BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Francisco Stedile
Referee: B. Correia
Caxias
Match Timeline
Floresta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
58'
Joao Celeri ↔ Gustavinho
Floresta
🔄
58'
Garraty ↔ Matheusinho
Floresta
🔄
72'
Mancha ↔ Mauricio Ribeiro
Caxias
🔄
72'
Calyson ↔ Felipe Rangel
Caxias
🔄
72'
Jhonatan Ribeiro ↔ Gaspar
Caxias
🔄
72'
Matheus Anjos ↔ Joao Lucas
Caxias
🔄
75'
Roberto ↔ Victor Sa
Caxias
🔄
77'
Matheus Martins ↔ Rafinha
Floresta
🟨
83'
Eliandro
Floresta
🟨
84'
Gustavinho
Floresta
🔄
86'
Nonato ↔ Cedric
Floresta
🔄
86'
Eliandro ↔ Danrley
Floresta

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.4%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Caxias Win 55.4%
Draw 4.7%
Floresta Win 39.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caxias1.03
Floresta1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caxias Caxias
WWDLW
13 GF / 10 GA
Floresta Floresta
WLDWL
15 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.15
0.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
7
BTTS Yes
9
4
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caxias Caxias 13 matches
Floresta Floresta 13 matches
Caxias Statistic Floresta
5 Wins 5
5 Draws 4
3 Losses 4
13 Goals For 15
10 Goals Against 14
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
0.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
7 BTTS Yes 9
8 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 8
0 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Floresta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Floresta arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Floresta having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Caxias Analysis

So far, Caxias have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 17 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 12:10 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Floresta Analysis

Floresta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 18 points from 12 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 15:14 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Caxias won 1 times, Floresta won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Caxias's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
H2H summary: Caxias wins 1, draws 3, Floresta wins 1

Lineups

Caxias
Formation
Floresta
G. Busatto
G. Busatto
Felipe Albuquerque
Felipe Albuquerque
Ianson
Ianson
Mancha
Mancha
Roberto
Roberto
Breno Santos
Breno Santos
Marcelo Freitas
Marcelo Freitas
Matheus Anjos
Matheus Anjos
Calyson
Calyson
Jhonatan Ribeiro
Jhonatan Ribeiro
Salatiel
Salatiel
Dheimison
Dheimison
Jhony Douglas
Jhony Douglas
Garraty
Garraty
Valdo
Valdo
Eliandro
Eliandro
Nonato
Nonato
Joao Celeri
Joao Celeri
Matheus Martins
Matheus Martins
Islan
Islan
Caique
Caique
Eduardo
Eduardo
Caxias 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
G. Busatto
2
Felipe Albuquerque
3
Ianson
4
Mancha
↓ 72'
6
Roberto
↓ 75'
5
Breno Santos
8
Marcelo Freitas
10
Matheus Anjos
↓ 72'
7
Calyson
↓ 72'
19
Jhonatan Ribeiro
↓ 72'
9
Salatiel
Substitutes
12
Marcelo
13
Windson
14
Mauricio Ribeiro
↑ 72'
15
Grigor
16
Victor Sa
↑ 75'
17
K. C. Portela Torres
18
Vitor Gabriel
11
Vitor Feijao
20
Felipe Rangel
↑ 72'
21
Gaspar
↑ 72'
22
Joao Lucas
↑ 72'
23
Matheus Nunes
Floresta 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
Dheimison
5
Jhony Douglas
13
Garraty
↓ 58'
14
Valdo
15
Eliandro
↓ 86' 🟨 83'
17
Nonato
↓ 86'
18
Joao Celeri
↓ 58'
21
Matheus Martins
↓ 77'
23
Islan
29
Caique
30
Eduardo
Substitutes
1
Jeferson Souza
2
Cedric
↑ 86'
7
Gustavinho
↑ 58' 🟨 84'
8
Danrley
↑ 86'
6
Diego Matos
10
Matheusinho
↑ 58'
11
Rafinha
↑ 77'
25
Diogo Mourao
26
Thailor
27
Marco Antonio
Last matches: Caxias
26.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Botafogo PB
1
2
L
04.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Ferroviária
1
0
W
30.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Anápolis
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Maringá
1
1
D
13.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Guarani Campinas
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Ituano
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Maranhão
0
0
D
17.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Paysandu
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Barra
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Amazonas
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Confiança
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Brusque
1
2
L
Last matches: Floresta
27.07.26
Ser
Floresta
Maringá
1
1
D
04.07.26
Ser
Floresta
Guarani Campinas
0
0
D
27.06.26
Ser
Floresta
Barra
2
1
W
21.06.26
Ser
Floresta
Brusque
1
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Floresta
Figueirense
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Floresta
Confiança
1
0
W
25.05.26
Ser
Floresta
Paysandu
1
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Floresta
Amazonas
3
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Floresta
AO Itabaiana
0
0
D
04.05.26
Ser
Floresta
Maranhão
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Floresta
Botafogo PB
2
1
W
20.04.26
Ser
Floresta
Ferroviária
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Floresta
Santa Cruz
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Floresta
Inter De Limeira
2
1
W
H2H: Caxias vs Floresta
11.07.26
H2H
Caxias
Floresta
0
0
D
11.10.25
H2H
Caxias
Floresta
1
1
D
07.09.25
H2H
Floresta
Caxias
0
0
D
13.04.25
H2H
Caxias
Floresta
1
0
W
30.06.24
H2H
Floresta
Caxias
2
1
L
Last matches: Caxias
26.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Botafogo PB
1
2
L
30.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Anápolis
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Maringá
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Ituano
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Paysandu
2
0
W
27.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Confiança
1
0
W
H2H at home: Caxias
11.07.26
H2H
Caxias
Floresta
0
0
D
11.10.25
H2H
Caxias
Floresta
1
1
D
13.04.25
H2H
Caxias
Floresta
1
0
W
Last matches: Floresta
04.07.26
Ser
Floresta
Guarani Campinas
0
0
D
21.06.26
Ser
Floresta
Brusque
1
2
L
25.05.26
Ser
Floresta
Paysandu
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Floresta
AO Itabaiana
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Floresta
Botafogo PB
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Floresta
Inter De Limeira
2
1
W
H2H away: Floresta
11.07.26
H2H
Caxias
Floresta
0
0
D
11.10.25
H2H
Caxias
Floresta
1
1
D
13.04.25
H2H
Caxias
Floresta
1
0
L

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 3 4 21:15 6 27
W L W L W
2 15 7 5 3 28:15 13 26
W L D D L
3 15 8 1 6 21:16 5 25
W W W W W
4 15 7 4 4 18:17 1 25
L W W D L
5 15 7 3 5 15:11 4 24
L W W W L
6 15 7 2 6 23:21 2 23
L W L L W
7 15 6 5 4 28:25 3 23
D W W D D
8 15 6 5 4 15:12 3 23
D W L L W
9 15 6 3 6 18:19 -1 21
W L W D W
10 15 5 6 4 14:12 2 21
L D W D D
11 15 5 6 4 16:15 1 21
D D D W L
12 15 6 2 7 15:20 -5 20
W L L L D
13 15 5 5 5 13:18 -5 20
W D L D D
14 15 5 4 6 16:17 -1 19
L L L D D
15 15 5 3 7 11:19 -8 18
L D L W L
16 15 4 6 5 11:14 -3 18
D W L D L
17 15 4 5 6 13:18 -5 17
D W W W L
18 15 3 6 6 17:17 0 15
L L W L D
19 15 3 3 9 13:19 -6 12
W L L D W
20 15 3 3 9 9:15 -6 12
D L L D W
Play-offs
Relegation