BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Francisco Stedile
Referee: B. Correia
Caxias
Match Timeline
Floresta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
58'
Joao Celeri ↔ Gustavinho
Floresta
🔄
58'
Garraty ↔ Matheusinho
Floresta
🔄
72'
Mancha ↔ Mauricio Ribeiro
Caxias
🔄
72'
Calyson ↔ Felipe Rangel
Caxias
🔄
72'
Jhonatan Ribeiro ↔ Gaspar
Caxias
🔄
72'
Matheus Anjos ↔ Joao Lucas
Caxias
🔄
75'
Roberto ↔ Victor Sa
Caxias
🔄
77'
Matheus Martins ↔ Rafinha
Floresta
🟨
83'
Eliandro
Floresta
🟨
84'
Gustavinho
Floresta
🔄
86'
Nonato ↔ Cedric
Floresta
🔄
86'
Eliandro ↔ Danrley
Floresta

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.4%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Caxias Win 55.4%
Draw 4.7%
Floresta Win 39.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Caxias1.03
Floresta1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Caxias Caxias
WWDLW
13 GF / 10 GA
Floresta Floresta
WLDWL
15 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.15
0.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
7
BTTS Yes
9
4
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Caxias Caxias 13 matches
Floresta Floresta 13 matches
Caxias Statistic Floresta
5 Wins 5
5 Draws 4
3 Losses 4
13 Goals For 15
10 Goals Against 14
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
0.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
7 BTTS Yes 9
8 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 8
0 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Floresta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Floresta arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Floresta having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Caxias Analysis

So far, Caxias have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 17 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 12:10 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Floresta Analysis

Floresta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 18 points from 12 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 15:14 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Caxias won 1 times, Floresta won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Caxias's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
H2H summary: Caxias wins 1, draws 3, Floresta wins 1

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
W W D D W
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D D W L W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W L W D D
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W W D L D
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
W W W L D
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D L W L
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
L W L W L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
D W L D L
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation