JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Yodoko Sakura Stadium
Referee: F. Nakamura
Cerezo Osaka
Match Timeline
FC Tokyo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Kento Hashimoto
FC Tokyo
35'
A. Ohata
FC Tokyo
🔄
37'
Thiago Andrade ↔ S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
🟨
40'
Keita Endo
FC Tokyo
45'
M. Shibayama
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
46'
A. Ohata ↔ K. Noborizato
Cerezo Osaka
49'
Marcelo Ryan · Assist: K. Koizumi
FC Tokyo
🔄
62'
Marcelo Ryan ↔ T. Nakagawa
FC Tokyo
🔄
71'
M. Nakajima ↔ S. Kagawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
71'
Y. Yokoyama ↔ S. Homma
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
76'
K. Hashimoto ↔ M. Morishige
FC Tokyo
🔄
76'
K. Endo ↔ K. Tawaratsumida
FC Tokyo
79'
K. Noborizato · Assist: S. Kagawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
86'
↔ F. Yamada
FC Tokyo
🔄
86'
K. Koizumi ↔ K. Higashi
FC Tokyo
🟨
90+2'
Rikito Inoue
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
90+3'
M. Shibayama ↔ S. Uejo
Cerezo Osaka

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cerezo Osaka Win 48.1%
Draw 9.2%
FC Tokyo Win 42.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerezo Osaka1.25
FC Tokyo1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WWDLW
27 GF / 21 GA
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
WLDWL
32 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1
11
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
10
4.33
Shots on Goal
5.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 19 matches
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 19 matches
Cerezo Osaka Statistic FC Tokyo
7 Wins 10
6 Draws 6
6 Losses 3
27 Goals For 32
21 Goals Against 19
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1
11 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 6
4.33 Shots On Goal 5.44
11.28 Total Shots 15.67
4.83 Corners 5.17
50.6% Ball Possession 52.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerezo Osaka expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Tokyo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Tokyo having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FC Tokyo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cerezo Osaka come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

Cerezo Osaka approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 31 points after 18 outings. With 11 wins, 0 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 30:21, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by S. Sakuragawa (6 goals), Thiago Andrade (6 goals), Shunta Tanaka (4 goals), with creative support from M. Shibayama (5 assists), Motohiko Nakajima (4 assists), Nelson Ishiwatari (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

FC Tokyo Analysis

FC Tokyo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 37 points after 18 outings. They have recorded 13 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a 32:18 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Kein Sato (5 goals), Marcelo Ryan (5 goals), Ryunosuke Sato (5 goals), with creative support from Kein Sato (4 assists), Marcelo Ryan (4 assists), K. Hashimoto (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerezo Osaka won 2 times, FC Tokyo won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:27 from Cerezo Osaka's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1 / FC Tokyo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Cerezo Osaka wins 2, draws 6, FC Tokyo wins 7
Stats
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
5 Corner Kicks 4
12 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 2
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Goal 4
7 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 2
8 Shots insidebox 7
7 Shots outsidebox 5
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
459 Total passes 404
374 Passes accurate 320
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cerezo Osaka
Formation
FC Tokyo
K. Nakamura
K. Nakamura
D. Cools
D. Cools
R. Inoue
R. Inoue
S. Hatanaka
S. Hatanaka
A. Ohata
A. Ohata
N. Ishiwatari
N. Ishiwatari
S. Tanaka
S. Tanaka
M. Shibayama
M. Shibayama
M. Nakajima
M. Nakajima
Y. Yokoyama
Y. Yokoyama
Thiago Andrade
Thiago Andrade
H. Tanaka
H. Tanaka
S. Muroya
S. Muroya
A. Scholz
A. Scholz
H. Inamura
H. Inamura
K. Hashimoto
K. Hashimoto
K. Sato
K. Sato
K. Koizumi
🎯
K. Koizumi
K. Tokiwa
K. Tokiwa
K. Endo
K. Endo
Marcelo Ryan
Marcelo Ryan
R. Sato
R. Sato
Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
K. Nakamura
G
27
D. Cools
D
4
R. Inoue
🟨 90+2'
D
44
S. Hatanaka
D
66
A. Ohata
⚽ 35' ↓ 46'
D
18
N. Ishiwatari
M
10
S. Tanaka
M
48
M. Shibayama
⚽ 45' ↓ 90+3'
M
13
M. Nakajima
↓ 71'
M
14
Y. Yokoyama
↓ 71'
M
11
Thiago Andrade
↓ 37'
F
Substitutes
21
Kim Jin-Hyeon
G
8
S. Kagawa
🎯 79' ↑ 71'
M
6
K. Noborizato
⚽ 79' ↑ 46'
D
5
H. Kida
M
19
S. Homma
↑ 71'
M
35
K. Yoshino
M
7
S. Uejo
↑ 90+3'
M
9
S. Sakuragawa
↑ 37'
F
3
H. Tanaka
D
FC Tokyo 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
H. Tanaka
G
2
S. Muroya
D
24
A. Scholz
D
17
H. Inamura
D
42
K. Hashimoto
↓ 76' 🟨 7'
D
16
K. Sato
M
37
K. Koizumi
🎯 49' ↓ 86'
M
27
K. Tokiwa
M
22
K. Endo
↓ 76' 🟨 40'
M
9
Marcelo Ryan
⚽ 49' ↓ 62'
F
23
R. Sato
F
Substitutes
31
M. Kobayashi
G
3
M. Morishige
↑ 76'
D
71
F. Yamada
↑ 86'
M
32
K. Doi
D
33
K. Tawaratsumida
↑ 76'
M
10
K. Higashi
↑ 86'
M
39
T. Nakagawa
↑ 62'
F
15
R. Omori
D
28
L. Nozawa
F
Last matches: Cerezo Osaka
24.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
3
2
W
17.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
6
1
W
09.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
06.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
03.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
0
0
D
25.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
18.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
1
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
3
L
22.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
2
L
14.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
2
1
W
07.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
0
0
D
28.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
22.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
15.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Cerezo Osaka
TIAMO Hirakata
1
2
L
07.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
Last matches: FC Tokyo
23.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashima
0
1
L
16.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
0
0
D
10.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
2
1
W
06.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
0
3
L
02.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
29.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
3
1
W
24.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
5
2
W
11.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
1
W
05.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
0
0
D
01.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
0
0
D
18.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
0
W
28.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
0
2
L
21.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
14.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
1
1
D
07.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashima
1
1
D
18.01.26
Fri
FC Tokyo
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4
3
W
H2H: Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo
30.05.26
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
06.08.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
L
14.06.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
2
D
20.04.25
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
08.12.24
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
L
24.02.24
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
06.08.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
0
1
L
24.05.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
0
0
D
15.04.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
1
2
W
08.03.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
1
0
W
12.10.22
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
4
0
L
06.03.22
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
0
1
L
21.07.21
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
3
3
D
06.03.21
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
3
2
L
23.09.20
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
0
L
Last matches: Cerezo Osaka
17.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
6
1
W
09.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
03.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
18.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
2
L
07.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
0
0
D
22.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Cerezo Osaka
TIAMO Hirakata
1
2
L
07.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
H2H at home: Cerezo Osaka
30.05.26
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
20.04.25
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
24.02.24
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
06.08.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
0
1
L
08.03.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
1
0
W
06.03.22
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
0
1
L
21.07.21
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
3
3
D
Last matches: FC Tokyo
23.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashima
0
1
L
16.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
0
0
D
29.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
3
1
W
11.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
1
W
01.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
0
0
D
18.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
21.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
H2H away: FC Tokyo
30.05.26
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
20.04.25
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
24.02.24
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
06.08.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
0
1
W
08.03.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
1
0
L
06.03.22
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
0
1
W
21.07.21
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
3
3
D

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
W W W W W
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
W L W L W
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
L W W L W
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
W W W L W
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
W L W W W
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
L L W W W
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
W W L W L
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
W W W L L
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
L W L L L
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
W L L W L
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
L L W W W
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
L W W L W
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
W L L L L
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
L L W W W
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
W W W L L
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
W L L L L
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
L L L L W
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
L W L W L
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
L L L W L
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
L L W L W