URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
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Parque Palermo
Referee: J. Feres

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.3%
Odds 2.84
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.48
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.3%
2.84
BTTS No
60.3%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.48
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.20
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50
Correct Score 1-0
-
6.50
Probability Distribution
Central Espanol Win 68.3%
Draw 5%
Cerro Largo Win 26.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Central Espanol1.23
Cerro Largo1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Central Espanol Central Espanol
WWDLW
27 GF / 25 GA
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WLDWL
22 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
11
BTTS Yes
7
11
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Central Espanol Central Espanol 20 matches
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 20 matches
Central Espanol Statistic Cerro Largo
9 Wins 7
5 Draws 4
6 Losses 9
27 Goals For 22
25 Goals Against 21
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
11 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 12
11 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cerro Largo. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Cerro Largo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Central Espanol Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Central Espanol have collected 32 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 27:25 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cerro Largo Analysis

Cerro Largo sit 10 with 25 points after 20 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, while the 22:21 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Central Espanol won 3 times, Cerro Largo won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:13 from Central Espanol's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Central Espanol - / Cerro Largo 4-3-3
H2H summary: Central Espanol wins 3, draws 3, Cerro Largo wins 6
Last matches: Central Espanol
12.07.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
0
0
D
06.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
01.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
09.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
2
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Albion FC
1
6
L
12.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Danubio
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Club Nacional
1
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
24.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Wanderers
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Juventud
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Progreso
3
0
W
Last matches: Cerro Largo
13.07.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
08.06.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
11.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Penarol
2
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Progreso
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
20.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
2
2
D
30.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Danubio
2
0
W
24.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
0
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Deportivo Maldonado
3
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
3
1
W
09.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Juventud
1
0
W
H2H: Central Espanol vs Cerro Largo
25.07.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
15.03.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
22.09.18
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
28.04.18
H2H
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
1
0
L
15.11.17
H2H
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
3
0
L
28.06.17
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
10.09.16
H2H
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
3
0
L
27.03.16
H2H
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
0
1
W
15.05.15
H2H
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
1
0
L
06.12.14
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
12.05.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
17.11.12
H2H
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
0
0
D
Last matches: Central Espanol
06.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
09.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
2
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Danubio
2
2
D
31.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
28.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Wanderers
0
1
L
15.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
2
1
W
18.10.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Fenix
2
1
W
06.10.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Atenas
0
1
L
13.09.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Rentistas
1
0
W
19.08.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
11.08.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Uruguay Montevideo
1
0
W
03.08.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Albion FC
1
1
D
20.07.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Rampla Juniors
4
1
W
05.07.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Artigas
0
0
D
27.06.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
15.06.25
Seg
Central Espanol
La Luz
0
0
D
09.06.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Cerrito
3
0
W
H2H at home: Central Espanol
25.07.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
15.03.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
22.09.18
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
28.06.17
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
06.12.14
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
12.05.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
Last matches: Cerro Largo
08.06.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
03.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Progreso
1
0
W
20.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
2
2
D
24.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
0
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
3
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Juventud
1
0
W
03.11.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
19.10.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
CA River Plate
1
1
D
04.10.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
1
2
L
20.09.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
07.09.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Miramar
1
1
D
09.08.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Progreso
2
1
W
02.08.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Juventud
2
0
W
20.10.18
Seg
Cerro Largo
Villa Teresa
3
2
W
13.10.18
Seg
Cerro Largo
Cerrito
1
0
W
H2H away: Cerro Largo
25.07.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
1
W
15.03.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
W
22.09.18
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
28.06.17
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
0
L
06.12.14
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
2
1
L
12.05.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.71
Draw 2.95
Home 2.84
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.67
Draw 1.95
Home 3.51
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.11
Over 1.5 1.51
Over 1.75 1.66
Over 2.0 1.93
Over 2.25 2.28
Over 2.5 2.62
Over 3.5 5.16
Under 0.5 6.44
Under 1.5 2.53
Under 1.75 2.20
Under 2.0 1.87
Under 2.25 1.62
Under 2.5 1.48
Under 3.5 1.16
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 3.20
Home 2.55
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 1.95
Home 3.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.20
Home 3.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 3.5 5.00
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 26.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.71
Draw 2.96
Home 2.76
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.44
Draw 1.83
Home 3.56
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.05
Draw 2.13
Home 3.12
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 0.75 1.08
Over 1.0 1.11
Over 1.25 1.30
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 1.75 1.65
Over 2.0 1.92
Over 2.25 2.19
Over 2.5 2.61
Over 2.75 3.00
Over 3.0 5.35
Over 3.25 4.57
Over 3.5 7.33
Over 3.75 6.50
Over 4.0 17.00
Over 4.5 13.20
Over 5.5 32.00
Over 6.5 36.00
Under 0.5 10.60
Under 0.75 6.05
Under 1.0 6.63
Under 1.25 3.14
Under 1.5 2.49
Under 1.75 2.15
Under 2.0 1.88
Under 2.25 1.59
Under 2.5 1.52
Under 2.75 1.31
Under 3.0 1.18
Under 3.25 1.14
Under 3.5 1.12
Under 3.75 1.05
Under 4.0 1.03
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.95
Draw 2.95
Home 2.43
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 2.00
Home 3.15
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.23
Home 2.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.09
Over 1.0 1.13
Over 1.5 1.47
Over 2.0 1.84
Over 2.25 2.16
Over 2.5 2.45
Over 2.75 2.95
Over 3.0 3.90
Over 3.25 4.25
Over 3.5 4.60
Under 0.5 6.00
Under 1.0 4.90
Under 1.5 2.48
Under 2.0 1.84
Under 2.25 1.60
Under 2.5 1.47
Under 2.75 1.34
Under 3.0 1.20
Under 3.25 1.17
Under 3.5 1.15

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D D D D
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
L D W W D
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
L D W L L
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D W L W
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
L D D W L
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W W L W W
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
L D W L W
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D D D L
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
W L D W D
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W W D W D
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L D D D L
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
W D D W W
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L D D L L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W L D L L
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
W L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
W W L L W