BRAZIL SERIE B
18.09.2026 23:30

Ceara vs Novorizontino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.9%
Odds 2.40
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 2.13
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.9%
2.40
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
2.13
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.07
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 31%
Draw 11.1%
Novorizontino Win 57.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara0.98
Novorizontino1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
29 GF / 36 GA
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WLDWL
48 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
15
BTTS Yes
15
10
Over 2.5
16
4.21
Shots on Goal
5.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 28 matches
Novorizontino Novorizontino 28 matches
Ceara Statistic Novorizontino
8 Wins 14
8 Draws 8
12 Losses 6
29 Goals For 48
36 Goals Against 25
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
15 BTTS Yes 15
21 Over 1.5 20
10 Over 2.5 16
3 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 7
4.21 Shots On Goal 5.18
13.79 Total Shots 14.96
5.75 Corners 6.14
51.5% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Novorizontino's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Novorizontino carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 49 points while Ceara sit 16 on 31, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Novorizontino look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Novorizontino.

Ceara Analysis

With 31 points from 27 games and a place of 16, Ceara still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 12 defeats with a 28:35 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Melk (4 goals), Lucas Lima (3 goals), Richard (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), Juan Alano (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Novorizontino Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 49 points from 27 games, Novorizontino bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 14 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, with a 47:24 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Robson (9 goals), Romulo (6 goals), Matheus Bianqui (4 goals), with creative support from Romulo (7 assists), Robson (4 assists), Juninho (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 2 times, Novorizontino won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:9 from Ceara's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 4-2-3-1 / Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 2, draws 0, Novorizontino wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 8 6 48:25 23 50
D W W W W
2 28 14 8 6 30:17 13 50
L W D D W
3 28 14 6 8 40:31 9 48
D W L W D
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 28 12 10 6 36:26 10 46
W W D W W
7 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 28 10 11 7 37:28 9 41
L W L L W
10 28 10 10 8 33:30 3 40
W L W L L
11 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
12 28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
13 28 10 8 10 39:31 8 38
W L W L D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15
Ceara Home
28 8 8 12 29:36 -7 32
D L W L W
16 28 8 7 13 31:35 -4 31
L L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 28 4 5 19 21:48 -27 17
L W L W L
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
Promotion
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