BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Presidente Vargas
Referee: J. Mendonca
Ceara
Match Timeline
Athletic Club
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Jhonathan
Athletic Club
🔄
46'
Fernando ↔ Sanchez
Ceara
🔄
46'
Julio Cesar ↔ Luiz Otavio
Ceara
🔄
60'
Juan Alano ↔ Vina
Ceara
🔄
60'
Richardson ↔ Caio
Ceara
🟨
66'
Diogo Batista de Souza
Athletic Club
🔄
68'
Diogo Batista ↔ Douglas Pele
Athletic Club
🔄
79'
Joao Miguel ↔ Pedro Oliveira
Athletic Club
🔄
79'
Max ↔ Luiz Fernando
Athletic Club
🔄
80'
Lucas Mugni ↔ Matheus Araujo
Ceara
🔄
85'
Jota ↔ J. Pool
Athletic Club
🟨
90+4'
José Wilson Neto
Ceara
🟨
90+6'
Ian Luccas
Athletic Club
🟨
90+3'
Jhan Pool Torres
Athletic Club

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.9%
-
BTTS No
55%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 35.5%
Draw 23.1%
Athletic Club Win 41.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara0.96
Athletic Club1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
15 GF / 20 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
16 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1
8
BTTS Yes
10
5
Over 2.5
4
3.88
Shots on Goal
3.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 16 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 16 matches
Ceara Statistic Athletic Club
4 Wins 5
5 Draws 7
7 Losses 4
15 Goals For 16
20 Goals Against 16
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1
8 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 11
5 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 4
3.88 Shots On Goal 3.31
13.19 Total Shots 11.75
5.88 Corners 4.75
49.8% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Athletic Club's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Ceara have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Athletic Club having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Athletic Club. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara sit 16 with 17 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats with a 15:20 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Melk (4 goals), Júlio (2 goals), Matheus Araújo (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Júlio (1 assists), Fernandinho (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Athletic Club Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Athletic Club have collected 22 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 16:15 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (3 goals), Lucas Belezi (1 goals), with creative support from Ian Luccas (2 assists), Lucas Belezi (1 assists), Diogo Batista de Souza (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 0 times, Athletic Club won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:0 from Ceara's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.9%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 3-5-2 / Athletic Club 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 0, draws 1, Athletic Club wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17
Ceara Home
25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
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