
90'
B. Barone
Cerro Largo

Cerro Largo vs Boston River Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 77.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
77.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cerro Largo Win 47%
Draw 22.3%
Boston River Win 30.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro Largo1.12
Boston River1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WWDLW
16 GF / 20 GA
Boston River Boston River
WLDWL
18 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
6
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 16 matches
Boston River Boston River 16 matches
Cerro Largo Statistic Boston River
5 Wins 6
2 Draws 2
9 Losses 8
16 Goals For 18
20 Goals Against 21
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
6 BTTS Yes 8
9 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro Largo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Boston River in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Boston River having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Boston River. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cerro Largo Analysis

With 17 points from 15 games and a place of 12, Cerro Largo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 16:19, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Pandiani (4 goals), T. Correa (4 goals), D. Daguerre (3 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Boston River Analysis

With 17 points from 15 games and a place of 13, Boston River still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 14:20 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on F. Bonfiglio (4 goals), F. Munoa (3 goals), L. Suhr (3 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Largo won 4 times, Boston River won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:19 from Cerro Largo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.7%)
Predicted formations: Cerro Largo 4-4-2 / Boston River 3-4-3
H2H summary: Cerro Largo wins 4, draws 4, Boston River wins 7

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 5 6 44:22 22 52
W W L D W
2 28 14 10 4 35:22 13 52
W L W D W
3 27 15 5 7 47:31 16 50
W W W W W
4 28 14 7 7 42:27 15 49
L W L D W
5 28 13 4 11 40:36 4 43
D D W W L
6 28 12 7 9 35:34 1 43
D L W L D
7 28 11 9 8 37:27 10 42
L W D W W
8 28 10 8 10 30:33 -3 38
D D L L L
9 28 9 7 12 36:35 1 34
L L L L L
10 28 8 9 11 28:30 -2 33
D L D D D
11 28 8 8 12 32:38 -6 32
D D W W L
12 28 7 11 10 23:30 -7 32
W D L D L
13 28 9 5 14 22:41 -19 32
W W D L W
14 28 8 6 14 27:38 -11 30
L L D W D
15 28 4 13 11 23:37 -14 25
D L L D D
16 28 6 4 18 21:41 -20 22
L W W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)