BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo
Referee: A. Filho
Ceara
Match Timeline
Botafogo SP
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Yuri Felipe Santos da Conceicao
Botafogo SP
🔄
50'
Gabriel Inocencio ↔ Pedro Henrique
Botafogo SP
🔄
54'
Fernando ↔ Sanchez
Ceara
🔄
54'
R. Ramos ↔ Enzo Lodovico
Ceara
🔄
55'
Wendel Silva ↔ Lucca
Ceara
🔄
61'
Matheus Araujo ↔ Matheusinho
Ceara
🔄
66'
Jefferson Nem ↔ Wesley Santos
Botafogo SP
🔄
66'
Kelvin ↔ Ze Hugo
Botafogo SP
🔄
67'
Hygor ↔ Arthur Caike
Botafogo SP
🟨
71'
Pedrinho
Botafogo SP
🟨
73'
Éder
Ceara
77'
Rafael Gava
Botafogo SP
🔄
79'
Richardson ↔ Pedro Esli
Ceara
🔄
83'
Rafael Gava ↔ Erik Rebello
Botafogo SP
VAR
89'
Éder
Ceara
🟨
90+5'
Lucca
Ceara

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.4%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 74.4%
Draw 7.8%
Botafogo SP Win 17.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara1.09
Botafogo SP1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
15 GF / 15 GA
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WLDWL
13 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1
8
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
5
4.46
Shots on Goal
3.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 13 matches
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 13 matches
Ceara Statistic Botafogo SP
4 Wins 3
5 Draws 4
4 Losses 6
15 Goals For 13
15 Goals Against 13
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1
8 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 5
4.46 Shots On Goal 3.23
13.38 Total Shots 11.23
5.31 Corners 6.08
48.5% Ball Possession 46.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Botafogo SP. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Botafogo SP having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 16 points from 12 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats with a 14:14 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Melk (4 goals), Juan Alano (2 goals), Julio Cesar (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Julio Cesar (1 assists), Fernandinho (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Botafogo SP Analysis

Botafogo SP sit 16 with 10 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 11:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Everton Morelli (6 goals), Hygor (2 goals), Luizão (1 goals), with creative support from Patrick Brey (3 assists), Rafael Gava (3 assists), Everton Morelli (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 3 times, Botafogo SP won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:5 from Ceara's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 3-4-2-1 / Botafogo SP 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 3, draws 1, Botafogo SP wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17
Ceara Home
25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
Promotion
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