JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
17.05.2026 06:00
Yodoko Sakura Stadium
Referee: Y. Ohashi
Cerezo Osaka
Match Timeline
Nagoya Grampus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
S. Tanaka · Assist: M. Shibayama
Cerezo Osaka
⚽
22'
Y. Yokoyama · Assist: M. Nakajima
Cerezo Osaka
⚽
39'
Y. Yokoyama
Cerezo Osaka
⚽
42'
Y. Kimura
Nagoya Grampus
VAR
50'
Yuki Nogami
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
53'
H. Okuda ↔ A. Ohata
Cerezo Osaka
⚽
54'
Thiago Andrade · Assist: N. Ishiwatari
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
60'
Y. Yamagishi ↔ K. Nagai
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
60'
T. Uchida ↔ Y. Sato
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
67'
Thiago Andrade ↔ S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
67'
R. Izumi ↔ M. Ono
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
67'
K. Nakayama ↔ H. Koda
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
79'
Ayumu Ohata
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
82'
Y. Yokoyama ↔ S. Kagawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
82'
M. Nakajima ↔ S. Homma
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
82'
M. Shibayama ↔ S. Uejo
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
83'
Y. Nogami ↔ S. Mori
Nagoya Grampus
⚽
87'
S. Sakuragawa · Assist: S. Homma
Cerezo Osaka
⚽
89'
S. Sakuragawa · Assist: S. Homma
Cerezo Osaka

Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cerezo Osaka Win 35.9%
Draw 10.4%
Nagoya Grampus Win 53.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerezo Osaka1.09
Nagoya Grampus1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WWDLW
18 GF / 18 GA
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WLDWL
28 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
9
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
10
3.94
Shots on Goal
4.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 17 matches
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 16 matches
Cerezo Osaka Statistic Nagoya Grampus
5 Wins 8
6 Draws 5
6 Losses 3
18 Goals For 28
18 Goals Against 18
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
9 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 10
1 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 2
3.94 Shots On Goal 4.75
10.88 Total Shots 13.69
5 Corners 5.38
51.1% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nagoya Grampus. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerezo Osaka expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nagoya Grampus in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nagoya Grampus having the stronger overall control. Nagoya Grampus look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 25 points from 16 games, Cerezo Osaka bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 9 wins, 0 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:18, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Thiago Andrade (5 goals), S. Sakuragawa (4 goals), Shunta Tanaka (3 goals), with creative support from M. Shibayama (4 assists), R. Sakata (2 assists), Motohiko Nakajima (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 31 points from 16 games, Nagoya Grampus bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 10 wins, 0 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 30:21, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Y. Yamagishi (9 goals), Y. Kimura (7 goals), Hidemasa Koda (2 goals), with creative support from K. Nakayama (7 assists), Teruki Hara (3 assists), Y. Kimura (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerezo Osaka won 6 times, Nagoya Grampus won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:21 from Cerezo Osaka's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1 / Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Cerezo Osaka wins 6, draws 1, Nagoya Grampus wins 8

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)