JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
03.05.2026 06:00
Yodoko Sakura Stadium
Referee: A. Kamimura
Cerezo Osaka
Match Timeline
Avispa Fukuoka
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
S. Usui
Avispa Fukuoka
🟨
35'
Nelson Ishiwatari
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
37'
Y. Hashimoto ↔ Y. Maejima
Avispa Fukuoka
🟨
40'
Shunta Tanaka
Cerezo Osaka
45'
R. Inoue · Assist: M. Shibayama
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
62'
Y. Kitajima ↔ K. Yamawaki
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
62'
K. Okuno ↔ K. Shiihashi
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
63'
S. Homma ↔ D. Cools
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
63'
M. Shibayama ↔ S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
73'
M. Nakajima ↔ S. Kagawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
73'
Thiago Andrade ↔ Y. Yokoyama
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
82'
S. Usui ↔ Y. Michiwaki
Avispa Fukuoka
🔄
82'
K. Fujimoto ↔ K. Fukushima
Avispa Fukuoka

Cerezo Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.8%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cerezo Osaka Win 40.9%
Draw 20.1%
Avispa Fukuoka Win 39.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerezo Osaka1.29
Avispa Fukuoka1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WWDLW
13 GF / 14 GA
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka
WLDWL
28 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.83
6
BTTS Yes
12
7
Over 2.5
9
4
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 14 matches
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 18 matches
Cerezo Osaka Statistic Avispa Fukuoka
4 Wins 5
4 Draws 7
6 Losses 6
13 Goals For 28
14 Goals Against 33
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.83
6 BTTS Yes 12
9 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 9
0 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 4
4 Shots On Goal 3.5
10.62 Total Shots 11.43
4.46 Corners 4.5
48.5% Ball Possession 42.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Cerezo Osaka's more proactive style and Avispa Fukuoka's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerezo Osaka expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Avispa Fukuoka in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avispa Fukuoka having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Avispa Fukuoka. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

So far, Cerezo Osaka have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 19 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, while the 15:13 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on S. Sakuragawa (4 goals), Thiago Andrade (4 goals), Dion Cools (1 goals), with creative support from R. Sakata (2 assists), M. Shibayama (2 assists), Shunta Tanaka (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Avispa Fukuoka Analysis

From their first 14 matches, Avispa Fukuoka have collected 17 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, while the 17:25 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Shosei Usui (2 goals), Tomoya Miki (2 goals), Y. Hashimoto (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Hashimoto (2 assists), Tomoya Miki (1 assists), G. Miura (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerezo Osaka won 6 times, Avispa Fukuoka won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:15 from Cerezo Osaka's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80%)
Predicted formations: Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1 / Avispa Fukuoka 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Cerezo Osaka wins 6, draws 4, Avispa Fukuoka wins 5

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)