BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Presidente Vargas
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil
Ceara
Match Timeline
Ponte Preta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Julio de Oliveira
Ponte Preta
🟨
19'
Julio de Oliveira
Ponte Preta
🟥
19'
Julio de Oliveira
Ponte Preta
🟨
21'
Diego Porfirio
Ponte Preta
🔄
22'
Kevyson ↔ M. L. Diego
Ponte Preta
29'
Lucca · Assist: Giovanni Pavani
Ceara
🟨
43'
Lucas Cunha
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
David da Hora ↔ Rodrigo Souza
Ponte Preta
🔄
49'
Thalisson ↔ Luiz Otavio
Ceara
🔄
62'
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo ↔ Melk
Ceara
🔄
62'
Giovanni Pavani ↔ Richardson
Ceara
🔄
64'
S. Palacios ↔ Baianinho
Ponte Preta
🟨
69'
João Gabriel
Ceara
78'
Giulio · Assist: Gabriel Rocha
Ceara
🔄
83'
Andre Lima ↔ Gustavo Telles
Ponte Preta
🔄
83'
Elvis ↔ Gustavo Almeida
Ponte Preta
🔄
84'
Vina ↔ Lucas Mugni
Ceara
🔄
84'
Lucca ↔ R. Lopez
Ceara
🟨
86'
Gustavo Almeida
Ponte Preta

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.2%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 72.2%
Draw 17.9%
Ponte Preta Win 9.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara1.38
Ponte Preta0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
20 GF / 25 GA
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WLDWL
15 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.95
10
BTTS Yes
11
6
Over 2.5
11
4.05
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 20 matches
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 20 matches
Ceara Statistic Ponte Preta
5 Wins 2
7 Draws 3
8 Losses 15
20 Goals For 15
25 Goals Against 39
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.95
10 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 16
6 Over 2.5 11
2 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 2
8 Failed To Score 8
4.05 Shots On Goal 3.5
13.55 Total Shots 10.9
5.8 Corners 4.9
50% Ball Possession 43.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ponte Preta. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Ceara arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 16 with 22 points compared to Ponte Preta in 20 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Ponte Preta arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ceara expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and Ponte Preta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 22 points from 20 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 20:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Melk (4 goals), Júlio César (2 goals), Matheus Araújo (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), Júlio César (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ponte Preta Analysis

With 9 points from 20 games and a place of 20, Ponte Preta still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 15:39 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 3 times, Ponte Preta won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:10 from Ceara's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 4-4-1-1 / Ponte Preta 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 3, draws 3, Ponte Preta wins 2
Stats
Ceara Ceara
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
3 Corner Kicks 2
12 Fouls 16
5 Offsides 1
69% Ball Possession 31%
20 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Goal 1
7 Shots off Goal 4
5 Blocked Shots 2
11 Shots insidebox 2
9 Shots outsidebox 5
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
474 Total passes 208
423 Passes accurate 140
2.08 expected_goals 0.97
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Ceara
Formation
Ponte Preta
Richard
Richard
Bryan Borges
Bryan Borges
Thalisson
Thalisson
Gabriel Rocha
🎯
Gabriel Rocha
Savio
Savio
Giovanni Pavani
🎯
Giovanni Pavani
Joao Gabriel
Joao Gabriel
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
Vina
Vina
Giulio
Giulio
Lucca
Lucca
Vinicius Ferrari
Vinicius Ferrari
S. Palacios
S. Palacios
Lucas Cunha
Lucas Cunha
Diego Porfirio
Diego Porfirio
Julio
Julio
Andre Lima
Andre Lima
Leo Gomes
Leo Gomes
Kevyson
Kevyson
David da Hora
David da Hora
Elvis
Elvis
Brandao
Brandao
Ceara 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Richard
G
31
Bryan Borges
D
3
Thalisson
↓ 49'
D
71
Gabriel Rocha
🎯 78'
D
6
Savio
D
21
Giovanni Pavani
🎯 29' ↓ 62'
M
81
Joao Gabriel
🟨 69'
M
20
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
↓ 62'
M
29
Vina
↓ 84'
M
35
Giulio
⚽ 78'
M
99
Lucca
⚽ 29' ↓ 84'
F
Substitutes
22
Matheus Nogueira
G
12
Sanchez
D
90
Kaua Ziegler
F
45
Vini Uchella
M
40
Melk
↑ 62'
M
11
Lucas Mugni
↑ 84'
M
26
Richardson
↑ 62'
M
13
Luiz Otavio
↑ 49'
D
7
R. Lopez
↑ 84'
F
8
Matheus Araujo
M
88
Caio
M
60
Enzo Lodovico
F
Ponte Preta 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
30
Vinicius Ferrari
23
S. Palacios
↓ 64'
D
3
Lucas Cunha
🟨 43'
D
13
Diego Porfirio
🟨 21'
D
2
Julio
🟨 11' 🟨 19' 🟥 19'
M
8
Andre Lima
↓ 83'
M
16
Leo Gomes
M
32
Kevyson
↓ 22'
M
18
David da Hora
↓ 46'
F
10
Elvis
↓ 83'
F
21
Brandao
F
Substitutes
1
Guilherme Viana
11
Baianinho
↑ 64'
F
17
Miguel Morais
M
4
M. L. Diego
↑ 22'
D
35
Gustavo Telles
↑ 83'
M
5
Rodrigo Souza
↑ 46'
M
44
Gustavo Almeida
↑ 83' 🟨 86'
D
6
Juan Rodrigues
D
9
Joao Damiao
F
Last matches: Ceara
22.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
2
1
W
19.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
15.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
3
L
26.07.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
4
3
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
Last matches: Ponte Preta
23.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Avai
0
2
L
19.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
0
6
L
14.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
28.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Athletic Club
1
1
D
22.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Operario-PR
2
3
L
18.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Goias
1
2
L
08.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Criciuma
1
2
L
03.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Fortaleza EC
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Atletico Goianiense
0
2
L
22.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Juventude
0
3
L
09.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Cuiaba
1
2
L
01.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Botafogo SP
0
0
D
24.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
CRB
2
4
L
18.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Londrina
1
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Sport Recife
1
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
São Bernardo
0
3
L
24.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
America Mineiro
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Avai
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
0
1
L
H2H: Ceara vs Ponte Preta
07.08.26
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
02.04.26
H2H
Ponte Preta
Ceara
1
1
D
12.10.24
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
26.06.24
H2H
Ponte Preta
Ceara
3
1
L
20.08.23
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
07.05.23
H2H
Ponte Preta
Ceara
0
0
D
27.09.14
H2H
Ponte Preta
Ceara
3
1
L
24.05.14
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
3
2
W
Last matches: Ceara
22.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
2
1
W
15.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
3
L
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ceara
07.08.26
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
12.10.24
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
20.08.23
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
24.05.14
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
3
2
W
Last matches: Ponte Preta
19.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
0
6
L
22.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Operario-PR
2
3
L
03.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Fortaleza EC
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Atletico Goianiense
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Juventude
0
3
L
24.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
CRB
2
4
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
São Bernardo
0
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Avai
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
22.03.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Athletic Club
1
2
L
H2H away: Ponte Preta
07.08.26
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
L
12.10.24
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
0
L
20.08.23
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
24.05.14
H2H
Ceara
Ponte Preta
3
2
L

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 24 12 8 4 25:17 8 44
L D W L D
3 24 12 5 7 35:25 10 41
D W W L L
4 24 11 7 6 39:21 18 40
W W D L W
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 24 9 11 4 32:22 10 38
W L W W D
7 24 10 6 8 35:34 1 36
L W D W W
8 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
9 24 9 9 6 27:23 4 36
W D L D W
10 24 8 10 6 25:25 0 34
L L W W D
11 24 9 6 9 23:29 -6 33
D L L W L
12 24 7 12 5 21:18 3 33
D W W D D
13 24 8 8 8 33:27 6 32
D D L W L
14 24 8 7 9 28:26 2 31
L D W W L
15 24 8 7 9 28:27 1 31
D W D D D
16 24 8 5 11 27:30 -3 29
W W W L L
17
Ceara Home
24 7 7 10 25:30 -5 28
W L L W W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 24 2 5 17 16:42 -26 11
L L L L W
20 24 2 4 18 16:50 -34 10
L L D L D
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