BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Francisco Stedile
Referee: R. Junior
Caxias
Match Timeline
Maringá
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Lucas Bonifacio
Maringá
🟨
15'
Moises Egert
Maringá
🟨
16'
Matheus Nunes
Caxias
🟨
27'
Adeilson
Maringá
29'
Salatiel
Caxias
🟨
34'
Salatiel
Caxias
🟨
34'
Vitor Feijao
Caxias
🟨
45+4'
Mauricio Ribeiro
Caxias
🔄
46'
Lucas Bonifacio ↔ Adeilson
Maringá
52'
Gabriel Santos
Maringá
🔄
65'
Roberto ↔ Victor Sa
Caxias
🔄
65'
Vitor Feijao ↔ Gaspar
Caxias
🔄
65'
Matheus Nunes ↔ Marcelo Freitas
Caxias
🔄
73'
Ravanelli ↔ Joao Lucas
Caxias
🔄
73'
Giovane Gomez ↔ Guilherme Pira
Maringá
🔄
81'
Salatiel ↔ Felipe Rangel
Caxias
🔄
81'
Ronald Camarao ↔ Danielzinho
Maringá
🔄
81'
Caique Calito ↔ Bruno Cheron
Maringá
🟥
87'
Jhow Alecxander
Maringá
🔄
89'
Edison Negueba ↔ Keven
Maringá
🟨
90+3'
Gabriel Santos
Maringá

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.6%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Caxias Win 57.6%
Draw 9.3%
Maringá Win 33.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caxias1.44
Maringá1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caxias Caxias
WWDLW
10 GF / 8 GA
Maringá Maringá
WLDWL
19 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.9
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
2.1
5
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caxias Caxias 10 matches
Maringá Maringá 10 matches
Caxias Statistic Maringá
4 Wins 4
3 Draws 2
3 Losses 4
10 Goals For 19
8 Goals Against 21
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.9
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 2.1
5 BTTS Yes 8
6 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 8
0 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Caxias's more proactive style and Maringá's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Maringá. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Maringá having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Caxias Analysis

Caxias are currently 8 in the standings with 15 points from 10 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 10:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Salatiel (4 goals), Calyson (2 goals), Vitor Feijao (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Maringá Analysis

So far, Maringá have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 13 points from 9 matches. The record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 19:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Edison Negueba (3 goals), Bruno Cheron (2 goals), Guilherme Pira (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Caxias won 1 times, Maringá won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:10 from Caxias's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.7%)
H2H summary: Caxias wins 1, draws 2, Maringá wins 3

Lineups

Caxias
Formation
Maringá
G. Busatto
G. Busatto
Felipe Albuquerque
Felipe Albuquerque
Ianson
Ianson
Mauricio Ribeiro
Mauricio Ribeiro
Roberto
Roberto
Grigor
Grigor
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes
Ravanelli
Ravanelli
Calyson
Calyson
Vitor Feijao
Vitor Feijao
Salatiel
Salatiel
Neto
Neto
Gabriel Souza
Gabriel Souza
Jhow Alecxander
Jhow Alecxander
Gabriel Santos
Gabriel Santos
Wendel Lomar
Wendel Lomar
Paulinho
Paulinho
Lucas Bonifacio
Lucas Bonifacio
Edison Negueba
Edison Negueba
Caique Calito
Caique Calito
Ronald Camarao
Ronald Camarao
Giovane Gomez
Giovane Gomez
Caxias 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
G. Busatto
2
Felipe Albuquerque
3
Ianson
4
Mauricio Ribeiro
🟨 45+4'
6
Roberto
↓ 65'
5
Grigor
8
Matheus Nunes
↓ 65' 🟨 16'
10
Ravanelli
↓ 73'
7
Calyson
11
Vitor Feijao
↓ 65' 🟨 34'
9
Salatiel
⚽ 29' ↓ 81' 🟨 34'
Substitutes
12
Marcelo
13
Windson
14
Mancha
15
Ronei
16
Victor Sa
↑ 65'
17
Gaspar
↑ 65'
18
Vitor Gabriel
19
Jhonatan Ribeiro
20
Felipe Rangel
↑ 81'
21
Marcelo Freitas
↑ 65'
22
Joao Lucas
↑ 73'
23
Luis Miguel
Maringá 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
25
Neto
2
Gabriel Souza
18
Jhow Alecxander
🟥 87'
3
Gabriel Santos
⚽ 52' 🟨 90+3'
4
Wendel Lomar
23
Paulinho
28
Lucas Bonifacio
↓ 46' 🟨 14'
7
Edison Negueba
↓ 89'
99
Caique Calito
↓ 81'
21
Ronald Camarao
↓ 81'
9
Giovane Gomez
↓ 73'
Substitutes
5
Kelvi Gomes
6
Thiago Rosa
8
Adeilson
↑ 46' 🟨 27'
10
Guilherme Pira
↑ 73'
11
Danielzinho
↑ 81'
13
Keven
↑ 89'
17
Iago Santana
20
Bruno Cheron
↑ 81'
29
Rai Natalino
77
Rafinha
Last matches: Caxias
11.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Floresta
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Ferroviária
1
0
W
30.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Anápolis
1
1
D
13.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Guarani Campinas
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Ituano
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Maranhão
0
0
D
17.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Paysandu
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Barra
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Amazonas
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Confiança
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Brusque
1
2
L
Last matches: Maringá
12.07.26
Ser
Maringá
Anápolis
1
0
W
04.07.26
Ser
Maringá
Volta Redonda
4
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Maringá
Inter De Limeira
2
2
D
15.06.26
Ser
Maringá
Maranhão
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Botafogo PB
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Santa Cruz
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Ypiranga-RS
4
1
W
11.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Guarani Campinas
0
5
L
03.05.26
Ser
Maringá
AO Itabaiana
4
2
W
26.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Ituano
1
4
L
20.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Brusque
2
3
L
13.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Figueirense
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Ferroviária
3
2
W
H2H: Caxias vs Maringá
21.06.26
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
1
1
D
30.08.25
H2H
Maringá
Caxias
3
0
L
10.06.18
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
3
0
W
03.06.18
H2H
Maringá
Caxias
1
1
D
10.07.16
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
1
2
L
19.06.16
H2H
Maringá
Caxias
3
0
L
Last matches: Caxias
11.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Floresta
0
0
D
30.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Anápolis
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Ituano
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Paysandu
2
0
W
27.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Confiança
1
0
W
H2H at home: Caxias
21.06.26
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
1
1
D
10.06.18
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
3
0
W
10.07.16
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
1
2
L
Last matches: Maringá
12.07.26
Ser
Maringá
Anápolis
1
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Maringá
Inter De Limeira
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Botafogo PB
1
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Ypiranga-RS
4
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Ituano
1
4
L
13.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Figueirense
3
1
W
H2H away: Maringá
21.06.26
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
1
1
D
10.06.18
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
3
0
L
10.07.16
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
1
2
W

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 7 4 3 17:14 3 25
W W D L W
2 13 7 3 3 20:14 6 24
W L W L D
3 14 7 3 4 15:10 5 24
W W W L W
4 14 7 2 5 22:19 3 23
W L L W L
5 14 6 5 3 25:14 11 23
L D D L W
6 14 7 1 6 19:15 4 22
W W W W D
7 14 6 4 4 27:24 3 22
W W D D D
8 14 6 4 4 15:12 3 22
W L L W W
9 14 5 6 3 13:10 3 21
D W D D L
10 14 5 5 4 15:14 1 20
D D W L L
11 14 5 4 5 16:16 0 19
L L D D D
12 14 5 3 6 17:19 -2 18
L W D W D
13 13 5 2 6 10:15 -5 17
L W L W W
14 14 5 2 7 13:19 -6 17
L L L D W
15 14 4 5 5 11:14 -3 17
W L D L D
16 13 4 4 5 12:18 -6 16
L D D W W
17 14 3 6 5 17:16 1 15
L W L D L
18 13 3 4 6 11:17 -6 13
W W L D L
19 14 3 2 9 8:14 -6 11
L L D W L
20 14 2 3 9 9:18 -9 9
L L D W L
Play-offs
Relegation