BRAZIL SERIE B
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 41.1%
Draw 28.9%
Cuiaba Win 30%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara0.93
Cuiaba0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
22 GF / 25 GA
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WLDWL
15 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
10
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
3
4.24
Shots on Goal
4.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 21 matches
Cuiaba Cuiaba 20 matches
Ceara Statistic Cuiaba
6 Wins 5
7 Draws 10
8 Losses 5
22 Goals For 15
25 Goals Against 15
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
10 BTTS Yes 6
15 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 10
4.24 Shots On Goal 4.35
13.86 Total Shots 12.55
5.67 Corners 5.25
50.9% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ceara expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and Cuiaba in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cuiaba having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cuiaba. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Ceara Analysis

With 25 points from 21 games and a place of 14, Ceara still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 22:25, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Melk (4 goals), Júlio César (2 goals), Lucas Lima (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), Júlio César (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 25 points from 20 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 15:15, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through João Basso (2 goals), Hernandes (2 goals), Pepê (1 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), João Basso (1 assists), Hernandes (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 2 times, Cuiaba won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from Ceara's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (71.1%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 4-4-1-1 / Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 2, draws 3, Cuiaba wins 0
Last matches: Ceara
07.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
4
3
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
Last matches: Cuiaba
27.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Juventude
0
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
São Bernardo
2
2
D
02.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
America Mineiro
1
0
W
25.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Londrina
2
2
D
21.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Avai
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Vila Nova
1
0
W
09.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
CRB
2
0
W
22.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Athletic Club
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Operario-PR
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ceara
0
2
L
31.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
21.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
0
0
D
H2H: Ceara vs Cuiaba
04.04.26
H2H
Cuiaba
Ceara
0
2
W
16.10.22
H2H
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
1
D
18.06.22
H2H
Cuiaba
Ceara
0
0
D
07.11.21
H2H
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
0
W
11.07.21
H2H
Cuiaba
Ceara
2
2
D
Last matches: Ceara
07.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ceara
16.10.22
H2H
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
1
D
07.11.21
H2H
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
0
W
Last matches: Cuiaba
27.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Juventude
0
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Cuiaba
São Bernardo
2
2
D
21.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Avai
0
1
L
09.06.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
22.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Athletic Club
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Operario-PR
0
0
D
31.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
H2H away: Cuiaba
16.10.22
H2H
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
1
D
07.11.21
H2H
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
0
L

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 11 7 2 23:12 11 40
D W W W W
2 20 10 5 5 22:12 10 35
W L W W D
3 21 10 5 6 29:28 1 35
L L W D W
4 20 10 4 6 23:19 4 34
W L W L W
5 20 10 4 6 27:24 3 34
L W L L W
6 20 9 6 5 32:19 13 33
W L L L W
7 20 8 7 5 23:20 3 31
W W D W L
8 21 8 6 7 31:24 7 30
W L L D D
9 20 8 5 7 31:32 -1 29
W W W D L
10 20 8 5 7 21:26 -5 29
L D W D W
11 20 6 11 3 25:19 6 29
D D D D L
12 20 6 10 4 19:18 1 28
D W D D L
13 20 7 4 9 24:24 0 25
D W L L D
14
Ceara Home
21 6 7 8 22:25 -3 25
W W L D D
15 20 5 10 5 15:15 0 25
D L L D W
16 20 6 6 8 24:21 3 24
L W D D W
17 20 5 5 10 27:31 -4 20
L L D D W
18 20 5 5 10 21:27 -6 20
L W D W L
19 20 2 5 13 14:31 -17 11
W L D D L
20 21 2 3 16 15:41 -26 9
L D L L L
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