JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
18.04.2026 07:00
Yodoko Sakura Stadium
Referee: D. Shiino
Cerezo Osaka
Match Timeline
Kyoto Sanga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
Taiki Hirato
Kyoto Sanga
18'
Thiago Andrade · Assist: M. Shibayama
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
28'
K. Sakai ↔ M. Okugawa
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
50'
Kyo Sato
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
59'
T. Hirato ↔ H. Sugai
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
59'
K. Sato ↔ R. Nakano
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
61'
Thiago Andrade ↔ S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
66'
S. Homma · Assist: N. Ishiwatari
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
71'
S. Yoon ↔ H. Arai
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
72'
Gustavo Barreto ↔ David
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
80'
S. Homma ↔ S. Uejo
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
80'
M. Shibayama ↔ Y. Yokoyama
Cerezo Osaka
VAR
89'
Henrique Trevisan
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
90+5'
Hidehiro Sugai
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
90'
Henrique Trevisan
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
90+3'
M. Nakajima ↔ S. Kagawa
Cerezo Osaka
90'
S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka

Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 84.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
84.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Cerezo Osaka Win 44.4%
Draw 12.8%
Kyoto Sanga Win 42.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerezo Osaka0.96
Kyoto Sanga1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WWDLW
9 GF / 12 GA
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
WLDWL
22 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.83
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
5
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
6
3.9
Shots on Goal
4.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 11 matches
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 12 matches
Cerezo Osaka Statistic Kyoto Sanga
3 Wins 5
3 Draws 3
5 Losses 4
9 Goals For 22
12 Goals Against 14
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
5 BTTS Yes 9
7 Over 1.5 11
5 Over 2.5 6
0 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 2
3.9 Shots On Goal 4.7
10.9 Total Shots 13.6
4.7 Corners 4.9
50.4% Ball Possession 52.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Kyoto Sanga's more proactive style and Cerezo Osaka's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kyoto Sanga. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerezo Osaka expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Kyoto Sanga in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kyoto Sanga having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

So far, Cerezo Osaka have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 14 points from 10 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 10:11 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by S. Sakuragawa (4 goals), Thiago Andrade (3 goals), R. Inoue (1 goals), with creative support from R. Sakata (2 assists), M. Shibayama (2 assists), Shunta Tanaka (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kyoto Sanga Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 17 points from 10 games, Kyoto Sanga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a 17:12 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Marco Tulio (4 goals), Rafael Elias (3 goals), Henrique Trevisan (2 goals), with creative support from F. Honda (3 assists), Marco Tulio (1 assists), Rafael Elias (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerezo Osaka won 6 times, Kyoto Sanga won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:22 from Cerezo Osaka's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.2%)
Predicted formations: Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1 / Kyoto Sanga 4-3-3
H2H summary: Cerezo Osaka wins 6, draws 4, Kyoto Sanga wins 5

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)