BRAZIL SERIE B
10.06.2026 23:00
Estadio Presidente Vargas
Referee: J. Pinheiro
Ceara
Match Timeline
Avai
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Luiz Otávio
Ceara
🟨
5'
Éder
Ceara
19'
Julio Cesar · Assist: Melk
Ceara
🟨
38'
Walace dos Santos França
Avai
45'
Melk · Assist: R. Ramos
Ceara
🟨
48'
Matheus Araújo
Ceara
🔄
57'
Wallison ↔ Wesley Gasolina
Avai
🔄
57'
Thayllon ↔ Sorriso
Avai
60'
Sorriso · Assist: Jean Lucas
Avai
🔄
62'
Wendel Silva ↔ Gabriel Amaral
Ceara
🟨
67'
Douglas Teixeira
Avai
🔄
70'
Fernando ↔ Sanchez
Ceara
🔄
70'
Matheus Araujo ↔ Gustavo Prado
Ceara
🔄
70'
Diego ↔ Richardson
Ceara
🔄
78'
R. Ramos ↔ Enzo Lodovico
Ceara
🔄
78'
DG ↔ Wenderson
Avai
🔄
78'
Walace Franca ↔ Leo Gamalho
Avai
🔄
82'
Guilherme Aquino ↔ Gabriel Simples
Avai
🔄
88'
Melk ↔ Matheusinho
Ceara
🟨
90'
Paulo Vitor
Avai
🔄
90+2'
Paulo Vitor ↔ Romildo Del Piage
Avai

Ceara vs Avai Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.2%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 62.2%
Draw 6.8%
Avai Win 31.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara1.2
Avai1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
12 GF / 13 GA
Avai Avai
WLDWL
11 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
6
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
5
4.73
Shots on Goal
3.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 11 matches
Avai Avai 11 matches
Ceara Statistic Avai
3 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
4 Losses 5
12 Goals For 11
13 Goals Against 15
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
6 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 4
4.73 Shots On Goal 3.36
13.64 Total Shots 11.45
5.36 Corners 3.73
49.8% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Avai. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Avai having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara sit 13 with 13 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 12:13, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Melk (3 goals), Juan Alano (2 goals), Matheus Araujo (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (2 assists), Fernandinho (1 assists), Julio Cesar (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Avai Analysis

Avai approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 10 points from 11 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 11:15 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Walace Franca (3 goals), Luiz Henrique (2 goals), Paulo Vitor (2 goals), with creative support from Thayllon (2 assists), Jean Lucas (1 assists), Allyson (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 7 times, Avai won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:14 from Ceara's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 4-2-3-1 / Avai 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 7, draws 5, Avai wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 13 7 5 26:13 13 46
D W W D W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16
Avai Away
25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17
Ceara Home
25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 25 5 7 13 29:36 -7 22
D L D L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
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