BRAZIL SERIE C
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Estadio Francisco Stedile

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.6%
Odds 2.11
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.97
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.6%
2.11
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.97
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
2.90
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Caxias Win 57.6%
Draw 9.3%
Maringá Win 33.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caxias1.44
Maringá1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caxias Caxias
WWDLW
10 GF / 8 GA
Maringá Maringá
WLDWL
19 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.9
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
2.1
5
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caxias Caxias 10 matches
Maringá Maringá 10 matches
Caxias Statistic Maringá
4 Wins 4
3 Draws 2
3 Losses 4
10 Goals For 19
8 Goals Against 21
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.9
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 2.1
5 BTTS Yes 8
6 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 8
0 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Caxias's more proactive style and Maringá's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Maringá. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Maringá having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Caxias Analysis

Caxias are currently 8 in the standings with 15 points from 10 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 10:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Salatiel (4 goals), Calyson (2 goals), Vitor Feijao (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Maringá Analysis

So far, Maringá have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 13 points from 9 matches. The record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 19:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Edison Negueba (3 goals), Bruno Cheron (2 goals), Guilherme Pira (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Caxias won 1 times, Maringá won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:9 from Caxias's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.7%)
H2H summary: Caxias wins 1, draws 1, Maringá wins 3
Last matches: Caxias
13.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Guarani Campinas
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Ituano
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Maranhão
0
0
D
17.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Paysandu
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Barra
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Amazonas
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Confiança
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Brusque
1
2
L
Last matches: Maringá
15.06.26
Ser
Maringá
Maranhão
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Botafogo PB
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Santa Cruz
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Ypiranga-RS
4
1
W
11.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Guarani Campinas
0
5
L
03.05.26
Ser
Maringá
AO Itabaiana
4
2
W
26.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Ituano
1
4
L
20.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Brusque
2
3
L
13.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Figueirense
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Ferroviária
3
2
W
H2H: Caxias vs Maringá
30.08.25
H2H
Maringá
Caxias
3
0
L
10.06.18
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
3
0
W
03.06.18
H2H
Maringá
Caxias
1
1
D
10.07.16
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
1
2
L
19.06.16
H2H
Maringá
Caxias
3
0
L
Last matches: Caxias
30.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Ituano
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Paysandu
2
0
W
27.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Confiança
1
0
W
H2H at home: Caxias
10.06.18
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
3
0
W
10.07.16
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
1
2
L
Last matches: Maringá
30.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Botafogo PB
1
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Maringá
Ypiranga-RS
4
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Ituano
1
4
L
13.04.26
Ser
Maringá
Figueirense
3
1
W
H2H away: Maringá
10.06.18
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
3
0
L
10.07.16
H2H
Caxias
Maringá
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 3.28
Home 2.11
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.75 1.37
Over 2.0 1.47
Over 2.25 1.72
Over 2.5 1.97
Over 2.75 2.24
Over 3.0 2.71
Over 3.25 3.05
Under 1.75 2.90
Under 2.0 2.52
Under 2.25 2.07
Under 2.5 1.82
Under 2.75 1.62
Under 3.0 1.42
Under 3.25 1.34
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 3.10
Home 1.95
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.10
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.50
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.5 1.95
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 4.5 6.00
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 9.50
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 2.5 1.85
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.24
Draw 3.16
Home 2.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.05
Draw 2.01
Home 2.73
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.39
Home 2.42
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.15
Over 1.5 1.27
Over 1.75 1.34
Over 2.0 1.44
Over 2.25 1.68
Over 2.5 1.92
Over 2.75 2.18
Over 3.0 2.59
Over 3.25 2.95
Over 3.5 3.20
Over 3.75 4.02
Over 4.0 5.50
Over 4.25 5.91
Over 4.5 6.25
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Under 0.5 8.70
Under 0.75 8.10
Under 1.0 7.40
Under 1.25 4.31
Under 1.5 3.14
Under 1.75 2.85
Under 2.0 2.43
Under 2.25 2.00
Under 2.5 1.77
Under 2.75 1.60
Under 3.0 1.39
Under 3.25 1.32
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.18
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.35
Draw 3.20
Home 2.02
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.18
Home 2.63
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.65
Draw 2.50
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.0 1.48
Over 2.25 1.73
Over 2.5 1.97
Over 2.75 2.25
Over 3.0 2.75
Over 3.25 3.10
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 3.75 4.20
Under 1.5 3.15
Under 2.0 2.38
Under 2.25 1.94
Under 2.5 1.72
Under 2.75 1.55
Under 3.0 1.37
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.18

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
2 10 5 3 2 15:10 5 18
L D W L W
3 10 5 3 2 13:10 3 18
W W D W L
4 10 5 2 3 17:13 4 17
L L W L W
5 10 5 2 3 15:12 3 17
D L W W W
6 10 5 1 4 12:12 0 16
W L L L L
7 10 4 4 2 10:9 1 16
W D W W D
8 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D W D
9 10 4 3 3 9:7 2 15
W D D W W
10 10 4 3 3 12:11 1 15
L W L W D
11 10 4 2 4 19:21 -2 14
D L D W L
12 10 4 2 4 7:9 -2 14
W W W L D
13 10 4 2 4 10:14 -4 14
W W D L W
14 10 3 4 3 9:11 -2 13
D D D L W
15 10 3 2 5 13:16 -3 11
D L L L L
16 10 2 5 3 12:10 2 11
L D L D D
17 10 3 1 6 11:15 -4 10
D W L L L
18 10 2 1 7 4:9 -5 7
L L D W L
19 10 1 4 5 8:15 -7 7
D L D W D
20 10 1 2 7 6:14 -8 5
L D L D L
Play-offs
Relegation