BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Presidente Vargas
Referee: J. Pinheiro
Ceara
Match Timeline
Avai
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Luiz Otávio
Ceara
🟨
5'
Éder
Ceara
19'
Julio Cesar · Assist: Melk
Ceara
🟨
38'
Walace dos Santos França
Avai
45'
Melk · Assist: R. Ramos
Ceara
🟨
48'
Matheus Araújo
Ceara
🔄
57'
Wallison ↔ Wesley Gasolina
Avai
🔄
57'
Thayllon ↔ Sorriso
Avai
60'
Sorriso · Assist: Jean Lucas
Avai
🔄
62'
Wendel Silva ↔ Gabriel Amaral
Ceara
🟨
67'
Douglas Teixeira
Avai
🔄
70'
Fernando ↔ Sanchez
Ceara
🔄
70'
Matheus Araujo ↔ Gustavo Prado
Ceara
🔄
70'
Diego ↔ Richardson
Ceara
🔄
78'
R. Ramos ↔ Enzo Lodovico
Ceara
🔄
78'
DG ↔ Wenderson
Avai
🔄
78'
Walace Franca ↔ Leo Gamalho
Avai
🔄
82'
Guilherme Aquino ↔ Gabriel Simples
Avai
🔄
88'
Melk ↔ Matheusinho
Ceara
🟨
90'
Paulo Vitor
Avai
🔄
90+2'
Paulo Vitor ↔ Romildo Del Piage
Avai

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.2%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 62.2%
Draw 6.8%
Avai Win 31.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara1.2
Avai1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
12 GF / 13 GA
Avai Avai
WLDWL
11 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
6
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
5
4.73
Shots on Goal
3.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 11 matches
Avai Avai 11 matches
Ceara Statistic Avai
3 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
4 Losses 5
12 Goals For 11
13 Goals Against 15
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
6 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 4
4.73 Shots On Goal 3.36
13.64 Total Shots 11.45
5.36 Corners 3.73
49.8% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Avai. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Avai having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara sit 13 with 13 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 12:13, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Melk (3 goals), Juan Alano (2 goals), Matheus Araujo (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (2 assists), Fernandinho (1 assists), Julio Cesar (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Avai Analysis

Avai approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 10 points from 11 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 11:15 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Walace Franca (3 goals), Luiz Henrique (2 goals), Paulo Vitor (2 goals), with creative support from Thayllon (2 assists), Jean Lucas (1 assists), Allyson (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 7 times, Avai won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:14 from Ceara's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 4-2-3-1 / Avai 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 7, draws 5, Avai wins 3
Stats
Ceara Ceara
Avai Avai
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
8 Corner Kicks 0
14 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
42% Ball Possession 58%
17 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Goal 2
10 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 5
6 Shots outsidebox 6
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
289 Total passes 408
215 Passes accurate 347
0.93 expected_goals 0.40
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Avai
Formation
Ceara
Leo Aragao
Leo Aragao
Wallison
Wallison
Guilherme Aquino
Guilherme Aquino
Joao Maistro
Joao Maistro
DG
DG
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor
Luiz Henrique
Luiz Henrique
Thayllon
Thayllon
Daniel Penha
Daniel Penha
Jean Lucas
🎯
Jean Lucas
Walace Franca
Walace Franca
Richard
Richard
Julio Cesar
Julio Cesar
Luiz Otavio
Luiz Otavio
Eder
Eder
R. Ramos
🎯
R. Ramos
Diego
Diego
Joao Gabriel
Joao Gabriel
Fernando
Fernando
Melk
🎯
Melk
Wendel Silva
Wendel Silva
Matheus Araujo
Matheus Araujo
Avai 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
41
Leo Aragao
G
2
Wallison
↓ 57'
D
15
Guilherme Aquino
↓ 82'
D
50
Joao Maistro
D
36
DG
↓ 78' 🟨 67'
D
25
Paulo Vitor
↓ 90+2' 🟨 90'
M
8
Luiz Henrique
M
43
Thayllon
↓ 57'
M
14
Daniel Penha
M
10
Jean Lucas
🎯 60'
M
57
Walace Franca
↓ 78' 🟨 38'
F
Substitutes
21
Otavio Passos
G
52
Wesley Gasolina
↑ 57'
D
95
Wenderson
↑ 78'
M
4
Gabriel Simples
↑ 82'
D
18
Hyan
M
11
Sorriso
⚽ 60' ↑ 57'
F
9
Leo Gamalho
↑ 78'
F
66
Quaresma
D
5
Romildo Del Piage
↑ 90+2'
M
Ceara 3-3-3 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Richard
G
18
Julio Cesar
⚽ 19'
D
4
Luiz Otavio
D
33
Eder
🟨 5'
D
2
R. Ramos
🎯 45' ↓ 78'
20
Diego
↓ 70'
M
81
Joao Gabriel
M
17
Fernando
↓ 70'
M
40
Melk
⚽ 45' 🎯 19' ↓ 88'
F
9
Wendel Silva
↓ 62'
F
8
Matheus Araujo
↓ 70' 🟨 48'
F
Substitutes
41
Gustavo Martins
G
12
Sanchez
↑ 70'
D
98
Matheusinho
↑ 88'
M
10
Juan Alano
F
30
Gustavo Prado
↑ 70'
M
35
Giulio
F
83
Gabriel Amaral
↑ 62'
F
80
Pedro Esli
M
26
Richardson
↑ 70'
M
13
Luiz Otavio
🟨 -5'
D
63
Gilmar
D
60
Enzo Lodovico
↑ 78'
F
Last matches: Ceara
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
1
1
D
Last matches: Avai
12.07.26
Ser
Avai
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
06.07.26
Ser
Avai
Botafogo SP
1
3
L
28.06.26
Ser
Avai
Athletic Club
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Avai
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.06.26
Ser
Avai
Londrina
2
3
L
30.05.26
Ser
Avai
Criciuma
1
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Avai
Goias
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Avai
Vila Nova
0
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Avai
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Avai
Novorizontino
3
3
D
26.04.26
Ser
Avai
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Avai
Ponte Preta
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Avai
Sport Recife
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Avai
Operario-PR
0
0
D
02.04.26
Ser
Avai
CRB
1
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Avai
Juventude
2
0
W
H2H: Ceara vs Avai
10.06.26
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
03.11.24
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
0
W
20.07.24
H2H
Avai
Ceara
0
1
W
22.10.23
H2H
Avai
Ceara
1
0
L
28.06.23
H2H
Ceara
Avai
0
0
D
08.11.22
H2H
Avai
Ceara
2
0
L
20.07.22
H2H
Ceara
Avai
1
0
W
13.10.19
H2H
Ceara
Avai
1
0
W
27.05.19
H2H
Avai
Ceara
1
2
W
04.09.16
H2H
Ceara
Avai
0
0
D
28.05.16
H2H
Avai
Ceara
4
2
L
20.09.14
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
2
D
17.05.14
H2H
Avai
Ceara
1
1
D
12.11.13
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
16.08.13
H2H
Avai
Ceara
1
1
D
Last matches: Ceara
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ceara
10.06.26
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
03.11.24
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
0
W
28.06.23
H2H
Ceara
Avai
0
0
D
20.07.22
H2H
Ceara
Avai
1
0
W
13.10.19
H2H
Ceara
Avai
1
0
W
04.09.16
H2H
Ceara
Avai
0
0
D
20.09.14
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
2
D
12.11.13
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
Last matches: Avai
06.07.26
Ser
Avai
Botafogo SP
1
3
L
28.06.26
Ser
Avai
Athletic Club
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Avai
Londrina
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Avai
Vila Nova
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Avai
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Avai
Sport Recife
2
2
D
02.04.26
Ser
Avai
CRB
1
0
W
H2H away: Avai
10.06.26
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
1
L
03.11.24
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
0
L
28.06.23
H2H
Ceara
Avai
0
0
D
20.07.22
H2H
Ceara
Avai
1
0
L
13.10.19
H2H
Ceara
Avai
1
0
L
04.09.16
H2H
Ceara
Avai
0
0
D
20.09.14
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
2
D
12.11.13
H2H
Ceara
Avai
2
1
L

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 9 6 2 20:12 8 33
W W W W D
2 17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W L W L
3 17 9 4 4 22:18 4 31
W W W W L
4 17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L W W W D
5 17 8 5 4 17:8 9 29
W D W W W
6 17 8 4 5 20:17 3 28
L W W D L
7 17 7 5 5 23:16 7 26
D L L L D
8 17 6 8 3 21:15 6 26
D L L D D
9 17 7 4 6 18:23 -5 25
D W W L D
10 17 6 6 5 19:19 0 24
W L W D D
11 17 5 9 3 14:11 3 24
D W D L W
12 17 5 8 4 16:16 0 23
D L W L D
13 17 6 3 8 21:21 0 21
L D L L D
14 17 5 5 7 20:18 2 20
D W L W W
15 17 5 5 7 26:31 -5 20
D L W D D
16 17 5 4 8 25:25 0 19
D W D W W
17
Ceara Home
17 4 6 7 15:20 -5 18
D L L L D
18
Avai Away
17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
W L L W L
19 17 2 2 13 11:33 -22 8
L L L L L
20 17 1 4 12 11:28 -17 7
D L L L W
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